· Summarecon management shared that the company can book Rp1.90tn this year, up by 58.3% YoY from last year’s achievement of Rp1.20tn. The company’s had initially expected to make around Rp1.60tn in line with market expectation of Rp1.60tn,
· Previously the company has hinted that that it expects to book Rp165.0bn of net income in 3Q10, or 36.4% YoY increase.
· At the end of this month, the company will start sales for its Bekasi Cluster where it targets Rp200.0bn of sales.
· SMRA is trading at 2011F PER of 22.8x and EV/EBITDA of 12.9x.
Tampilkan postingan dengan label Rp1. Tampilkan semua postingan
Tampilkan postingan dengan label Rp1. Tampilkan semua postingan
Senin, 11 Oktober 2010
Jumat, 08 Oktober 2010
Danareksa Tempo Scan Pacific (TSPC IJ, Rp1,600 BUY) Strong OTC player
Reinitiate coverage with BUY, TP of Rp2,050
Tempo Scan Pacific (TSPC), a well-known over-the-counter (OTC) drugs manufacturer, should see earnings grow by a healthy 18% CAGR in FY09-12F, supported by faster growth in the OTC segment of 12.5% (vs. only 10% for ethical products in FY10F). Its star products include Bodrex, Bodrexin, and Hemaviton, and sales should continue to remain firm given their strong brand equity. Improving purchasing power among middle income earners is another catalyst for growth, we believe, ultimately translating into margins expansion in the consumer products and cosmetics (CPC) division. Note that the gross margin for the CPC division was an excellent 54.1% in 1H10, its highest level since 2002. Other positives are the generous dividend payout and improving cash management. With such a promising outlook we place a BUY on the stock with a DCF based TP of Rp2,050 (WACC: 12.3%, TG: 5.0%), implying 19.4-16.7x PER10-11F. The company’s track record is good and sales have grown 18% CAGR over the past 3 years. This is implying 3.4x of GDP growth during the same period and also exceeds the sales growth of Kalbe Farma (KLBF) of 14%.
Supported by a growing middle class
TSPC’s consumer products and cosmetics (CPC) division stands to benefit from a burgeoning middle class which is enjoying improving purchasing power. Gross margins are already high and reached an excellent 54.1% in 1H10, their highest level since 2002, supported by rupiah strength since 90% of the costs are dollar related. Thanks also to the company’s strong brand equity, this margin should be sustained into 2H10, we feel, if not improving further. Price increase, though relatively moderate, should also help. According to the Nielsen survey, the number of middle income consumers – with average spending of Rp1.5mn to above Rp3mn per month – surged 26% YoY in FY09. A larger middle class - which is estimated to total 30mn people - should mean hearty sales growth and margins sustainability, we believe. Note that this division has managed to deliver average sales growth of near 25% over the past 3 years compared to only 13% for the pharmaceutical division.
Better inventory management
TSPC has continued to make supply chain management efficiencies. Hence, the company’s inventory days fell to below 70 days in 1H10, its lowest ever level. We feel confident that such a figure (70-72 days) can be sustained until at least YE11, an improvement from YE09’s 75 days. By comparison, note that Kalbe Farma, as the largest listed pharmaceutical company, has much longer inventory days of 120-125 days. Coupled with rupiah appreciation, operating margin should edge up to 11.2% this year from 9.9% in FY09. This underpins our expectation of brisk core profits growth in FY10F-11F of 27.8-15.2%. The PEG11F is only 0.9x, or lower than the consumer average of 1.2x.
To make acquisitions or go private?
The company is sitting on a very large amount of cash (Rp1.4tn as of June 2010 or 40% of its total assets). This gives TSPC plenty of options in how it enhances its business portfolio – either through new product development or by making acquisitions. Although the company retains acquisition plans, the management defends its conservative acquisitions stance on the grounds of synergy uncertainties. Rather, Bogamulia Nagadi as the major shareholder has gradually picked up TSPC shares lifting its shareholding to 95.15% in June 2010 from 95.1% in FY08. Thus, the likelihood of a complete takeover in the future is quite high, we believe. Notwithstanding the corporate actions, the company should better utilize its cash, we think, either through higher capex spending or simply by returning the cash to its shareholders. Capex spending has been relatively low at around 2.6% of sales over the past 3 years with the dividend payout ratio reaching a fairly generous 40-60%.
Tempo Scan Pacific (TSPC), a well-known over-the-counter (OTC) drugs manufacturer, should see earnings grow by a healthy 18% CAGR in FY09-12F, supported by faster growth in the OTC segment of 12.5% (vs. only 10% for ethical products in FY10F). Its star products include Bodrex, Bodrexin, and Hemaviton, and sales should continue to remain firm given their strong brand equity. Improving purchasing power among middle income earners is another catalyst for growth, we believe, ultimately translating into margins expansion in the consumer products and cosmetics (CPC) division. Note that the gross margin for the CPC division was an excellent 54.1% in 1H10, its highest level since 2002. Other positives are the generous dividend payout and improving cash management. With such a promising outlook we place a BUY on the stock with a DCF based TP of Rp2,050 (WACC: 12.3%, TG: 5.0%), implying 19.4-16.7x PER10-11F. The company’s track record is good and sales have grown 18% CAGR over the past 3 years. This is implying 3.4x of GDP growth during the same period and also exceeds the sales growth of Kalbe Farma (KLBF) of 14%.
Supported by a growing middle class
TSPC’s consumer products and cosmetics (CPC) division stands to benefit from a burgeoning middle class which is enjoying improving purchasing power. Gross margins are already high and reached an excellent 54.1% in 1H10, their highest level since 2002, supported by rupiah strength since 90% of the costs are dollar related. Thanks also to the company’s strong brand equity, this margin should be sustained into 2H10, we feel, if not improving further. Price increase, though relatively moderate, should also help. According to the Nielsen survey, the number of middle income consumers – with average spending of Rp1.5mn to above Rp3mn per month – surged 26% YoY in FY09. A larger middle class - which is estimated to total 30mn people - should mean hearty sales growth and margins sustainability, we believe. Note that this division has managed to deliver average sales growth of near 25% over the past 3 years compared to only 13% for the pharmaceutical division.
Better inventory management
TSPC has continued to make supply chain management efficiencies. Hence, the company’s inventory days fell to below 70 days in 1H10, its lowest ever level. We feel confident that such a figure (70-72 days) can be sustained until at least YE11, an improvement from YE09’s 75 days. By comparison, note that Kalbe Farma, as the largest listed pharmaceutical company, has much longer inventory days of 120-125 days. Coupled with rupiah appreciation, operating margin should edge up to 11.2% this year from 9.9% in FY09. This underpins our expectation of brisk core profits growth in FY10F-11F of 27.8-15.2%. The PEG11F is only 0.9x, or lower than the consumer average of 1.2x.
To make acquisitions or go private?
The company is sitting on a very large amount of cash (Rp1.4tn as of June 2010 or 40% of its total assets). This gives TSPC plenty of options in how it enhances its business portfolio – either through new product development or by making acquisitions. Although the company retains acquisition plans, the management defends its conservative acquisitions stance on the grounds of synergy uncertainties. Rather, Bogamulia Nagadi as the major shareholder has gradually picked up TSPC shares lifting its shareholding to 95.15% in June 2010 from 95.1% in FY08. Thus, the likelihood of a complete takeover in the future is quite high, we believe. Notwithstanding the corporate actions, the company should better utilize its cash, we think, either through higher capex spending or simply by returning the cash to its shareholders. Capex spending has been relatively low at around 2.6% of sales over the past 3 years with the dividend payout ratio reaching a fairly generous 40-60%.
Rabu, 06 Oktober 2010
NISP Summarecon hints of 36.4% YoY growth (SMRA, Rp1,110)
· Summarecon Agung shared that it expects to book Rp165.0bn of net income in 3Q10, or 36.4% YoY increase. The company’s full year target is Rp220.0bn and Rp1.12tn of revenue, or 20.0% YoY increase from last year. Its estimate is lower than market expectation for full year achievement of Rp237.8bn of net income and Rp1.58tn in sales.
· The company is optimist of the third quarter’s achievement as the sales of its projects in Serpong and Kelapa Gading have gone well. In 2011, the company targets the second phase for the development of Summarecon Serpong to become the revenue driver.
· SMRA is trading at 2011F PER of 22.8x and EV/EBITDA of 13.1x.
· The company is optimist of the third quarter’s achievement as the sales of its projects in Serpong and Kelapa Gading have gone well. In 2011, the company targets the second phase for the development of Summarecon Serpong to become the revenue driver.
· SMRA is trading at 2011F PER of 22.8x and EV/EBITDA of 13.1x.
Minggu, 03 Oktober 2010
NISP Barito Pacific income plunges by 93.5% YoY (BRPT, Rp1,300)
· Barito Pacific reported a net income of Rp24.9bn, plunging down by 93.5% YoY from Rp386.2bn the previous year despite that sales were up by 27.7% YoY to Rp 8.78tn.
· Higher growth in COGS made the company’s gross profit to decrease by 27.7% to Rp747.3bn. As such this seeped down to the bottom line.
· On a quarterly basis, the decline in performance was even more evident, as revenue decreased by 36.1% QoQ to Rp3.42tn. The company’s main revenue comes from petrochemicals business, which was hurt by a drop in polypropylene prices that have dropped by 17% in the second quarter to US$0.56/lb. As such bottom line was in the red with a net loss of Rp92.1bn in 2Q10.
· Higher growth in COGS made the company’s gross profit to decrease by 27.7% to Rp747.3bn. As such this seeped down to the bottom line.
· On a quarterly basis, the decline in performance was even more evident, as revenue decreased by 36.1% QoQ to Rp3.42tn. The company’s main revenue comes from petrochemicals business, which was hurt by a drop in polypropylene prices that have dropped by 17% in the second quarter to US$0.56/lb. As such bottom line was in the red with a net loss of Rp92.1bn in 2Q10.
Minggu, 26 September 2010
OSK Selamat Sempurna ( SMSM IJ, Rp1,020 BUY) A consistent performer
Initiate coverage with BUY, TP of Rp1,370
We initiate coverage on SMSM with a BUY recommendation and TP of Rp1,370, implying 12.9x- 11.7x 10F-11F PER. Our BUY call is underpinned by: 1) our confidence in the sustainability of the company’s revenues growth going forward, 2) the attractive 09-10F ROE of 25%-29% and generous dividend policy, and 3) the substantial excess capacity to accommodate further sales volume growth. In determining our target price, we used a DCF valuation with 3% terminal growth, multiple WACC ranging from between 13.7% to 13.8% and 2011 as the base year. The shares are attractive and currently trade at 9.6x-8.7x 10F-11F PER.
Revenues should continue to grow firmly
We forecast 10F-11F revenues growth of 15%-14% respectively. Note that the company has an excellent track record with 19 years of consecutive growth in revenues since 1992 – and the company even managed to book revenues growth in 2009 when global GDP contracted. Supporting the growth going forward are: 1) the enormous size of the global filter & radiator market, 2) Indonesia’s competitive cost structure which should translate into competitive pricing, 3) expectations that global GDP growth should be accompanied by brisker revenues growth following the global economic weakness in 2009, and 4) strong car sales growth in the domestic market (car sales surged 75.4% YoY in the first 7 months of the year) which should increase demand for replacement automotive filters.
Generous dividend policy
We expect a 10F-11F-12F dividend yield of 4.7%-5.2%-5.9%, respectively. Cash dividends should be paid consistently since the company’s dividend policy stipulates a minimum dividend payout ratio of 45% if the net profit is above Rp 30 bn. Note that in the last 3 years the company’s dividend payout ratios have been even higher than the minimum requirement (at 72%-94%-98% for the years of 07-08-09, respectively). Yet despite the generous dividend payout, the company has still managed to keep its debt at a conservative level (at the end of 2009, net gearing was only 31%). For 10F-11F, we forecast net gearing of 31%-17% respectively.
Excess capacity to accommodate further growth
In 2009, the utilization rate for filters, aluminum radiators and copper radiators production capacity were 55%, 84% and 24% respectively. The production of aluminum radiators has been growing very strongly (30.5% CAGR in 2005 to 2009). However, the company foresees more growth to come and has accordingly ramped up the production capacity, such that by the beginning of 2010 the aluminum filter production capacity had been doubled to 1.5 million pieces per year.
We initiate coverage on SMSM with a BUY recommendation and TP of Rp1,370, implying 12.9x- 11.7x 10F-11F PER. Our BUY call is underpinned by: 1) our confidence in the sustainability of the company’s revenues growth going forward, 2) the attractive 09-10F ROE of 25%-29% and generous dividend policy, and 3) the substantial excess capacity to accommodate further sales volume growth. In determining our target price, we used a DCF valuation with 3% terminal growth, multiple WACC ranging from between 13.7% to 13.8% and 2011 as the base year. The shares are attractive and currently trade at 9.6x-8.7x 10F-11F PER.
Revenues should continue to grow firmly
We forecast 10F-11F revenues growth of 15%-14% respectively. Note that the company has an excellent track record with 19 years of consecutive growth in revenues since 1992 – and the company even managed to book revenues growth in 2009 when global GDP contracted. Supporting the growth going forward are: 1) the enormous size of the global filter & radiator market, 2) Indonesia’s competitive cost structure which should translate into competitive pricing, 3) expectations that global GDP growth should be accompanied by brisker revenues growth following the global economic weakness in 2009, and 4) strong car sales growth in the domestic market (car sales surged 75.4% YoY in the first 7 months of the year) which should increase demand for replacement automotive filters.
Generous dividend policy
We expect a 10F-11F-12F dividend yield of 4.7%-5.2%-5.9%, respectively. Cash dividends should be paid consistently since the company’s dividend policy stipulates a minimum dividend payout ratio of 45% if the net profit is above Rp 30 bn. Note that in the last 3 years the company’s dividend payout ratios have been even higher than the minimum requirement (at 72%-94%-98% for the years of 07-08-09, respectively). Yet despite the generous dividend payout, the company has still managed to keep its debt at a conservative level (at the end of 2009, net gearing was only 31%). For 10F-11F, we forecast net gearing of 31%-17% respectively.
Excess capacity to accommodate further growth
In 2009, the utilization rate for filters, aluminum radiators and copper radiators production capacity were 55%, 84% and 24% respectively. The production of aluminum radiators has been growing very strongly (30.5% CAGR in 2005 to 2009). However, the company foresees more growth to come and has accordingly ramped up the production capacity, such that by the beginning of 2010 the aluminum filter production capacity had been doubled to 1.5 million pieces per year.
Minggu, 19 September 2010
NISP Bumi Resource Mineral obtains green light from stock exchange (BUMI, Rp1,830, Buy)
· Bumi Resource Mineral, Bumi Resource subsidiary for non coal business, has obtained the green light from the Indonesian Stock Exchange to proceed with its IPO plan as the bourse see that one of BRM’s business unit has started to produce revenue this month. Unfortunately, the bourse refuses to share data enlightening which business contributed revenue to BRM.
· Previously, Indonesia Stock Exchange could not agree BRM’s IPO plan as the company has not generated any revenue in its financial statement. Despite having given approval, there are no further details on the schedule.
· BRM plans to increase its equity through offering 20% of its shares to public and aim to raise up to US$300mn of fresh cash. This company controls Bumi Resources’ non coal assets such as Bumi Mauritania, Lemmington Investments, Komblo Bumi, Citra Palu Mineral and Multi Capital (which owned 24% stakes on Newmont Nusa Tenggara).
· The IPO plan will unlock value on Bumi’s non coal assets and would also be positive for BRM as it could utilize its assets to obtain financing for its projects.
· Currently BUMI is trading at 2011F PER of 11.6x and EV/EBITDA of 5.3x, Buy.
· Previously, Indonesia Stock Exchange could not agree BRM’s IPO plan as the company has not generated any revenue in its financial statement. Despite having given approval, there are no further details on the schedule.
· BRM plans to increase its equity through offering 20% of its shares to public and aim to raise up to US$300mn of fresh cash. This company controls Bumi Resources’ non coal assets such as Bumi Mauritania, Lemmington Investments, Komblo Bumi, Citra Palu Mineral and Multi Capital (which owned 24% stakes on Newmont Nusa Tenggara).
· The IPO plan will unlock value on Bumi’s non coal assets and would also be positive for BRM as it could utilize its assets to obtain financing for its projects.
· Currently BUMI is trading at 2011F PER of 11.6x and EV/EBITDA of 5.3x, Buy.
Minggu, 12 September 2010
NISP Akra to add 33 new fuel stations (AKRA, Rp1,230)
· Aneka Kimia Raya Corporindo won a public service obligation tender held by BPH Migas to 32.7mn kl fuel. The company itself will distribute as much as 103,000 kl and plans to add 33 fuel stations until the end of this year.
· The new stations will be located nation wide. AKRA will use its internal cash to fund the construction. It is estimated one station costs between Rp700mn to Rp3bn or total Rp23.1-Rp99.0bn. AKRA currently has Rp548.0bn in cash, which is more than enough to finance this project.
· Revenue from the new stations will start to contribute next year. The fuel distribution business is expected to contribute 70.0% of AKRA revenue.
· AKRA is trading at 2011F consensus PER of 10.5x and EV/EBITDA of 6.9x.
· The new stations will be located nation wide. AKRA will use its internal cash to fund the construction. It is estimated one station costs between Rp700mn to Rp3bn or total Rp23.1-Rp99.0bn. AKRA currently has Rp548.0bn in cash, which is more than enough to finance this project.
· Revenue from the new stations will start to contribute next year. The fuel distribution business is expected to contribute 70.0% of AKRA revenue.
· AKRA is trading at 2011F consensus PER of 10.5x and EV/EBITDA of 6.9x.
NISP Adaro aims to acquire Bhakti Energy Persada (ADRO, Rp1,790, Buy)
· Adaro is currently eyeing to acquire Bhakti Energi Persada (BEP), a coal company that operates two mines with total coal reserve of 115.6mn tons. BEP is an active mine as it has commenced coal mining activity last year. Annual coal production for 2010F is estimated at 700k tons with 2011F target of 2mn tons.
· BEP requires US$400mn to boost its production next year; however, the company has not managed to obtain such funding.
· Adaro foresees it would not meet any obstacles in this transaction as BEP is owned by, Benny Subianto and T.P. Rachmat, which is also the owner of Adaro. Nevertheless, this transaction will be categorized as an affiliated transaction.
· Adaro will employ its internal cash to finance this acquisition as the company cash position stood at Rp5.3tn as of 1H10.
· We still wait for Adaro to update the rationale as the reserve in BEP is relatively small compared to Adaro’s 930mn reserves. Also, whether the proceeds will be injected in BEP or paid to the existing shareholders.
· Separately, Adaro’s share price posted a huge decline in the last few days amid two factors, which are 1) weak 1H10 bottom line and 2) rumors on placement at Rp1,500 – Rp1,750. We view that the second factor has a largest role in the decline; however, the company’s IR confirmed that there are no such plan for Adaro. On weak 1H10 bottom line, we view that this was largely due to higher effective tax rate and Rp127.3bn of forex loss in 2Q10.
· The company has a potential of posting a better performance in 2H10 due to stable mining activities as the planned stripping ratio is scheduled to be unchanged compared to a QoQ increase in 2Q10.
· Thus, recent hefty correction opens a cheaper entry to ADRO as it is currently trading at 2011F PER of 10.5x and EV/EBITDA of 4.9x, Buy.
· BEP requires US$400mn to boost its production next year; however, the company has not managed to obtain such funding.
· Adaro foresees it would not meet any obstacles in this transaction as BEP is owned by, Benny Subianto and T.P. Rachmat, which is also the owner of Adaro. Nevertheless, this transaction will be categorized as an affiliated transaction.
· Adaro will employ its internal cash to finance this acquisition as the company cash position stood at Rp5.3tn as of 1H10.
· We still wait for Adaro to update the rationale as the reserve in BEP is relatively small compared to Adaro’s 930mn reserves. Also, whether the proceeds will be injected in BEP or paid to the existing shareholders.
· Separately, Adaro’s share price posted a huge decline in the last few days amid two factors, which are 1) weak 1H10 bottom line and 2) rumors on placement at Rp1,500 – Rp1,750. We view that the second factor has a largest role in the decline; however, the company’s IR confirmed that there are no such plan for Adaro. On weak 1H10 bottom line, we view that this was largely due to higher effective tax rate and Rp127.3bn of forex loss in 2Q10.
· The company has a potential of posting a better performance in 2H10 due to stable mining activities as the planned stripping ratio is scheduled to be unchanged compared to a QoQ increase in 2Q10.
· Thus, recent hefty correction opens a cheaper entry to ADRO as it is currently trading at 2011F PER of 10.5x and EV/EBITDA of 4.9x, Buy.
Selasa, 31 Agustus 2010
Mansek Bumi Resources :1H10 within our estimates (BUMI,Rp1,710,Buy,TP:Rp3,665)
Discussing BUMI is not about discussing its operational performance.Their operational performances are inline with our expectation with a positive bias toward 2H10.However debt is still worrying.BUMI recorded a US$89.9mn (vs 1H09 : US$17.3mn)contribution in equity net income of associated companies,less than additional burden taken from ballooning debt and rising interest payment from US$4,189.8mn debt.BUMI paid US$257.4mn in financial charges (vs 1H09 :US$47.9mn).Therefore main concern is the state of its financial burden.In 1H10,BUMI increase its asset sales to US$171.7mn (1Q10:US$93.7mn),balancing the interest payment.Bumi also suffered US$60mn in derivative book losses. The derivative losses according to the company is in relation with its options contract for its convertible bonds issuance.
Mansek ADRO:net profit below our and consensus estimates (ADRO,Rp1,980,Buy, TP:Rp2,600)
1H10 net profit at Rp1.2tn (-48.7%yoy,-66.1%QoQ)below ours and consensus estimates.
ADRO booked revenue 1H10 at Rp12.0tn (-7.1%yoy,-9.1%QoQ)below our and consensus estimates.
In US dollar basis,revenue was at US$1.3bn (+11.9%yoy),due to increased production and sales volume.Production volume increased 20.2%yoy and sales volume increase 22.0%yoy.
The strong US dollar revenue had been offset by strengthening of rupiah against US dollar;in the first 6 months in 2010,average rupiah/US$ exchange rate strengthened 17%to Rp9,189/US$compare with Rp11,067/US$.
Cost of revenues increased by 7.9%yoy,due to increasing stripping ratio and increasing production volume.ADRO ’s cash cost (excluding royalties)increased 6%yoy,dragging down operating margin and net margin.
ADRO trades at PER10F-11F of 16.0x and 11.8x,respectively,maintain Buy.
ADRO booked revenue 1H10 at Rp12.0tn (-7.1%yoy,-9.1%QoQ)below our and consensus estimates.
In US dollar basis,revenue was at US$1.3bn (+11.9%yoy),due to increased production and sales volume.Production volume increased 20.2%yoy and sales volume increase 22.0%yoy.
The strong US dollar revenue had been offset by strengthening of rupiah against US dollar;in the first 6 months in 2010,average rupiah/US$ exchange rate strengthened 17%to Rp9,189/US$compare with Rp11,067/US$.
Cost of revenues increased by 7.9%yoy,due to increasing stripping ratio and increasing production volume.ADRO ’s cash cost (excluding royalties)increased 6%yoy,dragging down operating margin and net margin.
ADRO trades at PER10F-11F of 16.0x and 11.8x,respectively,maintain Buy.
NISP Bumi Resources managed to deliver satisfying 1H10 results (BUMI, Rp1,710, Buy)
· During 1H10, Bumi Resources managed to become the largest coal producer to post a positive growth in its operating income at US$531.8mn, 5.4% YoY higher from US$504.6mn a year earlier. In addition, all of the coal producers in our coverage posted negative growth during the period, due to lower selling price and higher direct cost. Bumi’s result came in inline with our expectation as 1H10 operating income came in at 45.2% to our and consensus’ full year expectation.
· However, as the company kept improving its tax policy in order to cope with recent issue, the company deducts its tax payables that caused a higher effective tax at 48.6% compared to 40.9% in 1H109. Hence, bottom line decreased by 30.0% YoY to US$134.6mn from US$192.3mn. The company’s tax payable position in 1H10 decreased to US$249.0mn from US$590.2mn a year earlier.
· Operational wise, revenue grew by 25.1% YoY on the back of higher sales volume and stronger ASP in 1H10. This improvement managed to overcome stronger COGS as the company boosted its production during 1H10.
· On quarterly basis, the company also managed to demonstrate positive performance on the back of stable sales volume and 14.2% QoQ increase in ASP.
· In all, Bumi Resources managed to post strong results in 1H10 and we foresee it will continue in 2H10 due to stable high selling price as the company is about to deliver another 10mn tons – 12mn tons at US$104/ton to Japan in the next three quarters.
· Currently the company is trading at 2011F PER of 10.9x and EV/EBITDA of 5.1x, Buy.
· However, as the company kept improving its tax policy in order to cope with recent issue, the company deducts its tax payables that caused a higher effective tax at 48.6% compared to 40.9% in 1H109. Hence, bottom line decreased by 30.0% YoY to US$134.6mn from US$192.3mn. The company’s tax payable position in 1H10 decreased to US$249.0mn from US$590.2mn a year earlier.
· Operational wise, revenue grew by 25.1% YoY on the back of higher sales volume and stronger ASP in 1H10. This improvement managed to overcome stronger COGS as the company boosted its production during 1H10.
· On quarterly basis, the company also managed to demonstrate positive performance on the back of stable sales volume and 14.2% QoQ increase in ASP.
· In all, Bumi Resources managed to post strong results in 1H10 and we foresee it will continue in 2H10 due to stable high selling price as the company is about to deliver another 10mn tons – 12mn tons at US$104/ton to Japan in the next three quarters.
· Currently the company is trading at 2011F PER of 10.9x and EV/EBITDA of 5.1x, Buy.
NISP Adaro posted soft revenue despite stronger sales volume in 1H10 (ADRO, Rp1,980, Buy)
· Despite posting 22.0% YoY growth in sales volume, Adaro logged in a disappointing 48.7% YoY decrease in net profit to Rp1.15tn in 1H10 from Rp2.24tn a year earlier. Such decrease was due to three key factors, which are 1) lower ASP, 2) higher direct cost and 3) forex translation on stronger Rupiah. The company’s bottom line came in only 28.9% to our and consensus’ full year expectation.
· During 1H10, the company’s ASP dipped by 10% YoY to around US$61/ton in 1H10 period. However, as the company managed to improve its sales volume by 22.0% YoY on higher coal production, Adaro’s revenue in US$ term increased by 11.9% to US$1,304mn in 1H10 from US$1,165mn a year ago. Nevertheless, stronger Rupiah, which increased by 17.0% YoY to an average of Rp9,189/US$ in 1H10 from Rp11,067 in 1H09, eroded the company’s revenue that was booked in Rupiah to Rp11.95tn from Rp12.90tn in the same period.
· At the same time, higher coal sales caused an extra direct cost of 7.4% YoY to Rp8.0tn, where this was largely due to the increase in planned stripping ratio from 5.0x to 5.5x due to mining the deeper part of the mine as well as the 20% production increase compared to 1H09.
· Such weak condition was also added by higher forex loss and an increase in effective tax rate of 54.4% from 47.1% a year earlier. As such, the company’s bottom line eroded significantly in 1H10.
· On quarterly basis, sales volume was lower due to heavy rainfall and affected the company revenue, which decreased by 9.7% QoQ. This was also added by forex loss and higher interest expense on additional bonds issued last year. Thus, net income plunged by 66.1% YoY.
· In all, despite weak bottom line, the company’s revenue and operating income came in inline with our expectation. The risk is weather condition in 2H10, which may affect sales volume and profitability in the upcoming quarters.
· Currently Adaro is trading at 2011F PER of 11.6x and EV/EBITDA of 5.4x, Buy.
· During 1H10, the company’s ASP dipped by 10% YoY to around US$61/ton in 1H10 period. However, as the company managed to improve its sales volume by 22.0% YoY on higher coal production, Adaro’s revenue in US$ term increased by 11.9% to US$1,304mn in 1H10 from US$1,165mn a year ago. Nevertheless, stronger Rupiah, which increased by 17.0% YoY to an average of Rp9,189/US$ in 1H10 from Rp11,067 in 1H09, eroded the company’s revenue that was booked in Rupiah to Rp11.95tn from Rp12.90tn in the same period.
· At the same time, higher coal sales caused an extra direct cost of 7.4% YoY to Rp8.0tn, where this was largely due to the increase in planned stripping ratio from 5.0x to 5.5x due to mining the deeper part of the mine as well as the 20% production increase compared to 1H09.
· Such weak condition was also added by higher forex loss and an increase in effective tax rate of 54.4% from 47.1% a year earlier. As such, the company’s bottom line eroded significantly in 1H10.
· On quarterly basis, sales volume was lower due to heavy rainfall and affected the company revenue, which decreased by 9.7% QoQ. This was also added by forex loss and higher interest expense on additional bonds issued last year. Thus, net income plunged by 66.1% YoY.
· In all, despite weak bottom line, the company’s revenue and operating income came in inline with our expectation. The risk is weather condition in 2H10, which may affect sales volume and profitability in the upcoming quarters.
· Currently Adaro is trading at 2011F PER of 11.6x and EV/EBITDA of 5.4x, Buy.
Jumat, 27 Agustus 2010
NISP Bank Permata net profit jumps by 62.1% YoY (BNLI, Rp1,480)
• Bank Permata net profit jumps by 62.1% YoY to Rp526.5bn backed by higher consolidated net interest income by 21.2% YoY to Rp1.58tn. This compensated for higher non interest loss of 10.5% YoY.
• CASA growth was strong as low cost of funds sources now made up 42% compared to 36% last year. The company’s CEO explained that loans growth for the company was 19.0% YoY to Rp43.0tn in 1H10.
• On the quality asset side gross NPL was lower with 3.7% and LDR was higher at 88.0%. CAR was also boosted to 13.9% from 3.2%.
• CASA growth was strong as low cost of funds sources now made up 42% compared to 36% last year. The company’s CEO explained that loans growth for the company was 19.0% YoY to Rp43.0tn in 1H10.
• On the quality asset side gross NPL was lower with 3.7% and LDR was higher at 88.0%. CAR was also boosted to 13.9% from 3.2%.
Kamis, 19 Agustus 2010
NISP Newmont Nusa Tenggara’s IPO to convey positive benefit for Bumi Resources (BUMI, Rp1,430, Buy)
It is reported that as an option to finance capex, Newmont is choosing to sell its share to the general public, where this plan will be proposed in the company’s EGM today. Initial news stated that Newmont aims for US$800.0mn of cash from banks, investors or other third parties for its capital expenditure, which will be secured by all or a majority of its assets. The company plans to sell 1.13bn of new shares (10%) in this IPO.
The EGM will also discuss the sale for as much as 880 million shares from PT Pukuafu Indah, one of the shareholders, during the IPO.
Newmont Nusa Tenggara is owned by Nusa Tenggara Partnership (56%), Indonesia Marbaga Investama (2%) Pukuafu Indah Enterprises (18%) and Multi Daerah Bersaing (24%). The latter is owned by Bumi Resources (75%).
A high IPO price for Newmont will help the value of Bumi’s ownership in Newmont, as the latter company has acquired 24.0% ownership with total cost of US$867mn. We also see that Newmont’s IPO may lower attractiveness of Bumi Resources Mineral, but it will provide clearer valuation for BRM as it owns 24% of Newmont. This would enable BRM to utilize the ownership, to obtain financing for development of its projects, such as Herald.
Separately, Bumi’s share price has freefell by 17.3% to Rp1,430 yesterday from Rp1,730 early this month, sparked by news reporting that China’s domestic thermal coal supply outstripped its demand, due to shrinking power consumption in energy-intensive heavy industries and an increase in hydropower generation. The news dragged down coal price (Newcastle) to the lowest level this year at US$88.5/ton last week or 17.9% lower from its highest level this year at US$107.9/ton in May 2010.
The news conveyed negative sentiment for Bumi Resources as lower coal price may affect Bumi’s ASP target for 2010F at US$67/ton, despite strong operational data in 1H10.
Nevertheless, recent hefty correction provide attractive valuation as Bumi is currently trading at 2011F PER of 9.3x and EV/EBITDA of 4.7x, Buy.
The EGM will also discuss the sale for as much as 880 million shares from PT Pukuafu Indah, one of the shareholders, during the IPO.
Newmont Nusa Tenggara is owned by Nusa Tenggara Partnership (56%), Indonesia Marbaga Investama (2%) Pukuafu Indah Enterprises (18%) and Multi Daerah Bersaing (24%). The latter is owned by Bumi Resources (75%).
A high IPO price for Newmont will help the value of Bumi’s ownership in Newmont, as the latter company has acquired 24.0% ownership with total cost of US$867mn. We also see that Newmont’s IPO may lower attractiveness of Bumi Resources Mineral, but it will provide clearer valuation for BRM as it owns 24% of Newmont. This would enable BRM to utilize the ownership, to obtain financing for development of its projects, such as Herald.
Separately, Bumi’s share price has freefell by 17.3% to Rp1,430 yesterday from Rp1,730 early this month, sparked by news reporting that China’s domestic thermal coal supply outstripped its demand, due to shrinking power consumption in energy-intensive heavy industries and an increase in hydropower generation. The news dragged down coal price (Newcastle) to the lowest level this year at US$88.5/ton last week or 17.9% lower from its highest level this year at US$107.9/ton in May 2010.
The news conveyed negative sentiment for Bumi Resources as lower coal price may affect Bumi’s ASP target for 2010F at US$67/ton, despite strong operational data in 1H10.
Nevertheless, recent hefty correction provide attractive valuation as Bumi is currently trading at 2011F PER of 9.3x and EV/EBITDA of 4.7x, Buy.
Mansek Panin Bank:update from a company visit (PNBN,Rp1,180,Sell,TP: Rp1,050)
We visited Panin Bank yesterday with the following highlights:
The bank expects loans to grow by 30.0%yoy this year to Rp56tn,mainly
supported by commercial and consumer segment.
The bank estimated a gain of Rp300bn from the selling of its 14%
ownership in ANZ Panin Bank to ANZ Banking Group Limited.This
transaction is currently awaiting for BI ’s approval,hence no certainty yet
when the gain will be booked.
There is no further news on the possible acquisition of Panin Bank by other
parties.
At current price,Panin Bank is trading at 2011F P/BV of 2.3x and PER of
19.3x.We maintained our sell recommendation on the counter.
The bank expects loans to grow by 30.0%yoy this year to Rp56tn,mainly
supported by commercial and consumer segment.
The bank estimated a gain of Rp300bn from the selling of its 14%
ownership in ANZ Panin Bank to ANZ Banking Group Limited.This
transaction is currently awaiting for BI ’s approval,hence no certainty yet
when the gain will be booked.
There is no further news on the possible acquisition of Panin Bank by other
parties.
At current price,Panin Bank is trading at 2011F P/BV of 2.3x and PER of
19.3x.We maintained our sell recommendation on the counter.
Senin, 16 Agustus 2010
NISP Bumi Resources disburses US$57mn for dividend (BUMI, Rp1,580, Buy)
Last week, Bumi announced its 2009 dividend of US$57mn or equal to 30.0% of its 2009 net income of US$190.45mn. The amount translated into Rp27.68/share of dividend or a yield of 1.75%
Bumi also restated its plan to lower its debt position by US$0.8bn to US$1bn in one year’s time while at the same time integrating and maximizing the value of high potential non coal assets the company has acquired into the group's consolidated performance.
This event is inline with our expectation and we foresee no impact to the company’s share price as it only yields 1.75%.
Currently BUMI is trading at 2011F of 10.1x and EV/EBITDA of 4.9x, Buy.
Bumi also restated its plan to lower its debt position by US$0.8bn to US$1bn in one year’s time while at the same time integrating and maximizing the value of high potential non coal assets the company has acquired into the group's consolidated performance.
This event is inline with our expectation and we foresee no impact to the company’s share price as it only yields 1.75%.
Currently BUMI is trading at 2011F of 10.1x and EV/EBITDA of 4.9x, Buy.
Senin, 02 Agustus 2010
Mansek INKP 1H10 net income is above our estimate (INKP,Rp1,760,Neutral,TP:Rp1,950)
INKP posted 1H10 net profit of US$91mn (+4.0%qoq),which is above our estimates.
All P&L accounts yoy and qoq growth are due to increase in selling price by 34%yoy and 13%qoq.
Pulp price in July 2010 seems to reach its peak with several up and down in that month.We heard that selling price for August delivery drop considerably.Therefore,even though the company ’s performance is likely to surpass our FY10F estimates,we do not think the outperformance is significant.
We have a Neutral recommendation on INKP which currently is trading at PER10-11F of 8.9-7.4x.
All P&L accounts yoy and qoq growth are due to increase in selling price by 34%yoy and 13%qoq.
Pulp price in July 2010 seems to reach its peak with several up and down in that month.We heard that selling price for August delivery drop considerably.Therefore,even though the company ’s performance is likely to surpass our FY10F estimates,we do not think the outperformance is significant.
We have a Neutral recommendation on INKP which currently is trading at PER10-11F of 8.9-7.4x.
Mansek Gajah Tunggal:Net income up 186.8%yoy (GJTL,Rp1,230,Not Rated)
Net sales 1H10 was Rp4.8tn (+27.3%yoy)due to strong volume growth.The company targeted net sales may up by 20- 25%this year,due to increasing demand from Michelin.Demand from Michelin in FY09 was 1.9mn unit,in FY10F was 3mn units and up to 5mn unit in 2011.
Around 40%of sales contributed from export.In FY09 the company sales radial totaling 7.6mn unit,bias tire was 3.5mn and motorcycle tire was 16.9mn unit.
Gross margin 1H10 up to 20.7%from 15.9%in previous year due to successful managing of raw materials costs and
passing on some of the increases to customers as well as a higher margin product mix.Resulted net income 1H10 totaling Rp415bn (+186.8%yoy).
We don ’t cover GJTL,currently only 1 analyst cover it.Based on consensus,it trades at PER10F of 7.3x.
Around 40%of sales contributed from export.In FY09 the company sales radial totaling 7.6mn unit,bias tire was 3.5mn and motorcycle tire was 16.9mn unit.
Gross margin 1H10 up to 20.7%from 15.9%in previous year due to successful managing of raw materials costs and
passing on some of the increases to customers as well as a higher margin product mix.Resulted net income 1H10 totaling Rp415bn (+186.8%yoy).
We don ’t cover GJTL,currently only 1 analyst cover it.Based on consensus,it trades at PER10F of 7.3x.
Sabtu, 31 Juli 2010
Mandiri Sekuritas ACE Hardware: 1H10 net income was below our and consensus (ACES, Rp1,840, Neutral, TP: Rp1,790)
ACES booked 1H10 revenue of Rp737.3bn (+19.2%yoy), and net income of Rp77.6bn (+15.5%yoy), which is below our estimates and consensus.
We have a Neutral recommendation on ACES, it trades at PER10F of 18.9x.
We have a Neutral recommendation on ACES, it trades at PER10F of 18.9x.
Mandiri Sekuritas Panin Bank: 1H10 results above our expectations and consensus estimates (PNBN, Rp1,010, Sell, TP: Rp780)
Panin Bank reported net profit of Rp786bn in 1H10 (-+131.4% yoy), which was above our expectation and consensus estimates.
The bank reported higher than expected non interest income as the company recorded higher gain from the selling of marketable securities (Rp345.1bn in 1H10 vs Rp103.3Bn in 1H09).
At present, Bank Panin is trading at 2011F P/BV of 2.1x and PER of 23.6x. We are reviewing our forecast for the bank, yet maintained our sell recommendation for the time being.
The bank reported higher than expected non interest income as the company recorded higher gain from the selling of marketable securities (Rp345.1bn in 1H10 vs Rp103.3Bn in 1H09).
At present, Bank Panin is trading at 2011F P/BV of 2.1x and PER of 23.6x. We are reviewing our forecast for the bank, yet maintained our sell recommendation for the time being.
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