JPM big upward revision to come on ANTM

Aneka Tambang (ANTM) – Bottom-line: 2Q10 results well ahead of consensus, the stock could be trading closer to 12x FY10 P/E, versus consensus showing of 15x. Quarter-on-quarter pick-up was impressive: EBIT almost doubled from Rp343bn to Rp745bn, pretax profit (normalized for FX) rose 125% from Rp348bn to Rp783bn, net profit (normalized for FX) rose 136% from Rp256bn to Rp570bn. This is a BIG IF, but if ANTM can sustain 2Q10 profitability in third and fourth quarter, the company may deliver Rp2trn normalized net profit for FY10E, slightly under 10x P/E based on yesterday close. Consensus net profit stands at Rp1.37trn, JPMorgan’s forecast stands at Rp1.24trn. BUY.

Nickel price averaged at US$20,078/MT in 1Q10 and US$22,423/MT in 2Q10, while current spot is at US$20,555/MT. Gold price averaged at around US$1,110/oz in 1Q10 and US$1,195/oz in 2Q10, while current spot is at US$1242/oz. I suspect the positive surprise factors in ANTM’s 2Q10 results were: (1) Gold price, and (2) Gold production output, being masked by the decline in gold trading activities which yield much thinner profit margins.