Investment Highlights:
New forecasted crude palm oil price and natural rubber to drop as much as 30% and 24% repectively
Prior year acquisitions result higher output in 2009F
Higher output does not necessarily help the falling revenue
Bigger planted area could mean higher cost due to soaring fertilizer price
Finance cost burdens corporate's performance
Buy back program has no significant impact
Diluted is another bad story
Recommendation
Firstly, after overview that UNSP has potential cut on net earning in 2009F from
2008F. Secondly, calculation by using DCF method gives us IDR 225 per share of
UNSP's to be fair value. Lastly, the comparison is below average. Although UNSP
is not at the most discounted one, we then call HOLD on UNSP after SELL call,
upgrading our recommendation from our previous report on UNSP.
We lower our target price from IDR 300 to IDR 225 to be UNSP fair price.
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