Although we expect BCA’s NIM to ease, we believe its profit is unlikely to contract in 2009, as its 2007 experience suggested. The bank’s variable-rate government bonds have dropped significantly on maturity. Excessive provisioning coverage should also provide enough P/L buffer. A lower tax rate offers further upside potential. BCA continues to be an excellent deposit-taker. We upgrade it to Outperform from Neutral given its recent unwarranted share-price correction on fears of a NIM decline. Our DDM-based target price remains Rp3,425.
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