On Friday, February 6th 2009, BMRI hold analyst meeting which is attended by company BOD and some its general manager to discuss company performance in 2009 and further disclosure about company risk management. The company have not released 2008 audited figure yet and will be announced it in late march 2009. The company mostly talked about BMRI risk management system, so it isn’t affect significantly to our valuation model.
As our prediction before, the state owned bank benefited by increasing third party fund which was came from small and private bank’s origin fund worrying about banks liquidation. Unlike BBCA which has source of fund from retail and small business, The banks third party funds mostly come from whole sale (wealthy person and corporate client) which was more sensitive to interest compare to retail client. Its client mostly prefer to switch their saving deposit account to time deposit account because of interest rate increasing climate. As the consequence, BMRI’s CASA ratio decline from 59% in Q3 2008 to 57% in FY 2008.
Based on company data, we revised some of our assumption in our valuation especially about credit and third party fund (TPF) in 2008. Because of change in data, we reduced BMRI EPS in 2009 by 15.29 from early asumption to Rp. 216. Decreasing NIM potentially and increasing NPL will be BMRI major issue in the ox year. We maintain our SELL recommendation with TP Rp. 1.226 (Previously Rp. 1.136), which calculated based on Devidend Discount Model.
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