Consumer spending rose for the first time in seven months as consumers eased back into the marketplace. But don’t expect a quick return to consumers’ free-spending ways.The 0.6 percent increase in consumer spending in January, reported by the Commerce Department earlier Monday, may speak more to seasonal anomalies than to changes in consumer patterns.
At best, it may be a sign that the worst declines are over.
Consumers typically spend the least in January and February. Usually, they are taking a breather from go-for-broke spending during the holidays.
Consumers cut back sharply on spending at the end of 2008, so January may have come on a bit stronger as a result. “Consumers remain very worried, almost to the point of paralysis,” says Adam York of Wachovia. He says he expects the report is consistent with his expectation that the first quarter gross domestic product will not be as bad as it was in the fourth quarter.
Another sure sign that it’s too soon to call for a rebound in consumer spending is that the savings rate surged in January, according to Scott Hoyt, an economist at Moody’s Economy.com.
The report showed personal savings rose to its highest level since 1995 as consumers continue to squirrel away cash amid economic and job insecurity. more...
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