Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.
Roger.Lum@morganstanley.com, Samantha.Horton
Maintain Overweight; Lift price target to Rp9,238: Our new price target implies 2010e 13x P/E and 3.4x P/B in 2010e. 3Q net profit (Rp1.8 tn) rose 27%YoY, while 9M09 net profit (Rp5.3 tn) was up up 24%, reaching 85% of our old FY09 forecast, despite record provisions (equivalent to 571bp of loans) in 3Q09.
NIM stable QoQ: After losing some 86bp in three consecutive quarters, NIM remained flat QoQ in 3Q. While it is too early to declare that NIM has bottomed, we note that that there have been improvements in loan/ asset mix, and progressively higher LDR (87.6% now).
Compelling valuations: Despite rising 53% YTD, we think the stock remains attractive at 2.6x F10e BVPS, 9.9x F10e EPS with 19.7% EPS CAGR for 2008-11e and ROE of 27-28%. There is upside to our EPS potentially from lower provisions, lower taxes, lower costs, higher fee growth, better NIM.
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