A Cup of Tea 24 May'10

Time to Investment

If You Were a Pessimistic “Leave it” ... If You Were Not, You Can Add Some of Your Portfolios at Very Cheap Prices for Midterm Investment and Enjoy The Gain by The End of The Year (friend said).

The Jakarta market fell 8.2% this week and 12.45% from 52 weeks higher, pushing it to third from first in the ranking of Southeast Asia's best performing markets. Last week JSX drop to the lowest level at 2584.98 in the morning (15.90% from 52 weeks higher) after that JSX slightly rebound and closed at 2623.22 levels. Thai market is now the top performer, followed by Philippines.

Our Economic
Indonesia’s GDP grew at a 5.7% YoY rate from last year’s first quarter. Indonesia’s credit growth is one of its most important drivers, contributing at least one-third of economic growth. Loan-growth trend is already encouraging. Indonesian banks' balance sheets are robust with a low average loan-to-deposits ratio. Against the backdrop of high consumer confidence in Indonesia, banks are also increasingly willing to lend and this should drive economic growth.

Indonesia an upgrade in its sovereign credit rating to BB from BB- by S&P in March 2010. The S&P rating also comes with a positive outlook, suggesting a bias toward further upgrade in the next six to 18 months.
Inflation should be well in the coming months on top of a 10% electricity hike in July, and we could see a more “Neutral” policy language from BI. Despite recent volatility, we expect USD-IDR can still at range 8500-9500 in the coming months.


It’s Time? … YES

Yes, the JSX lowest level last week was at 2584.98 or 12.61x PE2010 or 10.77x PE2011 (PE Consensus) before closing at 2623.22, very good for entry level.

Overall I believe our fundamental economic still strong and The European problem just give minority impact on our economic. I highly recommended to start accumulate shares with good fundamental.

My JSX target was still at 3050 or 14.88x PE2010 Consensus.






Consensus TP & Potensial Upside



















Bang Juntri
DISCLAIMER: This report is issued by Bang Juntri. Although the contents of this document may represent the personal opinion of Bang Juntri. We cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness.