The company has disclosed that one of its founding shareholders, PT Tunas Bhakti Manunggal, has sold its entire stake of 17.1% to the largest shareholder, PT Indika Mitra Energy. The crossing transaction displayed a price of Rp2400, a small discount to last traded price of Rp2,625.
an attractively valued asset, purchase by main shareholders reflect confidence and may serve as positive share price catalyst (Not Rated by JPMorgan research). INDY received US$129mn dividend income from coal subsidiary Kideco (46% owned) based on FY09 (ending Dec) performance. Compared to INDY’s market cap of US$1.51bn, the dividend income alone implies an FY09 P/E ratio of under 12x, cheap compared to its peers.
The US$98/ton thermal coal settlement price for JFY11 and Kideco’s volume target of 29mn tons for FY10 (vs. 24.8mn tons for FY09) would mean that dividend income from Kideco may grow 37% to around US$170mn in FY10. Assuming zero earnings and equity value contribution from INDY’s other subsidiaries (Tripatra, Petrosea, Cirebon energy, Santan), the implied FY10 P/E is under 9x, steep discount compared to its peers.
If we assign a fair FY10 P/E multiple of 12x for Kideco, and add the back-of-the-envelope value estimates for other subsidiaries, we would arrive at around Rp4300 per share fair value for INDY.
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