● July auto sales recorded another record high for both cars and motorcycles, driven by: 1) low interest rates, 2) a stable and positive macro environment, and 3) a stronger rupiah rate, enabling companies to offer more discounts/promotions. We believe that the July auto expo also helped contributing to the strong growth.
● Although the YTD YoY growth looked to be higher than our estimates (+45% for cars and +15% for motorcycles), we believe that the YoY growth will slow down for the rest of the year due to the higher-base effect in 2H09.
● Astra’s market share remained solid, especially in motorcycles, which recorded a 48% market share in July.
● Interestingly, despite the strong earnings and volume numbers in the past one month, Astra’s share price has underperformed the market by 5% in the past five months. We maintain our NEUTRAL rating on the stock with a 12% potential upside, and would only turn more positive if the stock were to retreat below the Rp45,000 level.
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