Strength in the core business: Net profits from Astra’s core Auto businesses (2W, 4W and components) grew 17% q/q, 128% y/y and were in line with JPM forecasts for 2Q. The Auto value chain (core auto’s and financing) accounted for 73% of 2Q profits.
2W Industry structure stabilizes – unit profitability recovers: Unit profitability at AHM stood at Rp1.2m per unit, stable from 1Q (and compared to 0.55m in 2Q09). A successful cost-reduction programme, and stability in industry structure are the two drivers we identify for the recovery. We understand that Yamaha could be operating under a capacity constraint in Indonesia, which bodes well for the industry profitability sustaining. We are raising our FY10E profit per motor cycle estimate for AHM to Rp1.1m from Rp0.93m – as a result, tweaking our FY10E EPS for Astra by about 3% (for FY10, JPM is at Rp3,351 vs. consensus on Rp3,019).
Retain OW, conditions favourable for an overshoot: A visit to the Jakarta Motor Show suggested that vehicle demand remains strong, healthy volumes over the next few months, an appreciating rupiah and the prospect of EPS revisions are conditions that could combine to drive Astra to overshoot our Rp55,000 PT. Trades on 15.7x and 14.9x FY10-11 P/E currently.
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