· Following recent news on cooperation possibility between Jinchuan Group and Antam, the group said it is ready to deploy up to US$2.00bn for nickel facility development in Halmahera and currently is studying feasibilities on this project.
· As a return, Jinchuan Group will absorb the facility’s output considering that this third world largest mining company requires nickel as the raw material for its stainless steel product.
· There are no further details on this plan; however, the facility in Halmahera will open access to Antam’s nickel reserves and is inline with the company’s plan.
· Currently ANTM is trading at 2011F PER of 10.4x and EV/EBITDA of 5.1x, Buy.
Tampilkan postingan dengan label 300. Tampilkan semua postingan
Tampilkan postingan dengan label 300. Tampilkan semua postingan
Minggu, 26 September 2010
Minggu, 12 September 2010
NISP Indo Tambangraya Megah to be sold at Rp36,150 – Rp38,500 (ITMG, Rp39,300, Hold)
· It is reported that Banpu Minerals aims for Rp3.56tn – Rp3.79tn from its divestment of 98.5mn share in ITM or equal to 8.7% ownership. Currently Banpu Minerals owns 73.72% ITM, which translates into 832.9mn shares. The offering structure is 73.9mn shares with option to sell additional 24.6mn shares of ITM.
· The news added that Banpu Minerals has appointed Goldman Sachs and several domestic houses to help the transaction. There is no confirmation from the company regarding this transaction.
· Currently ITMG is trading at 2011F PER of 13.6x and EV/EBITDA of 8.1x, Hold.
· The news added that Banpu Minerals has appointed Goldman Sachs and several domestic houses to help the transaction. There is no confirmation from the company regarding this transaction.
· Currently ITMG is trading at 2011F PER of 13.6x and EV/EBITDA of 8.1x, Hold.
Rabu, 25 Agustus 2010
Mansek London Sumatra:1H10 results were within ours and consensus estimates (LSIP,Rp9,300,Buy,TP:Rp10,200)
LSIP reported 1H10 net income of Rp418bn (+45.7% yoy), represented 44.5% of our FY forecast and and 44.3% of consensus estimates. These results were within our expectation. Historically, 1H net income in 2006, 2007 and 2009 represented between 30% and 41% of FY net income.
Revenue increased by 8.3% yoy. 2Q10 revenue was higher than 1Q10 by 30.3% qoq. Operating margin in 2Q10 reached 38.1%, which improved from 34.3% in 1Q10, it is higher than our target for FY10 of 35.3%.
COGS decreased by 3.3% yoy mainly due to decrease in upkeep and cultivation cost from Rp150bn in 1H09 to RpRp125bn in 1H10, which mainly due to lower fertilizer application in 1H10, therefore we expect the upkeep and cultivation cost will increase in 2H10.
There is a cost-saving initiative by reducing lavish bonus payment to employees, which paid in 1H. It results a decrease in remuneration and employee benefit expenses in G&A from Rp123bn in 1H09 to Rp108bn in 1H10.
At current price, LSIP is trading at 2010F and 2011F PER of 13.3x and 11.9x. We maintain our BUY recommendation on the counter.
Revenue increased by 8.3% yoy. 2Q10 revenue was higher than 1Q10 by 30.3% qoq. Operating margin in 2Q10 reached 38.1%, which improved from 34.3% in 1Q10, it is higher than our target for FY10 of 35.3%.
COGS decreased by 3.3% yoy mainly due to decrease in upkeep and cultivation cost from Rp150bn in 1H09 to RpRp125bn in 1H10, which mainly due to lower fertilizer application in 1H10, therefore we expect the upkeep and cultivation cost will increase in 2H10.
There is a cost-saving initiative by reducing lavish bonus payment to employees, which paid in 1H. It results a decrease in remuneration and employee benefit expenses in G&A from Rp123bn in 1H09 to Rp108bn in 1H10.
At current price, LSIP is trading at 2010F and 2011F PER of 13.3x and 11.9x. We maintain our BUY recommendation on the counter.
Minggu, 23 Mei 2010
UBS ASII S peed bump due to vehicle taxes hike TP 49,300
Potential vehicle taxes (BBN and PKB) hikes
Jakarta’s provincial government is proposing to raise registration tax (BBN) from
10% to 20% and to implement progressive vehicle tax (PKB), which is possibly
effective Jun 2010. Things are fluid as it remains a proposal and each of 33
provincial governments has to come up with its own local regulation.
Most likely impact
The most likely impact to vehicle (both car and motorcycle) price is a 10%
increase, in our opinion. Encouragingly, a look back to 2009 (last price increase)
reveals demand elasticity of -1.33x (20% volume decline/15% price increase) and
-1.2x (6%/5%) for car and motorcycle, respectively. This is not so bad considering
tight auto financing in 2009.
Earnings speed bump, not major earnings downgrade
We revise down mainly 2011/12E earnings by 7% from Rp3,289/3,890 to
Rp3,064/3,600. The earnings downgrade extent is not so great due to: 1) we never
adjusted our car and motorcycle sales assumption to current run rate (Jan-Apr)
which is beyond our expectation; 2) we have not upgraded Astra’s earnings on the
back of better than expected Q110 results (some 8-10% ahead).
Valuation: Maintain Buy rating
Our SOTP-derived price target is revised up by 5% to Rp49,300 due to: 1) lower
risk-free rate from 10% to 9.3%; and 2) roll over of DCF cut off date to June 2011.
We consider higher vehicle tax as a speed bump (1-year push back), not the
derailment of the structural growth story.
Jakarta’s provincial government is proposing to raise registration tax (BBN) from
10% to 20% and to implement progressive vehicle tax (PKB), which is possibly
effective Jun 2010. Things are fluid as it remains a proposal and each of 33
provincial governments has to come up with its own local regulation.
Most likely impact
The most likely impact to vehicle (both car and motorcycle) price is a 10%
increase, in our opinion. Encouragingly, a look back to 2009 (last price increase)
reveals demand elasticity of -1.33x (20% volume decline/15% price increase) and
-1.2x (6%/5%) for car and motorcycle, respectively. This is not so bad considering
tight auto financing in 2009.
Earnings speed bump, not major earnings downgrade
We revise down mainly 2011/12E earnings by 7% from Rp3,289/3,890 to
Rp3,064/3,600. The earnings downgrade extent is not so great due to: 1) we never
adjusted our car and motorcycle sales assumption to current run rate (Jan-Apr)
which is beyond our expectation; 2) we have not upgraded Astra’s earnings on the
back of better than expected Q110 results (some 8-10% ahead).
Valuation: Maintain Buy rating
Our SOTP-derived price target is revised up by 5% to Rp49,300 due to: 1) lower
risk-free rate from 10% to 9.3%; and 2) roll over of DCF cut off date to June 2011.
We consider higher vehicle tax as a speed bump (1-year push back), not the
derailment of the structural growth story.
Rabu, 28 April 2010
Mandiri Sekuritas Bank Mandiri: 1Q2010 net profit jumped by 43.1% yoy (BMRI, Rp5,300, Not Rated)
Bank Mandiri reported a 43.1%yoy surge in net profits in 1Q10 to reach Rp2tn, in line with consensus estimates.
BMRI’s 1Q10 net interest income increased by 5.5% yoy, however, the bank managed to have operating income of Rp6tn (+8.0% yoy), driven by strong increase of Non-Interest Income by 17.4%, as fee based income surged by 30.9% yoy. Although the bank posted a positive NII, NIM ratio declined to 5.2% (vs. 5.5% 1Q09), mainly caused by the drop in FX loan yields, which has given the bank absorbed lower spread.
The bank maintained its NPL at low 2.6% (vs 2.6% FY09), despite a sustainable growth of gross loan (+2.4% qoq), which booked as upgrades and write-offs dominated the movements, led to provisioning recorded at moderate Rp692bn (-49.7%yoy). Coverage ratio remained high at 219.1%, while CAR is 17.0%, LDR 64.1% and ROE 30.1% (vs 15.6%, 59,2% and 21.8% FY09, respectively). In reporting its 1Q10, the bank’s management said that about 90% of the newly PSAK 50 – 55 reporting requirement has been met, and any remainder would not give any major impact on the books. At
present, BMRI is trading at P/BV10F of 2.8x and PER10F 13.4x. We do not have a recommendation on the stock.
BMRI’s 1Q10 net interest income increased by 5.5% yoy, however, the bank managed to have operating income of Rp6tn (+8.0% yoy), driven by strong increase of Non-Interest Income by 17.4%, as fee based income surged by 30.9% yoy. Although the bank posted a positive NII, NIM ratio declined to 5.2% (vs. 5.5% 1Q09), mainly caused by the drop in FX loan yields, which has given the bank absorbed lower spread.
The bank maintained its NPL at low 2.6% (vs 2.6% FY09), despite a sustainable growth of gross loan (+2.4% qoq), which booked as upgrades and write-offs dominated the movements, led to provisioning recorded at moderate Rp692bn (-49.7%yoy). Coverage ratio remained high at 219.1%, while CAR is 17.0%, LDR 64.1% and ROE 30.1% (vs 15.6%, 59,2% and 21.8% FY09, respectively). In reporting its 1Q10, the bank’s management said that about 90% of the newly PSAK 50 – 55 reporting requirement has been met, and any remainder would not give any major impact on the books. At
present, BMRI is trading at P/BV10F of 2.8x and PER10F 13.4x. We do not have a recommendation on the stock.
Selasa, 06 April 2010
Mandiri Sekuritas Bumi : FY09 net income below ours and consensus on amortization of US$275mn deferred stripping cost (BUMI, Rp2,300, Buy, TP:Rp4,136)
Bumi Resources, said net profit in 2009 fell to $190.5mn because of a $275mn charge on deferred mining expenses. 2009 profit was down by 49% compared with the company’s adjusted $371.7mn net profit in 2008. Included back US$275mn deferred stripping cost, and apply the same tax rate (45%), Bumi 2009 net income was US$434mn, higher than consensus forecast of US$406mn.
Bumi’s production volumes rose 19.5% to 63.1Mt, with volume sales of 58.4Mt (vs 2008: 51.5Mt), while its costs decreased to $28.3/ton from $33.11 in 2008. However, a lower average sales price in 2009, of $61/ton, down from $73/ton in 2008, contributed to a 4.7% drop in revenue to $3.22bn. In 2010 Bumi is aiming to sell 64Mt of coal at an average price $67 /ton. In 1Q10 Bumi has produced 16 Mt, up 41.6% from the same period in 2008. As to what Bumi can make in 2010 net income, that really depends on their plan to below operating line activities such as plan to reduce debt of US$1.1bn through debt to equity swap and the placement of its subsidiary (Bumi Resources Mineral, a non-coal holding company).
Bumi’s production volumes rose 19.5% to 63.1Mt, with volume sales of 58.4Mt (vs 2008: 51.5Mt), while its costs decreased to $28.3/ton from $33.11 in 2008. However, a lower average sales price in 2009, of $61/ton, down from $73/ton in 2008, contributed to a 4.7% drop in revenue to $3.22bn. In 2010 Bumi is aiming to sell 64Mt of coal at an average price $67 /ton. In 1Q10 Bumi has produced 16 Mt, up 41.6% from the same period in 2008. As to what Bumi can make in 2010 net income, that really depends on their plan to below operating line activities such as plan to reduce debt of US$1.1bn through debt to equity swap and the placement of its subsidiary (Bumi Resources Mineral, a non-coal holding company).
Kamis, 09 April 2009
Mandiri Sekuritas Telkom: Go Defensive (TLKM, Rp7,300, Buy, TP: Rp8,200)
TLKM share price has increased by 5.8% ytd. Despite an indication by the company that earnings dropped by around 12%yoy in FY08, we have see TLKM stock price rise by 5.8% ytd. The main reason being that it’s considered a defensive play, and it had been trading at discount to regional peers.
Still a slow growth going forward, but TLKM is our sector pick. Though we stick to our view on low growth (EPS to grow by 1.4%yoy in FY09F), we flip our call on the stock from Sell to Buy, as we see “growth” is no more a distinguishing factor to chose our sector top pick. We put a Buy for the stock and now rely our call amongst others on TLKM’s highest free float (48.8% vs 20% for ISAT), and dividend yield (4.4% vs 3.5% for ISAT), its large cap (Market cap of Rp144tn vs Rp30tn for ISAT) and
overall a defensive play. We don’t like small caps – EXCL because of huge forex debt and losses, low free-float and while we have a Buy for BTEL considering its cheap valuation vise, we like to emphasize that the stock will underperform given the risk exposed to Bakrie Group.
Reverse our call from Sell to Buy. We arrive at a new TP of Rp8,200/share (+12.3% upside) after fine tuning our earnings and adjusting our WACC from 14.9% to 13.6%. Our TP implies PER09F of 14.2x, higher than regional peer average but lower than ISAT. Note that though ISAT has historically traded at premium to TLKM given its better growth, but now given that ISAT’s free float is about half of TLKM, we think TLKM should trade inline with ISAT. In order for TLKM to trade inline with ISAT, TP should be Rp9,100/share, indicating a further 10.9% upside to our TP. Currently Telkom PER09F 12.6x.
Still a slow growth going forward, but TLKM is our sector pick. Though we stick to our view on low growth (EPS to grow by 1.4%yoy in FY09F), we flip our call on the stock from Sell to Buy, as we see “growth” is no more a distinguishing factor to chose our sector top pick. We put a Buy for the stock and now rely our call amongst others on TLKM’s highest free float (48.8% vs 20% for ISAT), and dividend yield (4.4% vs 3.5% for ISAT), its large cap (Market cap of Rp144tn vs Rp30tn for ISAT) and
overall a defensive play. We don’t like small caps – EXCL because of huge forex debt and losses, low free-float and while we have a Buy for BTEL considering its cheap valuation vise, we like to emphasize that the stock will underperform given the risk exposed to Bakrie Group.
Reverse our call from Sell to Buy. We arrive at a new TP of Rp8,200/share (+12.3% upside) after fine tuning our earnings and adjusting our WACC from 14.9% to 13.6%. Our TP implies PER09F of 14.2x, higher than regional peer average but lower than ISAT. Note that though ISAT has historically traded at premium to TLKM given its better growth, but now given that ISAT’s free float is about half of TLKM, we think TLKM should trade inline with ISAT. In order for TLKM to trade inline with ISAT, TP should be Rp9,100/share, indicating a further 10.9% upside to our TP. Currently Telkom PER09F 12.6x.
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