· Semen Gresik prefers to optimize loans from banks of up to Rp3.54tn in order to finance its Tonasa V project. This project will bear 2.5mn tons/year of installed production capacity and will be supported by 2x35 MW power plants.
· Semen Gresik aims to complete this US$412mn project somewhere in 4Q11, and hence, to enjoy the contribution in the following years. From total of US$412mn, US$300mn of which is allocated for cement plant and the remaining US$112 for the power plant.
· Beside Tonasa V, Semen Gresik is also aims to complete Tuban IV project in 2012, this project holds same capacity with Tonasa V with total investment cost reaching US$712mn.
· Semen Gresik stands a at net cash position that enables the company to optimize external financing to finance its projects. Currently SMGR is trading at 2011F PER of 14.5x and EV/EBITDA of 8.6x.
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Minggu, 03 Oktober 2010
Minggu, 26 September 2010
Mandiri Sekuritas Telkom will divest some of its ‘minority ownership’ subsidiaries (TLKM, Rp9,250, Buy, TP:R12,000)
Telkom plans to divest its ‘minority ownership’ subsidiaries as part of the business consolidation strategy. Hence, in the future Telkom will only own subsidiaries which it has majority ownership. Currently, Telkom is in the process to divest its 40% ownership in PT Petrakom and 25% ownership in PT Citra Sari Makmur (CSM).
Minggu, 19 September 2010
NISP Telekomunikasi Indonesia to acquire Bakrie Telecom through swap mechanism (TLKM, Rp9,200; BTEL, Rp205)
· Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Telkom) gave more light on its plan to acquire Bakrie Telecom where Telkom will swap its CDMA based business, Telkom Flexi, with Bakrie Telecom’s share. The shares will be obtained by absorbing all of Bakrie Telecom right issue shares. The implementation is scheduled to be conducted in December this year. This step was elaborated by the Minister of SOE yesterday.
· It is still difficult to obtain picture of the merged company as there could a difference in both company’s current strategies and resources as well.
· Currently, TLKM is trading at 2011F consensus PER of 13.2x and EV/EBITDA of 4.9x, while BTEL at 2011F consensus PER of 32.4x and EV/EBITDA of 6.4x.
· It is still difficult to obtain picture of the merged company as there could a difference in both company’s current strategies and resources as well.
· Currently, TLKM is trading at 2011F consensus PER of 13.2x and EV/EBITDA of 4.9x, while BTEL at 2011F consensus PER of 32.4x and EV/EBITDA of 6.4x.
Rabu, 25 Agustus 2010
Mansek London Sumatra:1H10 results were within ours and consensus estimates (LSIP,Rp9,300,Buy,TP:Rp10,200)
LSIP reported 1H10 net income of Rp418bn (+45.7% yoy), represented 44.5% of our FY forecast and and 44.3% of consensus estimates. These results were within our expectation. Historically, 1H net income in 2006, 2007 and 2009 represented between 30% and 41% of FY net income.
Revenue increased by 8.3% yoy. 2Q10 revenue was higher than 1Q10 by 30.3% qoq. Operating margin in 2Q10 reached 38.1%, which improved from 34.3% in 1Q10, it is higher than our target for FY10 of 35.3%.
COGS decreased by 3.3% yoy mainly due to decrease in upkeep and cultivation cost from Rp150bn in 1H09 to RpRp125bn in 1H10, which mainly due to lower fertilizer application in 1H10, therefore we expect the upkeep and cultivation cost will increase in 2H10.
There is a cost-saving initiative by reducing lavish bonus payment to employees, which paid in 1H. It results a decrease in remuneration and employee benefit expenses in G&A from Rp123bn in 1H09 to Rp108bn in 1H10.
At current price, LSIP is trading at 2010F and 2011F PER of 13.3x and 11.9x. We maintain our BUY recommendation on the counter.
Revenue increased by 8.3% yoy. 2Q10 revenue was higher than 1Q10 by 30.3% qoq. Operating margin in 2Q10 reached 38.1%, which improved from 34.3% in 1Q10, it is higher than our target for FY10 of 35.3%.
COGS decreased by 3.3% yoy mainly due to decrease in upkeep and cultivation cost from Rp150bn in 1H09 to RpRp125bn in 1H10, which mainly due to lower fertilizer application in 1H10, therefore we expect the upkeep and cultivation cost will increase in 2H10.
There is a cost-saving initiative by reducing lavish bonus payment to employees, which paid in 1H. It results a decrease in remuneration and employee benefit expenses in G&A from Rp123bn in 1H09 to Rp108bn in 1H10.
At current price, LSIP is trading at 2010F and 2011F PER of 13.3x and 11.9x. We maintain our BUY recommendation on the counter.
NISP Lonsum net income jumps by 48.9% YoY (LSIP, Rp9,300)
In 1H10, London Sumatera managed to book net income of Rp417.8bn, a 45.7% YoY jump from Rp286.7bn in 1H09. Sales was up by 8.3% from Rp1.45tn to Rp1.57tn.
Profitability improved as the company reduced operating expenses making operating margin increase by a significant 8.9% to 36.4% in 1H10. However a reduction in interest expense to only Rp15.1bn was offset by forex losses of Rp13.7bn from an interest expense of Rp25.6bn and forex gain of Rp14.6bn. This made net margin only improve by 6.8% to 26.7%.
On a quarterly basis, revenue growth was strong, increasing by 30.3% to Rp886.2bn, making net income jump by 48.9% to Rp167.9bn.
LSIP is trading at 2011F consensus PER of 12.2x and EV/EBITDA of 7.7x.
Profitability improved as the company reduced operating expenses making operating margin increase by a significant 8.9% to 36.4% in 1H10. However a reduction in interest expense to only Rp15.1bn was offset by forex losses of Rp13.7bn from an interest expense of Rp25.6bn and forex gain of Rp14.6bn. This made net margin only improve by 6.8% to 26.7%.
On a quarterly basis, revenue growth was strong, increasing by 30.3% to Rp886.2bn, making net income jump by 48.9% to Rp167.9bn.
LSIP is trading at 2011F consensus PER of 12.2x and EV/EBITDA of 7.7x.
NISP BRI studying possibility to acquire Bukopin (BBRI, Rp9,550)
• Bank Rakyat Indonesia is studying the possibility of acquiring 51.0% majority stake in Bukopin (BBKP,Rp640). Such acquisition is believed to synergize BRI’s micro financing business. If realized, Bukopin will be merged with Bank Agro, to comply with Bank Indonesia’s single present policy.
• BRI CEO, Mr. Sofyan Basir, stated that the bank has enough funds for acquisition, as there is still around Rp2.00tn free cash from the company’s sub debt issuance.
• Mr. Basir also adds that the bank is studying the possibility for a stock split this year, with a ratio of 1:2 or 1:4. The stock split plan will be proposed to the upcoming EGM and expected to be conducted in the last quarter of the year.
• BBRI is trading at 2011F consensus PER of 10.8x and PBV of 2.9x.
• BRI CEO, Mr. Sofyan Basir, stated that the bank has enough funds for acquisition, as there is still around Rp2.00tn free cash from the company’s sub debt issuance.
• Mr. Basir also adds that the bank is studying the possibility for a stock split this year, with a ratio of 1:2 or 1:4. The stock split plan will be proposed to the upcoming EGM and expected to be conducted in the last quarter of the year.
• BBRI is trading at 2011F consensus PER of 10.8x and PBV of 2.9x.
Kamis, 12 Agustus 2010
Mansek London Sumatra:6M10 CPO sales volumes reached 40.4%of our FY10F (LSIP,Rp9,200,Buy,TP:Rp10,200)
6M10 CPO sales volumes reached 40.4%of our FY10F.CPO sales volumes decreased by 3.0%yoy from 164,265 ton in 6M09 to 159,257 ton in 6M10. We consider 6M10 CPO sales volumes slightly below our expectations.
6M10 rubber sales volume reached 43.2%of our FY10F.Rubber sales volume decreased by 13.1%yoy from 11,189 ton in 6M09 to 9,725 ton in 6M10,thus in-line with expectations.
We maintain our BUY recommendation.Currently,LSIP trades at FY10F and
FY11F PE of 13.1x and 11.8x,respectively.
6M10 rubber sales volume reached 43.2%of our FY10F.Rubber sales volume decreased by 13.1%yoy from 11,189 ton in 6M09 to 9,725 ton in 6M10,thus in-line with expectations.
We maintain our BUY recommendation.Currently,LSIP trades at FY10F and
FY11F PE of 13.1x and 11.8x,respectively.
Kamis, 05 Agustus 2010
NISP London Sumatra reduces new planting to 3,500-4,000ha (LSIP, Rp9,150)
London Sumatra reveals due to environmental factors, it has reduced its new
planting target from 5,000 ha to only 3,500-4,000ha. The company will utilize
Rp150.0bn of capex for that action.
The company’s first half financials is under review and expected to be published
in the third week of August.
LSIP is trading at 2010F PER of 13.3x and EV/EBITDA of 8.3x.
planting target from 5,000 ha to only 3,500-4,000ha. The company will utilize
Rp150.0bn of capex for that action.
The company’s first half financials is under review and expected to be published
in the third week of August.
LSIP is trading at 2010F PER of 13.3x and EV/EBITDA of 8.3x.
Senin, 02 Agustus 2010
Mansek Semen Gresik:1H10 net profit grew 7.5%yoy,inline with consensus estimates (SMGR,Rp9,250,Neutral,TP:Rp9,400)
SMGR ’s 1H10 net profit grew 7.5%yoy,despite of lower revenue compared with 1H09 (-1.6%yoy)to only Rp6.7tn.In 1H10,domestic sales figure only grew by 4.0%yoy,whilst export dropped significantly,which brings total production growth of only 0.5%yoy.Given the fact,it suggests that there was no increase in the domestic average selling price.
Better gross margin due to several cost efficiencies amplify its bottom line level. Overall,SMGR ’s 1H10 result was still in-line with our and consensus estimates.SMGR is currently trading at PER10F of 14.7x (vs average peers of 14.8x)and EV/ton of US$295 (vs average peers of US$296).
Better gross margin due to several cost efficiencies amplify its bottom line level. Overall,SMGR ’s 1H10 result was still in-line with our and consensus estimates.SMGR is currently trading at PER10F of 14.7x (vs average peers of 14.8x)and EV/ton of US$295 (vs average peers of US$296).
Danareksa Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ, Rp9,900 BUY) Still very profitable
Micro-focused, TP of Rp12,200
Our BUY recommendation is based on the premise that the bank’s unique business model – specifically in the area of micro lending - high profitability and above industry loans growth will be sustained over the longer run. ROE has also been robust, at above 28% in 1H10, thanks mainly to the bank’s higher proportion of productive assets. NIM, while it has been declining since 2005, remains above the industry’s average. Loans growth continues to surge, hitting 11% year-to-date, albeit with slightly lower quality. Micro lending continues to be the bank’s main focus. The 1H results are not a surprise at all, and for the time being, our forecast remains unchanged. As for the TP, we extend it to 12-months, raising it to Rp12,200 or 4.0x FY11 PBV, justified by the 21% 3-yr EPS growth and 32% ROE.
Tackling its NPLs
1H10 NPLs rose to 4.3% as loan quality in the small commercial and medium segments continued to deteriorate. Total bad debts written off were around Rp800bn, mainly in the micro and retail segments, with the bank attempting to recover bad debts in other segments – specifically the medium segment – from restructuring. NPLs in the medium segment jumped to 14.9%, despite the bank’s efforts to tackling them through extensive restructuring. Thus far, more than half of the medium NPLs have been settled and around 30% of them are still being restructured. Assuming 50% of the settled NPLs are upgraded, then the medium NPLs are likely to reach 11% by YE10, in our estimates. Like the medium NPLs, bad debts in the small commercial segment have picked up as well, with the NPLs up to 6.5% in 1H. However, the management’s guidance is for small commercial NPLs to fall to 5% in 2H, as restructuring progresses. Should NPL targets in both segments be achieved, NPLs should fall to 3.6% by YE10, in our estimates, assuming 25% loans growth.
Sustaining high profitability
The NIM stayed at 9.4% in 1H, mainly on deposits re-pricing, although higher loans growth may also have helped. NIM guidance remains at 8.5-9.5% by YE10, or around 8.7%, in our estimates. While this is far from its 4-yr average, it is still above the industry’s average. Our assumption takes into account the greater funding needed to keep the bank’s loans growth at 25%. Indeed, the LDR has reached 88% and the easiest way for the bank to grow its deposits is to increase the proportion of TD, a product that is sensitive to interest rates. This appears to have been the case so far with the bank’s TD increasing to 42% from FY09’s 39%. Of course, the best way is still for the bank to grow its CASA to 60%, but this may take some time to be realized. Alternatively, BBRI could issue sub-debt to finance its loans expansion, while, at the same time, increase its Tier 2 capital. Whatever strategy the bank adopts, it will likely lead to a higher COF - although not by much.
CASA in focus
BBRI’s deposits growth was lacking in 1H. Much of the increase in deposits was mainly in TD rather than CASA. The priority has now shifted towards growing its CASA, through extensive marketing efforts, outlet expansion and product innovation. Cross selling is also helping, especially since the bank has more than 7mn debtors that the bank can tap and some 6,400 micro outlets. Presently, around 65% of BBRI’s saving accounts come from its micro segment. BBRI’s commitment to expand its infrastructure may come at a cost, but given its historic low cost-to-income ratio (CIR) of 41%, there is plenty of room for the bank to increase its presence, without hurting its earnings. We have assumed that the CIR increases to 45% by YE10.
Our BUY recommendation is based on the premise that the bank’s unique business model – specifically in the area of micro lending - high profitability and above industry loans growth will be sustained over the longer run. ROE has also been robust, at above 28% in 1H10, thanks mainly to the bank’s higher proportion of productive assets. NIM, while it has been declining since 2005, remains above the industry’s average. Loans growth continues to surge, hitting 11% year-to-date, albeit with slightly lower quality. Micro lending continues to be the bank’s main focus. The 1H results are not a surprise at all, and for the time being, our forecast remains unchanged. As for the TP, we extend it to 12-months, raising it to Rp12,200 or 4.0x FY11 PBV, justified by the 21% 3-yr EPS growth and 32% ROE.
Tackling its NPLs
1H10 NPLs rose to 4.3% as loan quality in the small commercial and medium segments continued to deteriorate. Total bad debts written off were around Rp800bn, mainly in the micro and retail segments, with the bank attempting to recover bad debts in other segments – specifically the medium segment – from restructuring. NPLs in the medium segment jumped to 14.9%, despite the bank’s efforts to tackling them through extensive restructuring. Thus far, more than half of the medium NPLs have been settled and around 30% of them are still being restructured. Assuming 50% of the settled NPLs are upgraded, then the medium NPLs are likely to reach 11% by YE10, in our estimates. Like the medium NPLs, bad debts in the small commercial segment have picked up as well, with the NPLs up to 6.5% in 1H. However, the management’s guidance is for small commercial NPLs to fall to 5% in 2H, as restructuring progresses. Should NPL targets in both segments be achieved, NPLs should fall to 3.6% by YE10, in our estimates, assuming 25% loans growth.
Sustaining high profitability
The NIM stayed at 9.4% in 1H, mainly on deposits re-pricing, although higher loans growth may also have helped. NIM guidance remains at 8.5-9.5% by YE10, or around 8.7%, in our estimates. While this is far from its 4-yr average, it is still above the industry’s average. Our assumption takes into account the greater funding needed to keep the bank’s loans growth at 25%. Indeed, the LDR has reached 88% and the easiest way for the bank to grow its deposits is to increase the proportion of TD, a product that is sensitive to interest rates. This appears to have been the case so far with the bank’s TD increasing to 42% from FY09’s 39%. Of course, the best way is still for the bank to grow its CASA to 60%, but this may take some time to be realized. Alternatively, BBRI could issue sub-debt to finance its loans expansion, while, at the same time, increase its Tier 2 capital. Whatever strategy the bank adopts, it will likely lead to a higher COF - although not by much.
CASA in focus
BBRI’s deposits growth was lacking in 1H. Much of the increase in deposits was mainly in TD rather than CASA. The priority has now shifted towards growing its CASA, through extensive marketing efforts, outlet expansion and product innovation. Cross selling is also helping, especially since the bank has more than 7mn debtors that the bank can tap and some 6,400 micro outlets. Presently, around 65% of BBRI’s saving accounts come from its micro segment. BBRI’s commitment to expand its infrastructure may come at a cost, but given its historic low cost-to-income ratio (CIR) of 41%, there is plenty of room for the bank to increase its presence, without hurting its earnings. We have assumed that the CIR increases to 45% by YE10.
Kamis, 22 Juli 2010
Mansek Semen Gresik:1H10 net profit may grow 10-15%yoy (SMGR,Rp9,100, Neutral,TP:Rp9,400)
SMGR 1H10 net profit may grow 10-15%yoy following higher revenue of 7-9%yoy.SMGR ’s president director also reported that production volume increases by 4-5%yoy.The indicated top and bottom line figures reflect 1H10 revenue and net profit of Rp7.2-7.4tn and Rp1.66-1.74tn,respectively.
It also indicates that average selling price is slightly increased,thus reflecting better margins.It is inline with our forecast as it represents around 45-46%from FY10 target.The company is currently trading at PER10-11F of 14.5x-12.5x vs average industry of 17.0-14.4x.
It also indicates that average selling price is slightly increased,thus reflecting better margins.It is inline with our forecast as it represents around 45-46%from FY10 target.The company is currently trading at PER10-11F of 14.5x-12.5x vs average industry of 17.0-14.4x.
Kamis, 06 Mei 2010
NISP London Sumatera to spend Rp500.0bn of capex this year (LSIP, Rp9,150)
• London Sumatera (LSIP) has prepared Rp500.0bn capex for this year. The company will use the budgeted capex to increase CPO production capacity from 405 tons/hour to 425 tons/hour and for a new planting program this year. 60% of the amount will be financed from internal cash with the remaining to be financed from bank loans.
• The company will also disburse 40% of its 2009 net profit as cash dividend which translates into Rp209/share (2.3% yield). The cum date will be on 26 May 2010, while the payment date will be on 5 June 2010.
• LSIP is trading at 2010F consensus PER of 13.3x and EV/EBITDA of 8.2x.
• The company will also disburse 40% of its 2009 net profit as cash dividend which translates into Rp209/share (2.3% yield). The cum date will be on 26 May 2010, while the payment date will be on 5 June 2010.
• LSIP is trading at 2010F consensus PER of 13.3x and EV/EBITDA of 8.2x.
Minggu, 02 Mei 2010
Mandiri Sekuritas London Sumatra: 1Q10 net income was below our estimate and consensus (LSIP, Rp9,650, Buy, TP: Rp10,500)
LSIP posted 1Q10 revenues of Rp680bn (10.1%yoy, -26.8%qoq). This translates to net income of Rp168bn (+62.8%yoy, - 23.0%qoq)
Although CPO and PK sales volume decreased by 13.5% and 16.2% yoy, respectively, revenue increased by 10.1%yoy mainly due to higher ASP of rubber and higher sales volume of oil palm seeds.
CPO sales volume decreased because CPO production decreased by 6.1% yoy and logistical issues relating to higher rainfall in South Sumatera.
1Q10 gross margin improved due to higher ASP of rubber in 1Q10 and higher sales volume of oil palm seeds.
1Q10 CPO sales volume of 69,265 ton represents 16.7% of our FY10E CPO sales volume. In the last 2 years, average 1Q sales volume represented 22.7% of full year sales volume.
We will re-visit our forecast. Currently, we retain our buy call with a TP of 10,500. The counter trades at PER10-11F of 14.2- 12.2x.
Although CPO and PK sales volume decreased by 13.5% and 16.2% yoy, respectively, revenue increased by 10.1%yoy mainly due to higher ASP of rubber and higher sales volume of oil palm seeds.
CPO sales volume decreased because CPO production decreased by 6.1% yoy and logistical issues relating to higher rainfall in South Sumatera.
1Q10 gross margin improved due to higher ASP of rubber in 1Q10 and higher sales volume of oil palm seeds.
1Q10 CPO sales volume of 69,265 ton represents 16.7% of our FY10E CPO sales volume. In the last 2 years, average 1Q sales volume represented 22.7% of full year sales volume.
We will re-visit our forecast. Currently, we retain our buy call with a TP of 10,500. The counter trades at PER10-11F of 14.2- 12.2x.
Jumat, 06 Maret 2009
Mandiri Sekuritas IndoTambang: FY08 earnings above our and consensus estimates. (ITMG, Rp9,650, Buy, TP: Rp15,130)
Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG) FY08 earnings rose by 321.1% yoy to US$235mn, outpacing ours (+10.3%) and consensus estimates (+16.5%). FY08 revenue went up to US$1.3bn (+70.6% yoy), below our expectation but in-line with consensus estimates. FY08 coal sales were 17.7mn tons (- 2.2% yoy), above our expectation, with average selling price (ASP) of US$74/ton (+74.7% yoy), below expectation. On qoq basis, 4Q08 coal sales were 4.8mn tons (+8.2% qoq) which result in US$420mn revenue and US$105mn net profit.
In FY09F, ITMG plans to beef up coal output to 20.5mn tons (+15.8% yoy) with 57% fixed price, 14% based on index, 14% under negotiation, and the remaining 15% still unpriced. FY09F capital expenditure is planned at US$126mn. Meanwhile, we estimated ITMG FY09F coal output at 17mn tons with ASP of US$63/ton, translating into FY09F earnings of US$231mn (-1.7% yoy). Based on our estimates, ITMG is trading at PER09F of 4.0x.
In FY09F, ITMG plans to beef up coal output to 20.5mn tons (+15.8% yoy) with 57% fixed price, 14% based on index, 14% under negotiation, and the remaining 15% still unpriced. FY09F capital expenditure is planned at US$126mn. Meanwhile, we estimated ITMG FY09F coal output at 17mn tons with ASP of US$63/ton, translating into FY09F earnings of US$231mn (-1.7% yoy). Based on our estimates, ITMG is trading at PER09F of 4.0x.
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