· TB Bukit Asam sets production growth target of 10% YoY in 2011F or aims to reach 15mn tons of coal production compared to 13.6mn tons in 2010F. The company cited that it has started to increase its infrastructure capacity in order to reach such target.
· For medium term, TB Bukit Asam sets a 70mn tons coal production target in 2016, which will be backed by the commencement of the company’s projects. The company is optimistic it will complete its entire projects in 2014 and obtains optimal utilization rate in 2016.
· TB Bukit Asam shared its internal target for each projects, which are 15mn tons from Tanjung Enim – Lampung new railway, 22.7mn tons from existing railway, 30mn tons from Tanjung Enim – Palembang new railway.
· The company’s guidance is inline with our expectation, thus, with current valuation of 2011F PER of 15.5x and EV/EBITDA of 10.1x, Buy.
Tampilkan postingan dengan label 400. Tampilkan semua postingan
Tampilkan postingan dengan label 400. Tampilkan semua postingan
Minggu, 26 September 2010
Kamis, 12 Agustus 2010
Mansek Timah:tin output in Indonesia may miss target (TINS,Rp2,400,Neutral,TP: Rp2,800)
According to Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources,tin output from Indonesia may plunge about 20%this year due to prolonged rainy season. However,lower output from Indonesia has supported strong LME tin price. Our tin price assumption for FY10F is US$17.5k/ton,which is the same with ytd average LME price.However,yesterday LME tin price reached US$19.9k/ton.
Should the price is sustainable until year end;tin price could be 7%above our estimates.Our sensitivity analysis shows that 20%output decline and 7%higher selling price will reduce net profit by 22%.Currently,we have Neutral recommendation on TINS which is trading at 14.6-9.6x PER10-11F.
Should the price is sustainable until year end;tin price could be 7%above our estimates.Our sensitivity analysis shows that 20%output decline and 7%higher selling price will reduce net profit by 22%.Currently,we have Neutral recommendation on TINS which is trading at 14.6-9.6x PER10-11F.
Sabtu, 31 Juli 2010
Mandiri Sekuritas Mayora: 1H10 results are inline with ours and consensus estimate (MYOR, Rp8,400, Buy, TP: Rp9,000)
MYOR posted 1H10 net income of Rp211bn (+29%yoy, -22%qoq), which is inline with ours and consensus estimate.
The decline in net profit was due to heavy ads expense in 2Q10 that increased by 73%qoq and 75%yoy. Considering seasonality effect, we expect the company will be better in 2H10.
We have Buy recommendation on MYOR which currently is trading at PER10-11F of 13.1-11.3x.
The decline in net profit was due to heavy ads expense in 2Q10 that increased by 73%qoq and 75%yoy. Considering seasonality effect, we expect the company will be better in 2H10.
We have Buy recommendation on MYOR which currently is trading at PER10-11F of 13.1-11.3x.
Selasa, 04 Mei 2010
DBS Result Snapshot: Bank Rakyat Indo: Growth picking up; BUY Rp8,950; Price Target : Rp 10,400
At a Glance
* 1Q10 was within our and consensus estimates
* Growth is expected to pick up in subsequent quarters.
* Maintain Buy and Rp10,400 TP
Comment on Result
1Q09 net profit of Rp2.2tr was in line. NIM remained exceptionally strong at 9.4% due to significantly lower cost of funds, which fell to 4.8% from 6.0% in 4Q09. We had expected the strong NIM because a large chunk of term deposits was re-priced at lower rates in Jan-Feb 2010. Loans grew 1.7% q-o-q. Like other banks, we expect loan growth to pick up in the coming quarters. BBRI's key loan growth drivers remain its forte, micro credit and small commercial loans. We note that over 360,000 KUR borrowers had migrated to small commercial loans up to Mar-10. Deposits contracted by
5% q-o-q due to seasonality, and CASA to total deposits fell to 55% from 60% in the previous quarter.
However, asset quality disappointed with NPL ratio inching up to 4.1% (from 3.5% in 4Q09). We believe this could be attributed to the continued stress in loans to the 'medium segment'. However, absolute NPLs increased only 1.7% q-o-q. We note that provisions have 'normalised' with a charge-off rate of 2.9% (annualized). BBRI's cost-to-income ratio declined further to 38.2% with continued strong revenue growth coupled with good operating costs management. CAR is robust at 15.4% (excl. operational risk: 16.6%) after including Rp2tr sub-debt issued in Dec09.
We expect BBRI's NIM to moderate from 1Q10 level and stabilize at 8.5-9.0% in FY10F. No change to our earnings for now, and our loan and deposit growth targets for FY10F remain at 20%.
Recommendation
Maintain Buy and Rp10,400 TP based on the Gordon Growth Model with implied 4x FY10 P/BV. BBRI's prospects remain healthy with strong NIM (albeit declining), and its ROE profile remains among the best thanks to high yield microcredit loans, which remain BBRI's forte.
* 1Q10 was within our and consensus estimates
* Growth is expected to pick up in subsequent quarters.
* Maintain Buy and Rp10,400 TP
Comment on Result
1Q09 net profit of Rp2.2tr was in line. NIM remained exceptionally strong at 9.4% due to significantly lower cost of funds, which fell to 4.8% from 6.0% in 4Q09. We had expected the strong NIM because a large chunk of term deposits was re-priced at lower rates in Jan-Feb 2010. Loans grew 1.7% q-o-q. Like other banks, we expect loan growth to pick up in the coming quarters. BBRI's key loan growth drivers remain its forte, micro credit and small commercial loans. We note that over 360,000 KUR borrowers had migrated to small commercial loans up to Mar-10. Deposits contracted by
5% q-o-q due to seasonality, and CASA to total deposits fell to 55% from 60% in the previous quarter.
However, asset quality disappointed with NPL ratio inching up to 4.1% (from 3.5% in 4Q09). We believe this could be attributed to the continued stress in loans to the 'medium segment'. However, absolute NPLs increased only 1.7% q-o-q. We note that provisions have 'normalised' with a charge-off rate of 2.9% (annualized). BBRI's cost-to-income ratio declined further to 38.2% with continued strong revenue growth coupled with good operating costs management. CAR is robust at 15.4% (excl. operational risk: 16.6%) after including Rp2tr sub-debt issued in Dec09.
We expect BBRI's NIM to moderate from 1Q10 level and stabilize at 8.5-9.0% in FY10F. No change to our earnings for now, and our loan and deposit growth targets for FY10F remain at 20%.
Recommendation
Maintain Buy and Rp10,400 TP based on the Gordon Growth Model with implied 4x FY10 P/BV. BBRI's prospects remain healthy with strong NIM (albeit declining), and its ROE profile remains among the best thanks to high yield microcredit loans, which remain BBRI's forte.
Rabu, 14 April 2010
Mandiri Sekuritas Astra Agro Lestari: 1Q10 production data, inline with our forecast (AALI, Rp24,400, Buy, TP: Rp29,000)
AALI’s reported 1Q10 CPO production of 218kton (-3.2%yoy) due to lower FFB production of 5.1%yoy. Production in Sumatera and Sulawesi declined, at the same time, Kalimantan area continued to show production growth due to younger plantation profile. Despite of YoY production decline, CPO and FFB production grew on MoM basis at 25% and 24%, respectively. 1Q10 production data represented 20% of our FY10F production volume.
We consider it inline with our forecast as 2H production has been usually bigger than that in 1H.
We still have a Buy recommendation on AALI which currently is trading at
PER10-11F of 15.4-13.9x.
We consider it inline with our forecast as 2H production has been usually bigger than that in 1H.
We still have a Buy recommendation on AALI which currently is trading at
PER10-11F of 15.4-13.9x.
Rabu, 24 Maret 2010
Mandiri Sekuritas United Tractors: heavy equipment sales continue to surge up 16%mom in Feb10 (UNTR, Rp17,400, Buy, TP:Rp19,600)
United Tractor reported heavy equipment sales in the month of February of 394 units (+16%mom), thus, the highest posted monthly sales since Sep08. Once again, Feb10 demand was dominated by mining sector which accounted for 54% of unit sales. As of 2M10, heavy equipment sales have totaled 733 units (63%yoy) and are running ahead of our FY10 target of 3,500 (equivalent to about 21% of FY10F targets). We maintain buy for the stock which currently trades at PER10F 14.5x. while posing a 13% upside to our price objective.
Senin, 06 Juli 2009
Mandiri Sekuritas - BUMI: Insatiable acquisitions appetite, upgraded to Rp2,400
Shortly after closing the ‘controversial’ acquisitions, Bumi is now looking at a coal mine being offered by BHP. As many greenfield projects are still on hold, ongoing acquisitions raises doubt of Bumi financing and its vulnerability in volatile debt market. Therefore as we lowered the risk-free rate, INDO19, (from 11.7% to 7.6%), we will put a 40% discount over its DCF of Rp4,007. We upgraded target price from Rp1,816 to Rp2,400, and upgrade our recommendation from Neutral to Buy.
Going after BHP Billiton coal mine. BHP Billiton said on June 9 that it had decided not to go ahead with the Haju trial coal mine in Central Kalimantan province on Borneo island because it did not fit with its long-term investment strategy. Haju was stage one of the Maruwai coal project, the 100%-BHP Billiton owned metallurgical coal deposit in Central Kalimantan, which was expected to produce 1mn tons of coking coal per year. Bumi is said to compete with 3 other local investors.
While it still has many projects in need of capital. BUMI has other attractive assets such as 100% ownership in Citra Palu Mineral (CPM). CPM planned to operate a gold mine at Poboya in Central Sulawesi Province in 2013. Gold was discovered in one of the six blocks in the mining area and resources were estimated to be about 62 metric tons of contained gold. The company is exploring for more gold in five other blocks. BUMI plan to inve! st US$400 mn-US$1bn in the project. We have not assumed any value on CPM and other non-coal assets. We also excluded non KPC, Arutmin coal mines in our DCF calculation. Subtraction of US$300.2mn in short-term investment in Recapital Asset Mgmt was also included. However debt to acquire the assets was incorporated.
Therefore we put 40% discount to our new DCF. We upgraded our target price from Rp1,816 to Rp2,400, and recommendation from Neutral to Buy. Fine- tuning has also been made to our earnings estimate to reflect our new Rp/US$ FY09E forecast of 9,772.
Going after BHP Billiton coal mine. BHP Billiton said on June 9 that it had decided not to go ahead with the Haju trial coal mine in Central Kalimantan province on Borneo island because it did not fit with its long-term investment strategy. Haju was stage one of the Maruwai coal project, the 100%-BHP Billiton owned metallurgical coal deposit in Central Kalimantan, which was expected to produce 1mn tons of coking coal per year. Bumi is said to compete with 3 other local investors.
While it still has many projects in need of capital. BUMI has other attractive assets such as 100% ownership in Citra Palu Mineral (CPM). CPM planned to operate a gold mine at Poboya in Central Sulawesi Province in 2013. Gold was discovered in one of the six blocks in the mining area and resources were estimated to be about 62 metric tons of contained gold. The company is exploring for more gold in five other blocks. BUMI plan to inve! st US$400 mn-US$1bn in the project. We have not assumed any value on CPM and other non-coal assets. We also excluded non KPC, Arutmin coal mines in our DCF calculation. Subtraction of US$300.2mn in short-term investment in Recapital Asset Mgmt was also included. However debt to acquire the assets was incorporated.
Therefore we put 40% discount to our new DCF. We upgraded our target price from Rp1,816 to Rp2,400, and recommendation from Neutral to Buy. Fine- tuning has also been made to our earnings estimate to reflect our new Rp/US$ FY09E forecast of 9,772.
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