· TB Bukit Asam sets production growth target of 10% YoY in 2011F or aims to reach 15mn tons of coal production compared to 13.6mn tons in 2010F. The company cited that it has started to increase its infrastructure capacity in order to reach such target.
· For medium term, TB Bukit Asam sets a 70mn tons coal production target in 2016, which will be backed by the commencement of the company’s projects. The company is optimistic it will complete its entire projects in 2014 and obtains optimal utilization rate in 2016.
· TB Bukit Asam shared its internal target for each projects, which are 15mn tons from Tanjung Enim – Lampung new railway, 22.7mn tons from existing railway, 30mn tons from Tanjung Enim – Palembang new railway.
· The company’s guidance is inline with our expectation, thus, with current valuation of 2011F PER of 15.5x and EV/EBITDA of 10.1x, Buy.
Tampilkan postingan dengan label Rp19. Tampilkan semua postingan
Tampilkan postingan dengan label Rp19. Tampilkan semua postingan
Minggu, 26 September 2010
Kamis, 19 Agustus 2010
NISP Astra Agro books Rp4.00tn sales in 7M10 (AALI, Rp19,800, Buy)
Astra Agro Lestari (AALI) until 7M10 has booked Rp4.00tn of revenue or slightly up by 1.5% YoY from Rp3.94tn in 7M09. This is mainly due to lower CPO and kernel sales volume in 7M10 which are down by 2% YoY and 14.6% YoY to only 573.6k tons and 71.4k tons, respectively.
The company’s CPO and kernel selling price was up by 3.0% YoY and 32.0% YoY in 7M10 to reach Rp6,563/kg and Rp3,430/kg, respectively.
Currently, AALI is trading at 2011F PER of 11.8x and EV/EBITDA of 7.5x, Buy.
The company’s CPO and kernel selling price was up by 3.0% YoY and 32.0% YoY in 7M10 to reach Rp6,563/kg and Rp3,430/kg, respectively.
Currently, AALI is trading at 2011F PER of 11.8x and EV/EBITDA of 7.5x, Buy.
Minggu, 02 Mei 2010
NISP TB Bukit Asam’s revenue decreases by 59.5% YoY (PTBA, Rp19,000, Buy)
• TB Bukit Asam recorded 59.5% YoY decrease on net income to Rp373.0bn in 1Q10 from Rp920.6bn in 1Q09. The figure is 10% compared to our full year expectation and 11.1% of the market’s estimate.
• The company had signaled such condition as Bukit Asam had adjusted its selling price to PLN for this year. During 2009, the company still managed to enjoy strong selling price above Rp800k/ton compared to Rp685k/ton this year.
• This was also added by stronger Rupiah that affected revenue from export market despite that it posted stronger sales volume to this segment of 1.3mn tons in 1Q10 from 631k tons in 1Q09. Despite lower revenue, the company posted higher direct cost where COGS rose to Rp1.1tn in 1Q10 from Rp873.6bn a year earlier.
• Overall, the company’s results are below expectation and might require adjustment for the company’s 2010F net income estimate.
• Currently PTBA is trading at 2010F PER of 14.5x and EV/EBITDA of 12.2x, Buy.
• The company had signaled such condition as Bukit Asam had adjusted its selling price to PLN for this year. During 2009, the company still managed to enjoy strong selling price above Rp800k/ton compared to Rp685k/ton this year.
• This was also added by stronger Rupiah that affected revenue from export market despite that it posted stronger sales volume to this segment of 1.3mn tons in 1Q10 from 631k tons in 1Q09. Despite lower revenue, the company posted higher direct cost where COGS rose to Rp1.1tn in 1Q10 from Rp873.6bn a year earlier.
• Overall, the company’s results are below expectation and might require adjustment for the company’s 2010F net income estimate.
• Currently PTBA is trading at 2010F PER of 14.5x and EV/EBITDA of 12.2x, Buy.
NISP United Tractors posts 11.7% YoY growth in 1Q10 net income (UNTR, Rp19,600, Buy)
• UT managed to post strong growth in net income of Rp907bn or 11.7% YoY higher from Rp812bn in 1Q09. The result came 19.1% of our full year expectation of Rp4.8tn and 21.5% of the consensus’ expectation.
• The company’s revenue grew by 25.2% YoY to Rp8.7tn, driven by the recovery in heavy equipment business of 38.4% YoY to Rp3.8tn from Rp2.8tn in 1Q09. However, the company posted a slightly lower gross profit of Rp1.6tn in 1Q10 as compared to Rp1.7tn, amid stronger Rupiah.
• Hence, the company’s profitability decreased where operating margin slid to 15.0% in 1Q10 compared to 19.1% in 1Q09. However, compared to 4Q09, the company managed to post higher profitability as operating margin was 14.9%.
• We view the company will post faster growth in the next quarters amid higher demand on heavy equipment products and also higher production volume form UT’s mining contracting business. In addition, during 1Q10, the company’s mining contracting business posted lower quarterly coal production due to the rainy season.
• Overall, the result managed to satisfy our expectation, hence with current valuation of 2010F PER of 13.2x and EV/EBITDA of 7.2x, we still maintain buy on UNTR.
• The company’s revenue grew by 25.2% YoY to Rp8.7tn, driven by the recovery in heavy equipment business of 38.4% YoY to Rp3.8tn from Rp2.8tn in 1Q09. However, the company posted a slightly lower gross profit of Rp1.6tn in 1Q10 as compared to Rp1.7tn, amid stronger Rupiah.
• Hence, the company’s profitability decreased where operating margin slid to 15.0% in 1Q10 compared to 19.1% in 1Q09. However, compared to 4Q09, the company managed to post higher profitability as operating margin was 14.9%.
• We view the company will post faster growth in the next quarters amid higher demand on heavy equipment products and also higher production volume form UT’s mining contracting business. In addition, during 1Q10, the company’s mining contracting business posted lower quarterly coal production due to the rainy season.
• Overall, the result managed to satisfy our expectation, hence with current valuation of 2010F PER of 13.2x and EV/EBITDA of 7.2x, we still maintain buy on UNTR.
Mandiri Sekuritas United Tractors: 1Q10 net income up 12%yoy, within ours and consensus (UNTR, Rp19,600, Buy, TP: Rp19,600)
United Tractor’s 1Q10 results were in-line with our expectations and consensus. 1Q10 Revenue mix as follows 44% from heavy equipment sales, 46% from contract mining, while the remainder coming from coal sales (10%). With heavy equipment units’ sales up by 94%yoy to 1,218 units, revenues from construction machinery rose by 38%yoy to Rp3.8tn.
Meanwhile, increased production and better weather condition saw its mining contracting revenues grow by 27%yoy to Rp4tn. However, despite coal sales volume increase of 8%yoy, mining revenues dropped by 9%yoy to Rp840bn primarily as a result of weaker US dollar. Upside risk to our forecast mainly centers on sustained growth in machinery sales. We currently have a buy on the stock, which trades at PER10F of 16.3x.
Meanwhile, increased production and better weather condition saw its mining contracting revenues grow by 27%yoy to Rp4tn. However, despite coal sales volume increase of 8%yoy, mining revenues dropped by 9%yoy to Rp840bn primarily as a result of weaker US dollar. Upside risk to our forecast mainly centers on sustained growth in machinery sales. We currently have a buy on the stock, which trades at PER10F of 16.3x.
Mandiri Sekuritas PTBA: 1Q10 net income at Rp373bn, below ours and consensus estimates (PTBA, Rp19,000, Buy, TP: Rp18,750)
PTBA posted 1Q10 net income of Rp337bn (-59.5%yoy, -25.3%qoq), below ours and consensus estimates. YoY decline was due to lower ASP, while volume up by 14%yoy. Lower ASP was due to product mix shift to low quality coal in 1Q10.
1Q10 sales volume of 3.2mn tons represented 21% of our FY10F estimates
We still have Buy recommendation on PTBA which currently is trading at PER10-11F of 14.91-13.5x.
1Q10 sales volume of 3.2mn tons represented 21% of our FY10F estimates
We still have Buy recommendation on PTBA which currently is trading at PER10-11F of 14.91-13.5x.
Minggu, 18 April 2010
Danareksa United Tractors (UNTR IJ, Rp19,200 HOLD) On track but expensive
Highlights:
· Sales of UNTR’s Komatsu heavy equipment surged 157% yoy in March to 485 units. Sales to the mining sector (56%) and to the agro/plantations sector (23%) accounted for the bulk of sales. In terms of sales growth, however, sales to the logging and agro sectors showed the largest increases, with 1Q10 sales up by 364% and 284%, respectively, to 102 and 269 units.
· Pama’s coal production was steady in March at around the previous month’s level of 6.3 Mt. Overburden volume, however, saw a slight 2% MoM increase to 54.4 Mbcm. On a yearly basis, coal production and overburden volume in 1Q10 were 27% higher than in the corresponding period of 2009.
· DEJ’s coal sales rose further. They climbed 4% MoM to 261 Kt in March 10. As a result, DEJ’s coal sales rose 8% yoy in 1Q10 to 744 Kt (19% of our FY10 forecast).
Comments:
· Komatsu’s robust sales growth has come on the back of higher levels of coal production (as indicated by Pama’s 27% yoy higher coal production) and the booming plantations industry. Both these sectors are very prospective with firm demand for both coal and CPO. As a result of Komatsu’s excellent March sales, the 1Q10 sales are already 33% of our full year forecast of 3,700 units. However, it should be noted that the most productive months of the year for coal and plantation companies is in the period from April to August. Hence, sales of heavy equipment in the months toward the end of the year are generally weaker. As such, we believe our 10F sales figure for Komatsu heavy equipment is not too conservative.
· Pama’s biggest mining sites (such as Adaro’s) have enjoyed fine weather. This explains how Pama managed to step up its annual volume of work in 1Q10 while other mining contractors experienced lower production and lower overburden volume (Buma’s coal production fell to 7.7 Mt in 1Q10 from 7.9 Mt in 1Q09 whilst its overburden volume declined to 62.9 Mbcm in 1Q10 from 63.6 Mbcm in 1Q09). We therefore remain confident that our forecasts for Pama’s 2010F coal production of 76 Mt and overburden volume of 686.7 Mbcm can be achieved.
· We expect DEJ to deliver more coal in the coming months since expected better weather will allow for more shipments. This should mean that our forecast for DEJ’s 2010F coal sales of 3,850 Kt can be attained.
· Valuation wise, UNTR’s shares currently trade at PE 10F/11F of 14.8/13.3x. From the current share price there is only 9% upside to our TP of Rp21,000. As such we believe that HEXA is a better investment in this sector (it trades at consensus PE 10F/11F of 11.2/10.2x ). Maintain Hold on UNTR.
· Sales of UNTR’s Komatsu heavy equipment surged 157% yoy in March to 485 units. Sales to the mining sector (56%) and to the agro/plantations sector (23%) accounted for the bulk of sales. In terms of sales growth, however, sales to the logging and agro sectors showed the largest increases, with 1Q10 sales up by 364% and 284%, respectively, to 102 and 269 units.
· Pama’s coal production was steady in March at around the previous month’s level of 6.3 Mt. Overburden volume, however, saw a slight 2% MoM increase to 54.4 Mbcm. On a yearly basis, coal production and overburden volume in 1Q10 were 27% higher than in the corresponding period of 2009.
· DEJ’s coal sales rose further. They climbed 4% MoM to 261 Kt in March 10. As a result, DEJ’s coal sales rose 8% yoy in 1Q10 to 744 Kt (19% of our FY10 forecast).
Comments:
· Komatsu’s robust sales growth has come on the back of higher levels of coal production (as indicated by Pama’s 27% yoy higher coal production) and the booming plantations industry. Both these sectors are very prospective with firm demand for both coal and CPO. As a result of Komatsu’s excellent March sales, the 1Q10 sales are already 33% of our full year forecast of 3,700 units. However, it should be noted that the most productive months of the year for coal and plantation companies is in the period from April to August. Hence, sales of heavy equipment in the months toward the end of the year are generally weaker. As such, we believe our 10F sales figure for Komatsu heavy equipment is not too conservative.
· Pama’s biggest mining sites (such as Adaro’s) have enjoyed fine weather. This explains how Pama managed to step up its annual volume of work in 1Q10 while other mining contractors experienced lower production and lower overburden volume (Buma’s coal production fell to 7.7 Mt in 1Q10 from 7.9 Mt in 1Q09 whilst its overburden volume declined to 62.9 Mbcm in 1Q10 from 63.6 Mbcm in 1Q09). We therefore remain confident that our forecasts for Pama’s 2010F coal production of 76 Mt and overburden volume of 686.7 Mbcm can be achieved.
· We expect DEJ to deliver more coal in the coming months since expected better weather will allow for more shipments. This should mean that our forecast for DEJ’s 2010F coal sales of 3,850 Kt can be attained.
· Valuation wise, UNTR’s shares currently trade at PE 10F/11F of 14.8/13.3x. From the current share price there is only 9% upside to our TP of Rp21,000. As such we believe that HEXA is a better investment in this sector (it trades at consensus PE 10F/11F of 11.2/10.2x ). Maintain Hold on UNTR.
Senin, 25 Mei 2009
Danareksa Astra International (ASII IJ, Rp19,750 SELL) Still pricey
Gaining higher market share
We expect ASII to gain more share of the domestic car market in FY09 (55% compared to our previous estimate of 52%). As a result, our FY09 car sales estimate for ASII is boosted by 5% to Rp 31.8 tn. This upgrade reflects the strong demand for ASII’s brands given their better value for money and higher resale value. For motorcycles, however, we do not expect ASII to attain higher market share since Yamaha is putting up stiff competition. At the same time, we also maintain our industry sales estimates given that sales are broadly in line with our estimates. Note that 4M09 car sales are 29% of our full year estimate and 4M09 motorcycle sales are 32% of our full year estimate.
Tepid industry auto sales in 4M09
In 4M09, industry car sales are down 28% y-o-y (vs. our forecast of a 23% decline) while industry motorcycle sales fell 19% (vs. our forecast of an 18% fall). ASII’s car sales fared better, however - they dropped a less severe 18% while its motorcycle sales fell 17%. As a result, ASII boosted its share of the domestic car market to 57% in 4M09 from 50% in 4M08. ASII’s share of the motorcycle market was little changed (at 46%).
Maintain SELL with a new TP of Rp 17,345
Our updated sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) calculations yield a new net asset value (NAV) of Rp 70.2 tn or Rp 17,345 per share. Our TP implies PER09-10 of 9.9-8.0x and EV/EBITDA09-10 of 6.0-4.8x. We update our AALI TP to Rp 15,000 and UNTR TP to Rp 8,900 before deriving their equity values. Our share prices for AUTO, BNLI, and ASGR are as of 22 May 2009. The other calculations in the SOTP valuation are unchanged. We maintain our SELL recommendation as the stock is fully valued with 12% potential downside.
We expect ASII to gain more share of the domestic car market in FY09 (55% compared to our previous estimate of 52%). As a result, our FY09 car sales estimate for ASII is boosted by 5% to Rp 31.8 tn. This upgrade reflects the strong demand for ASII’s brands given their better value for money and higher resale value. For motorcycles, however, we do not expect ASII to attain higher market share since Yamaha is putting up stiff competition. At the same time, we also maintain our industry sales estimates given that sales are broadly in line with our estimates. Note that 4M09 car sales are 29% of our full year estimate and 4M09 motorcycle sales are 32% of our full year estimate.
Tepid industry auto sales in 4M09
In 4M09, industry car sales are down 28% y-o-y (vs. our forecast of a 23% decline) while industry motorcycle sales fell 19% (vs. our forecast of an 18% fall). ASII’s car sales fared better, however - they dropped a less severe 18% while its motorcycle sales fell 17%. As a result, ASII boosted its share of the domestic car market to 57% in 4M09 from 50% in 4M08. ASII’s share of the motorcycle market was little changed (at 46%).
Maintain SELL with a new TP of Rp 17,345
Our updated sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) calculations yield a new net asset value (NAV) of Rp 70.2 tn or Rp 17,345 per share. Our TP implies PER09-10 of 9.9-8.0x and EV/EBITDA09-10 of 6.0-4.8x. We update our AALI TP to Rp 15,000 and UNTR TP to Rp 8,900 before deriving their equity values. Our share prices for AUTO, BNLI, and ASGR are as of 22 May 2009. The other calculations in the SOTP valuation are unchanged. We maintain our SELL recommendation as the stock is fully valued with 12% potential downside.
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