Revenue 1H10 at Rp32.6tn (+5.0%yoy,6.4%QoQ)in line with our and consensus.Revenue from cellular up by 3.1%yoy (contributes 42.0%of revenue),data revenue up by 18.0%yoy (contributes 29.9%of revenue);meanwhile fixed line down 10.2%yoy (contributes 19.5%of revenue)
Operating profit slightly declined due to increase in maintenance expenses by 20%yoy and depreciation expense by 11%yoy as a result of higher capex.At the non-operating level,TLKM booked gain on foreign exchange at Rp111.3bn (-79.8%yoy)
Net income at Rp6.0tn (-0.7%yoy,+16.2%QoQ),in line with our estimates and consensus.
On subscriber numbers;cellular subscribers at 88.3mn (+16.2%yoy,7.6%qoq)ARPU Rp43k vs Rp47k (yoy);fixed line subscribers at 24.3mn (+9.4%yoy,0%q0q)and broadband subscribers (speedy)at 1.4mn (+73.6%yoy,9%yoy)
TLKM trades at PER10F of 14.3x,we currently have a buy on Telkom.
Tampilkan postingan dengan label 450. Tampilkan semua postingan
Tampilkan postingan dengan label 450. Tampilkan semua postingan
Senin, 02 Agustus 2010
Rabu, 21 Juli 2010
Mansek Kalbe Farma:1H10 results indication are inline with our forecast (KLBF, Rp2,450,Buy,TP:Rp2,500)
KLBF management indicated 1H10 revenues reached Rp4.73tn (+12%yoy)
and net income reached Rp518bn (+30%yoy).These indicative results
confirm our previous indicative results in our July 9 report.The Rp518bn
net profit,considering seasonality effect,is inline with our forecast as it
represents 41%of our FY10F forecast.
The management is targeting FY10 revenues of Rp10.45tn (inline with
ours),and net income of Rp1.11tn (13%below ours).
Regarding IGAR,KLBF decided to sell none-core packaging business IGAR.
IGAR was sold at Rp185/share (or a total of Rp113bn)with the transaction
to be completed within this year.According to the company,this is not a
material transaction.
We still have Buy recommendation for KLBF which is trading at PER10-11F
of 19.6-16.1x.
and net income reached Rp518bn (+30%yoy).These indicative results
confirm our previous indicative results in our July 9 report.The Rp518bn
net profit,considering seasonality effect,is inline with our forecast as it
represents 41%of our FY10F forecast.
The management is targeting FY10 revenues of Rp10.45tn (inline with
ours),and net income of Rp1.11tn (13%below ours).
Regarding IGAR,KLBF decided to sell none-core packaging business IGAR.
IGAR was sold at Rp185/share (or a total of Rp113bn)with the transaction
to be completed within this year.According to the company,this is not a
material transaction.
We still have Buy recommendation for KLBF which is trading at PER10-11F
of 19.6-16.1x.
Jumat, 14 Mei 2010
Mandiri Sekuritas Bank Negara Indonesia: results of the AGM (BBNI, Rp2,450, Buy, TP: Rp2,900)
BNI held its AGM on Wednesday, 12 May 2010 and announced some changes in its BOD and BOD composition. Key persons (Gatot M Suwondo as the President Director and Yap Tjay Soen as the CFO) maintained and four new directors were appointed:. Honggo Widjojo Kangmasto, Darmadi Sutanto, Adi Setianto and Sutanto. Honggo was formerly the Managing
Director of Bank Permata and ever worked for Indofood, Mandiri (as commercial director), BCA and BII, while Darmadi Sutanto was formerly Director of RBS Indonesia. The other two directors came from internal.
The AGM also approved the distribution of cash dividend amounted to Rp47.48/share, or translating into around 2.0% dividend yield. This is equivalent to 35% dividend payout.
Currently, BNI is trading at 2010F P/BV of 1.8x and PER of 10.6x. We maintained our buy recommendation on the bank with TP: Rp2,900 as our TP.
Director of Bank Permata and ever worked for Indofood, Mandiri (as commercial director), BCA and BII, while Darmadi Sutanto was formerly Director of RBS Indonesia. The other two directors came from internal.
The AGM also approved the distribution of cash dividend amounted to Rp47.48/share, or translating into around 2.0% dividend yield. This is equivalent to 35% dividend payout.
Currently, BNI is trading at 2010F P/BV of 1.8x and PER of 10.6x. We maintained our buy recommendation on the bank with TP: Rp2,900 as our TP.
Kamis, 13 Mei 2010
Mandiri Sekuritas Indotambang : 1Q10 within ours and consensus (ITMG, Rp35,450, Neutral, TP:Rp34,920)
Net income was 21.7% below Bloomberg consensus. However it is understandable as average coal price they obtained in 1Q10 of US$66.6/ton was in the low range of its US$65-70/ton. Its sales volume was ahead with 26% of its 23Mt sales target. As coal price is trending up, we expect ITMG to achieve and possibly surpass our FY10 estimate. We are keeping our forecasts. We have a Neutral recommendation. At Rp36,450, ITMG is traded at PER10F and PER11F of 15.4x and 12.8x, respectively with EV/EBITDA FY10F and FY11F of 81.x and 6.5x , respectively.
Minggu, 02 Mei 2010
Mandiri Sekuritas Bank Central Asia: 1Q2010 net profit increased 18.3% yoy (BBCA, Rp5,450, Buy, TP: Rp5,400)
BBCA reported increase in net profit for its 1Q2010 by 18.3%yoy, to reach Rp1,93 bn, which slightly below our expectation (-5.4%) but in line with consensus estimates (-4.4%).
BBCA’s Net Interest Income dropped by 26.8% yoy to Rp2,867bn this quarter. However, the decline occurred, mainly due to SBIs’ income re-classification, which based on the newly PSAK 50-55 implementation, it is posted under Non-Interest Income, led the account jumped by 83.2% yoy to Rp1,903bn, on which SBIs income contributed Rp665 bn. The bank posted net provisioning reversal of Rp303bn, much resulted from repayment on impaired loans, assisted the operating income arrived at Rp2,393bn (+29.8% yoy). YTD NIM stood at 5.5% (vs 5.8% 1Q09), mainly due to lower yield where as in line with market trend.
BBCA booked gross loan of Rp120.9bn, a slight decline by 2.5%, where cyclicality took major role, despite marginal growth in the corporate sector as top tier corporate issued bonds over the period. However, consumer sector continued to be the front-liner growth of the bank, thanks to lower interest rates that boosted the bank’s mortgage lending (48.4% of total consumer lending). 1Q2010 LDR posted at 49.6% (vs. 50.3% FY09), while NPL 0.8%, CAR 17.5% and ROE 30.9% (vs. 0.7%, 15.3% and 31.8% FY09, respectively).
The bank is currently trading at P/BV10 4.2x and PER10 17.1x. We still call Buy on the counter.
BBCA’s Net Interest Income dropped by 26.8% yoy to Rp2,867bn this quarter. However, the decline occurred, mainly due to SBIs’ income re-classification, which based on the newly PSAK 50-55 implementation, it is posted under Non-Interest Income, led the account jumped by 83.2% yoy to Rp1,903bn, on which SBIs income contributed Rp665 bn. The bank posted net provisioning reversal of Rp303bn, much resulted from repayment on impaired loans, assisted the operating income arrived at Rp2,393bn (+29.8% yoy). YTD NIM stood at 5.5% (vs 5.8% 1Q09), mainly due to lower yield where as in line with market trend.
BBCA booked gross loan of Rp120.9bn, a slight decline by 2.5%, where cyclicality took major role, despite marginal growth in the corporate sector as top tier corporate issued bonds over the period. However, consumer sector continued to be the front-liner growth of the bank, thanks to lower interest rates that boosted the bank’s mortgage lending (48.4% of total consumer lending). 1Q2010 LDR posted at 49.6% (vs. 50.3% FY09), while NPL 0.8%, CAR 17.5% and ROE 30.9% (vs. 0.7%, 15.3% and 31.8% FY09, respectively).
The bank is currently trading at P/BV10 4.2x and PER10 17.1x. We still call Buy on the counter.
Rabu, 14 April 2010
Mandiri Sekuritas BBTN: 1Q10 results in line with our expectation and consensus (BBTN, Rp1,450, Buy, TP: Rp1,200)
BTN recorded a net profit of Rp188bn (+71.6% yoy) in 1Q10, which was inline with our expectation and consensus estimates.
The bank actually recorded higher than expected net interest income,msupported by lower interest expenses. This led to a high NIM of 5.6% in 1Q09 compared with 4.7% for FY09. Such strong NIM was supported by strong growth in loans (+28.6% yoy to Rp43.1 tn at end Mar10), which is dominated by housing loans (93% of total loans). Meanwhile, fee based income also grew high at 136.8% yoy to Rp266bn in 1Q10. S
Such strong performance in NII and fee based income allowed the increase in provisioning expenses to Rp107 bn in 1Q10 from Rp3 bn in 1Q09). Such high provisioning expenses was partly to cover higher NPL recorded in 1Q10 of 4.0% at end Mar10 compared with 3.4% at end Dec09.
At present, BTN is trading at 2010F P/BV of 2.1x and PER ofr 14.0x. We are reviewing our forecast on the bank. For the time being, we maintained our buy recommendation on the counter.
The bank actually recorded higher than expected net interest income,msupported by lower interest expenses. This led to a high NIM of 5.6% in 1Q09 compared with 4.7% for FY09. Such strong NIM was supported by strong growth in loans (+28.6% yoy to Rp43.1 tn at end Mar10), which is dominated by housing loans (93% of total loans). Meanwhile, fee based income also grew high at 136.8% yoy to Rp266bn in 1Q10. S
Such strong performance in NII and fee based income allowed the increase in provisioning expenses to Rp107 bn in 1Q10 from Rp3 bn in 1Q09). Such high provisioning expenses was partly to cover higher NPL recorded in 1Q10 of 4.0% at end Mar10 compared with 3.4% at end Dec09.
At present, BTN is trading at 2010F P/BV of 2.1x and PER ofr 14.0x. We are reviewing our forecast on the bank. For the time being, we maintained our buy recommendation on the counter.
Kamis, 01 April 2010
NISP Rajawali Group to sell its stake on Semen Gresik at Rp7,000/share (SMGR, Rp7,450, Buy)
• It is reported that Rajawali Group, through its subsidiary Blue Valley Holdings, plans to sell a 17.4% stake at Semen Gresik (SMGR) at US$800mn or that translates into Rp7,000/share. The selling price is at a 6% discount to the share’s last traded price.
• Rajawali Group has appointed JP Morgan as the sole book runner for the transaction which will be offered through a book building process to investors. It also has an option to sell an additional 6.3% to total 23.7%.
• We believe this transaction is only on shareholder level, thus will not affect Semen Gresik’s operational performance. The company has previously said that although Rajawali Group sells its stake; it will only give minimal impact to the company as its management system has already well developed.
• However, this transaction will give some negative sentiment on the share price as the execution price is well below the current market price.
• As this transaction will only give minimal impact on the company’s performance, we still maintain our Buy stances on the counter. Semen Gresik is currently trading at 2010F PER of 11.4x and EV/EBITDA of 6.4x.
• Rajawali Group has appointed JP Morgan as the sole book runner for the transaction which will be offered through a book building process to investors. It also has an option to sell an additional 6.3% to total 23.7%.
• We believe this transaction is only on shareholder level, thus will not affect Semen Gresik’s operational performance. The company has previously said that although Rajawali Group sells its stake; it will only give minimal impact to the company as its management system has already well developed.
• However, this transaction will give some negative sentiment on the share price as the execution price is well below the current market price.
• As this transaction will only give minimal impact on the company’s performance, we still maintain our Buy stances on the counter. Semen Gresik is currently trading at 2010F PER of 11.4x and EV/EBITDA of 6.4x.
Minggu, 28 Maret 2010
Mandiri Sekuritas Unilever Indonesia: FY09 results, slightly above our expectation (UNVR, Rp12,450, Buy, TP: Rp13,000)
Given global economic downturn, Unilever posted Rp18.2tn net sales (+17.1% yoy) and Rp3.0tn earnings (+26.5% yoy) in FY09. This earnings figure is slightly above our and consensus expectations as it represents 104-105% of the earnings forecast.
We think a top-line growth of 17.1% yoy and an operating margin improvement of 110bps are good achievement for the company, considering the weakening rupiah exchange rate on yearly basis (FY09: Rp10,397/US$, FY08: Rp9,684/US$). On a quarterly basis, however, operating profit declined by 2.1%, which largely due to heavy advertising
spending, in our view.
Therefore, with an outlook of stronger rupiah exchange rate this year, we foresee Unilever could easily reach our earnings target of Rp3.4tn in FY10F (+15.7% yoy).
Currently, UNVR is trading at PER10F of 28.1x. Maintain Buy.
We think a top-line growth of 17.1% yoy and an operating margin improvement of 110bps are good achievement for the company, considering the weakening rupiah exchange rate on yearly basis (FY09: Rp10,397/US$, FY08: Rp9,684/US$). On a quarterly basis, however, operating profit declined by 2.1%, which largely due to heavy advertising
spending, in our view.
Therefore, with an outlook of stronger rupiah exchange rate this year, we foresee Unilever could easily reach our earnings target of Rp3.4tn in FY10F (+15.7% yoy).
Currently, UNVR is trading at PER10F of 28.1x. Maintain Buy.
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