Antam (ANTM IJ) – Unaudited FY08 results not looking great, focus on gold for now, from Olie
The company posted a net profit of Rp1.3tn in FY08, down by 74% YoY. The result came in below our and consensus estimates, largely due to much higher than forecasted costs.
Poor operating performance in 4Q08 as the company booked an operating loss of Rp438bn as compared to a profit of Rp67bn in 3Q08. Operating profit in FY08 was around 30% below our forecast.
The company booked Rp229bn in net loss from derivatives and forex, less than assumed. The company posted Rp247bn and Rp192bn in derivative and dual currency deposit losses, while booking Rp227bn of forex gain.
With bullish outlook for gold with the potential for overshooting, a much more visible impact of gold to earnings, and somewhat limited downside risk on nickel, there is a trading opportunity on Antam.
We are reviewing our earnings forecast for Antam, though we think our numbers are conservative as they are 60% below consensus. At this juncture, we retain our O-PF rating.
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