Preliminary car sales is reported at 64.2k units in Apr10 which continue to show a strong 85% yoy growth although down slightly (-2% mom) from Mar10. Underlying demand is also strong with retail sales (to end consumer) runs at 57,650 units, 10% below the wholesale sales. This might reflects dealers/showrooms building up some inventory as well as time lag between customer booking and delivery. Note that the growth rate will slow down in 2H10 due to higher base. There is a risk that some local government increase registration tax from 10% to 20% which might temporary hurt volume (3-4 months decline is sales based on past experience).
Indonesia is on the way to sell 1m units car by 2012 (vs. 486k units in 2009) based on sustainable GDP growth above 6% (CLSA forecast 7% GDP growth in 2010). Astra International is well positioned to benefit from this J-curve growth with its 55% market share.
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