We continue to be bearish with 2H nickel price while remains positive with Gold price. For 2011F EBITDA, we are forecasting 50-50 from Gold and Nickel. At Rp2,050- ANTM is trading on 13.5x-15.1x 2010F-11F PER and implying 7% downside to Target Price Rp1,900 (based on 6.3x 2010F EV/EBITDA), therefore we maintain Hold ANTM.
· Fonny Surya: ANTM posted Rp756.3 bn of net profit in 1H10 (55% of consensus, 52% of our FY10 estimates) increased 238% YoY from 1H09 figures of Rp223.8 bn. Operating profit is about 67% of our 2010E, or 64% concensus, up 117% QoQ and 416% YoY due to stronger nickel prices in 2Q10. This is inline with our expectations as we expect to see highest nickel prices in 2Q10 but lower nickel prices into 2H10. Net income is also supported by dividends from Newcrest's Gosowong gold mine, which is expected to contribute to approximately 10% of earnings in 2010.
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