Adaro Energy (ADRO) 2Q earnings fell sharply to Rp292b (-66%qoq, -74%yoy) due to weaker 2Q output, rising production costs, Rp121b forex loss and higher effective tax rate. 1H10 net profit came up at Rp1.1t (-49%yoy) accounted for only 30% of our FY forecast.
2Q10 output fell to 10.3m tons (-10%qoq) due to wet weather in June with 1H output at 47% of our FY forecast. We estimate 2Q ASP rose slightly to US$57/ton (+3.7%qoq) while production cost rose by 12%qoq to US$43/ton on higher mining costs. As a result, gross margin fell to 30% from 36%. Meanwhile, unexpected increase in effective tax rate of 65% in 2Q from 49% in 1Q pushed earnings even lower. We expect earnings to recover in 2H due to seasonally higher production and higher ASP. There is a possibility of downward revision in our FY10F earnings, pending clarity from the company on the tax rate.
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