>>MSCI – Two additions to MSCI Indonesia: Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (CPIN) and Kalbe Farma (KLBF). Estimated buying volume for CPIN is 43.5mn shares, for KLBF is 133mn shares.>>>
"إِنَّا مَكَّنَّا لَهُۥ فِى ٱلْأَرْضِ وَءَاتَيْنَهُ مِن كُلِّ شَىْءٍۢ سَبَبًۭا فَأَتْبَعَ سَبَبًا Sesungguhnya Kami telah memberi kekuasaan kepadanya di (muka) bumi, dan Kami telah memberikan kepadanya jalan (untuk mencapai) segala sesuatu, maka diapun menempuh suatu jalan." (QS. AL KAHFI:84-85)
>> Saham Agung Podomoro Dilepas Rp365 per Unit >>> INDY: After mkt close the major shareholders placed out a USD 200m block of stock, or about 10% of cap at 3675 (range 3600-3725) at a 5.7% discount. The placement was said to be 3X subscribed to.

My Family

Minggu, 25 Oktober 2009

CLSA Excelcomindo still struggling, BUY TLKM

Our research assistant Vera Ongyono has just written her first report: Excelcomindo (EXCL IJ). Free float in this telco operator is less than 1%, so it is not really investable for most investors, but Vera’s report provides an interesting insight into the third largest mobile operator in Indonesia (and also the most aggressive). The company has 17% market share of the subscriber market but only 9% share of the profits.

EXCL’s balance sheet is the weakest amongst the big three, carrying net debt of Rp15tn as of 1H09. A US$300mn rights issue will alleviate the immediate cash draught. However, as EXCL has almost Rp1.3tn of debt maturing this year itself and plans to spend USD300m in capex. Unless there is a significant price increase without customers lost, EXCL’s operating cash flow may not be able to cover its capital expenditure.

Mobile tariff in Indonesia has dropped off from US$0.12/min to US$0.02/min, literally from one of the highest in the world to one of the cheapest within 6 months. No wonder that EXCL only generated Rp2.2tn in operating cash flows out of Rp10.7tn capex investment last year.

Clearly, the cash bleeding can’t go on forever. In fact, after years of price war, price has finally started to show an improvement. Rev/min has finally risen albeit very slowly. With 9 mobile companies still operating in Indonesia, expect price recovery (i.e. price increase without losing subscribers) to be gradual at best.

Rival Indosat is faring bit better, but is clearly still struggling as well. Even during the peak season in Sept09 for Ramadhan, this second largest mobile operator was not able to improve its operating profit (see analyst Wili comment for Indosat’s weak 9M09 results.

We prefer dominant Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ) as it has the strongest balance sheet and brand equity. Profitability has already improved and sub growth is likely to follow. BUY TLKM

Tidak ada komentar:

Posting Komentar

Yahoo! Finance: Top Stories

Reuters: Business News

Insider Stories

CNBC Top News and Analysis

» Ekobiz

The Wall Street Journal

AnggunTraders.com

Commodity Online Metals News

Britama.com

Palm Oil Prices

Commodities-Markets-The Economic Times

Detikfinance

BusinessWeek.com -- Top News

Palm Oil HQ Daily Update

Business Times : marketwatch

VIVAnews - BISNIS

The Star Online: Business

Inilah.com -

Latest financial news - CNNMoney.com

Tempointeraktif.com - Bisnis

ChinaDaily > bizchina

Sindikasi economy.okezone.com

Commodity News

Bursa Rumor - Tempatnya Investor Saham Cari Berita

Financial Times - Financial markets news

Hellenic Shipping News

ANTARA - Ekonomi & Bisnis

Industrial Metals & Minerals Industry News

Republika Online - Ekonomi

Yahoo Commodities News