USD2.1b capex
The Bloomberg reported that TLKM is seeking to raise USD735m in financing to fund its USD2.1b capex for FY10F. This represents 35% of TLKM’s planned capex. A similar USD2.1b is also budgeted for FY09F capex.
Our forecasts currently imputed slightly higher capex of USD2.4b and USD2.2b for FY09F and FY10F respectively, which we think are conservative. Lowering these to TLKM’s latest guidance of USD2.1b could raise FY09F core net profit by 2% and FY10F by 6%. Consequently, this could lift our DCF-based price target by 4%.
Pending the announcement of TLKM’s 3Q09 results and analyst briefing, we are keeping our forecasts and DCF-based price target of Rp10,500. We continue to like TLKM for: (i) the growth potential a rebounding Indonesian economy would offer the telecommunications industry; (ii) TLKM’s potential to gain market share after competitor Indosat (ISAT IJ) raised effective call tariff; and (iii) TLKM’s strong balance sheet that enables the group to be competitive or to defend its market share. Also, the stronger IDR vs. the USD helps to lower the cost of capex for telcos. We retain our BUY call on TLKM.
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