Market Events are now 1) 3Q09 earnings season this week until end-October, 2) The 100 days progress of President SBY from October 21st until end-January, 3) January Effect, 4) 4Q09 results in Feb-April, and 5) 1Q10 results by end-April. At JCI 2,468pts (14.0x 2010F PER with 19.3% EPS Growth), we continue to be Positive with Indonesian markets with 6-9 months Index Target circa 2,700pts (15.2x 2010F PER, based on average 1992-1997 market PER), with Top-Picks remain UNTR (13.7x), INDF (13.8x), BBRI (10.1x)/BDMN (14.7x), PGAS (11.5x), ASII (13.7x)/BBCA (15.4x), SMGR (10.4x) and PTBA (8.8x)/ITMG (13.9x)! My small cap picks are SGRO (12.0x)/LSIP (13.7x), ELTY (45% Discount to RNAV)/CTRA (41% Discount to RNAV) and JSMR (14.1x)!
· Cem Karacadag (Daily): We visited Jakarta recently. Our main takeaways are: 1) there should be no surprises in the new cabinet or policy programme due by this and the next weeks, 2) the appreciation of the Indonesian rupiah may have run its course, with the balance of risks potentially favouring its stability, if not a pull back, in the rest of 2009, and 3) inflation could become a thorn in 2010, although Bank Indonesia is in no hurry to hike rates.
· Arief Wana (Attached New Cabinet): My view on New Cabinet announcement last week is that it looks disappointing at the surface (20 out of 34 are from political parties, including Golkar), but to be fair, these political parties have signed an agreement with SBY's democrat to support the coalition. This agreement would also enable SBY to reshuffle if targets or achievements were not met. And this could be a soon as the first 100days. SBY has been quoted as saying that the ministers are responsible to President, not their political leaders. So, it is premature to say that SBY's strong mandate is not going to be effective, in my view.
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