ASII IJ remains a Core Holding in Indonesian market, given 1) Strong Domestic Franchise and upside from Commodities, 2) Strong Management and Balance Sheet, and 3) Top-5 largest stocks in Indonesia. At Rp32,650/share, ASII IJ is trading on 13.7x 2010F PER with +12% EPS Growth. I personally recommend to Accumulate for 12-months horizon!
· Arief Wana (Daily): Due to the Lebaran holidays, Indonesia’s September auto sales volume dropped on both MoM (23% for cars and 33% for motorcycles) and YoY bases. Despite the seasonality, the September volume remained higher than the 1H09 average, suggesting the positive momentum. On 9M09, the volume declined by 28% YoY (versus our forecasts’ of -20%) for cars and 14% YoY (-10%) for motorcycles. We expect the momentum to reverse in the coming month and YoY growth to accelerate due to the weak 4Q08 data.
· The positive outcome is on Astra’s market shares for both cars and motorcycles, which continue to stay high (above its normal market share) despite a rising market, especially for motorcycles. The impact of new scooter capacity in motorcycle market continues to have positive impact on Astra’s market share.
· While we see earnings upside risks on the motorcycle division (currently only 10% of Astra’s profit), we maintain our earnings for the time being.
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