Bank Rakyat is going to report its 1Q10 financial results on Friday morning April 30, 2010 at 9:00AM. There is an analyst meeting but no dial in is provided.
• We think the numbers will be good. Rakyat experienced 2% loan contraction thru February, and we anticipate 1Q will reflect slightly negative QoQ loan growth fueled by the retail segment. We expect the NIM to show some strength as longer dated time deposits begin repricing lower in 1Q. The big question will be the impact of PSAK 55, as with other banks in the micro lending space we expect fee income to receive a boost at the expense of margin business.
• Our 10CL forecast stands at Rp8.5tn or Rp 696 per share. We are 3% below the street
estimate.
• It is our opinion that credit issues will remain on the docket at BRI (medium size loan NPL's north of 12%) but the headline number will likely outweigh this. We will likely have to revise our earnings higher following the earnings release on Friday.
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