INDF reported FY09 results inline with our forecast. This year, persisting low wheat price, stronger Rupiah and higher CPO, should boost the company’s EBIT margin to 15.7% (from 13.5% in FY09). Below the line, we expect INDF to register more than Rp200 bn forex gain and lower interest expense, also due to Rupiah strength. As such, EPS should swell 29% YoY to Rp305/share, in our view. Currently it is trading at 12.6x PE 2010F, a staggering 21% discount to average PE 06-09! BUY.
Noodles and Bogasari to increase margin
In FY09, noodles and Bogasari booked 11.8% and 10% EBIT margin respectively on the back of stable wheat price. Provided bearish wheat price to prevail in FY10F, we expect noodles to book even higher margin, 12%. Bogasari should also continue to post higher profitability, as it registered 13% margin in 2H09, even higher than FY04-08 period!
…and so will plantations
Ever since January, CPO has been hovering between USD700-800 level and this should translate to 35% EBIT margin for FY10F, in our view. In FY09, plantations only booked 9.4% margin. We believe the company should be able to secure our target given bullish CPO outlook this year.
Indolakto is catching up
In 4Q09, dairy registered 10.6% EBIT margin, exactly on management’s target on its acquisition. We expect Indolakto to defend this margin on Rupiah strength and weaker sugar price. Despite dairy only accounts for 5% of total EBIT, it’s contribution still superior than other CBP.
BUY with higher TP
We upgrade our forecast on strong margin and derived new TP at Rp4450/share. Our TP implies 14.6x PE 2010F, offering 17% upside potential. Aside from that, we expect investors to reap 2.1% dividend yield, assuming 30% dividend pay out of FY09 net profit.
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar