At a Glance
• AALI’s 1Q10 results were 28% below our estimates on annualized basis and less than half consensus estimates
• Drop in third-party FFB purchases and stronger IDR were mostly to blame
• Forecasts unchanged for now, as we expect third-party FFB to pick up in the following quarters
• Reiterate Fully Valued call
Comment on Results
Astra Agro Lestari (AALI) 1Q10 earnings were about 28% below our expectations on annualized basis. A 34.4% y-o-y drop in 3rd party FFB purchases contributed to 3.2% y-o-y and 1.2% y-o-y decline in CPO production and sales volumes respectively. Stronger IDR (from Rp9,433 at end-2009 to Rp9,115 at end Mar 2010) had also restrained its revenue growth to 16% y-o-y to Rp1,633.1b (full year forecast growth is 3.8% y-o-y to Rp7,710.1b). The group’s 1Q10 CPO ASP was Rp6,544/kg (+19.1% y-o-y) – close to spot ASP of Rp7,060/kg (14.2% y-o-y) – while in USD terms, spot CPO price (FOB Malaysia) had actually grown by 43.4% y-o-y to US$763/MT. With stronger IDR, AALI also incurred Rp19.2b FX loss emanating from its USD cash holdings of U$74m as at March 2010.
The group was debt-free (no drawdown of the US$150m term and revolving loan facilities in 1Q10); and booked a much shorter cash conversion cycle of 16 days (vs 39 days in the previous quarter) mainly due to extended payable days.
Recommendation
Pending further update, we are maintaining our sales volume forecasts for the year, as we expect 3rd party FFB to pick up and ramp up milling capacity utilization in next quarters.
Our FY10F earnings forecast of Rp2,043.3b, TP of Rp21,200 and Fully Valued call on the counter are all maintained.
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar