BCA is going to report its 1Q10 financial results on Thursday evening April 29, 2010 at 5:00PM. There is an analyst meeting but no dial in is provided.
• We think the numbers will be weaker than peer earnings as slow loan growth and NIM
contraction likely. Loan growth through February fell by 3.4%. BCA is similar to Mandiri with its seasonality impact. We note that BMRI reported strong March loan growth of 2%, if BCA could match this it would represent a positive catalyst going into 2Q.
• We believe investors must be aware of the impact of PSAK in the quarter and how it effects the coverage ratio, this could support earnings. Do not be surprised it initial NIM contraction is larger than anticipated, this will likely be attributed to the accounting change for amortization of loan related fees.
• Our 10CL forecast stands at Rp8.8tn or Rp361 per share. We are 10% above the street
estimate.
• Generally speaking we have had to revise higher our bank forecasts, but we are less
confident that this will be the case at BCA. In 3 of the last 5 years BCA has reported lower QoQ profits and in only 1 of those years did profits exceed 23% of FY earnings.
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