Strong rupiah and higher-than-expected taxes weighed on Adaro's 1Q10 results. Net income dropped 24.5% y-y to Rp861b (19% of CIRA’s 2010E and 22% of consensus'). EBIT was down 16% y-y to Rp2.1t (20% of CIRA's 2010E; 25% of consensus') on 4% revenue drop.
Stripping out exchange rate impacts, revenue would have been c.18% higher. We estimate Adaro's ASP at US$56/t in 1Q10 (lower than our 2010E of US$59/t) – down from the estimated US$61/t in 1Q09. We expect ASP to improve in subsequent quarters, in-line with improving coal prices and the fact that 15%- 20% of this year’s volume was yet to be priced at the end of 1Q10.
Robust volume growth mitigated the impacts of strong rupiah and lower ASP. Sales volume (including coal trading) surged 31% y-y to 11.5m tons – slightly above our expectation.
Below the operating line, the bottom line was weighed by surging interest expenses which surged 57% as the company issued US$800m bonds last October. Effective tax rate was up to 49% in 1Q10 vs. 47% in 1Q09 (CIRA’s 2010E: 45%).
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