Finally, Greece accepted an unprecedented bailout from the European Union and International Monetary Fund valued at more than 100 billion Euros ($133 billion) to prevent default, agreeing to budget cuts that unions called “savage.” (Sunday, May 02, 2010)Most Southeast Asian stock markets gained on Friday, helped by good results and accelerating economic growth in the region. But U.S. stocks fell, after credit downgrades for Greece, Portugal and Spain spurred concern that global economic growth will slow. The Dow lost 195.67 points, or 1.8 percent, to 11,008.61, the largest weekly losses since January. Some people are now questioning if maybe the worst is not over for Greece and Portugal. The sovereign risk will weigh on Europe and the global economy.
Indonesian market still maintain positive momentum, flow was healthy and IDR continuous strengthen.
FROM THE RESULT:
PTBA
PTBA reported 1Q10 net income of Rp373B, down 59.5% Y/Y and down 25.3% Q/Q. PTBA’s 1Q10 result came in lower than consensus’ (13.8%). The ASP at the export market declined by 40.5% Y/Y from US$95.9/ton to US$57.0/ton. Domestic selling price at PLTU Suralaya declined by 22.5% from Rp884,000/ton to Rp685,000/ton. This was also added by stronger Rupiah that affected revenue from export market.
Considering the potential improvement in operations going forward, and continued positive progress on the Transpacific railway, but the company’s results are below expectation and might require adjustment for the company’s 2010F net income estimate.
My Comment: The share price could be under pressure short term due to the 1Q10 earnings, but with stronger coal price and railway project I still have Buy recommendation on PTBA.
BBCA
BBCA reported 1Q10 net profit is 4% below consensus, loan growth was weak at -2% QoQ, and asset quality remained resilient. The bank’s NIM decreased to 5.5% from 7.0% mainly due to SBIs’ income re-classification. BBCA booked gross loan a slight decline by 2.5%. LDR posted at 49.6% vs. 50.3% FY09, while NPL 0.8% vs. 0.7% FY09, CAR 17.5% vs. 15.3% and ROE 30.9% vs. 31.8% FY09. While BCA is trading at 20% PE premium to their Asian peers.
My Comment: The share price was trading at 4.2x BV and 18.73x PE10 (Bloomberg) premium on the sector, and we maintain Hold or sell on strength.
UNTR
UNTR net income grew 12% YoY in 1Q10, Operating profit is +10% QoQ, but -2% YoY (below consensus expectation). The company posted a slightly lower gross profit of Rp1.6tn in 1Q10 as compared to Rp1.7tn, amid stronger Rupiah. Continued appreciation of the rupiah however means gross margins would remain under pressure. UNTR will continue logging robust revenue growth for the rest of the year as mining and plantation companies ramp up their capex spending after a sharp cut in 2009.
My Comment: The result managed to satisfy. I believe the company will post faster growth in the next quarters amid higher demand on heavy equipment products and also higher production volume form mining contracting business, maintain Hold.
LSIP
LSIP posted 1Q10 revenues +10.1%yoy but -26.8%qoq. CPO production decreased by 6.1% but 1Q10 gross margin improved due to higher ASP of rubber in 1Q10. Surging rubber prices should remain a key stock driver.
My Comment: The result slightly below consensus but with higher ASP from rubber, efficiency improvements and higher CPO prices at mid-term I still put Hold recommendation.
PGAS
PGN booked Rp1.77tn net profit in 1Q10 or up by 45.2% YoY in line with consensus estimate. The company’s distribution volume is up by 16.6% YoY to reach 841 mmscfd vs 721 mmscfd. The company booked forex gain about Rp199bn in 1Q10 as most loans are US$ denominated.
My Comment: I Expect stronger 2Q after 15% average gas price hike effective Apr10, maintain Hold recommendation.
Bang Juntri
DISCLAIMER: This report is issued by Bang Juntri. Although the contents of this document may represent the personal opinion of Bang Juntri. We cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness.
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