There is upside earnings risk upon 2Q results next week and ASII June-YTD auto sales are already Ahead 57% of 2010F for cars and Ahead 58% of 2010F for motorcycles, and ASII remains our Top-pick as Core Holding in Indonesia market! Given our Index Target 3,300pts implies 10% upside and current SOTP Rp52,000/share, we maintain Neutral rating on ASII (@Rp49,300).
Arief Wana : June industry auto sales volumes stayed robust (+78% YoY for cars and +35% YoY for motorcycles) on: 1) the seasonally-high demand, ahead of the Lebaran holidays, 2) delivery of April-May orders, and 3) more promotions. The YTD run rate is around 10% above our forecasts.
Astra’s market share in cars stayed solid, but its motorcycle market share declined to 45% (from 50% in the previous month) due to clearing its inventory for the upcoming new models this month.
We see positive impact on Astra’s share price in the short term. While we see earnings upside risk rising for Astra International, we maintain our NEUTRAL rating on the stock due to valuations, and continue to see Astra as a more core holding for the market.
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