Mansek Bukit Asam :A lot of catching up to do (PTBA,Rp16,550,Neutral,TP:Rp18,650)

Bukit Asam announced its new contract price and amount for PLN power plants,Tarahan and Bukit Asam.Tarahan will received 750k tons at Rp570,000/ton and Bukit Asam will receive 1.1Mt at Rp430,000/tons.With this announcement PTBA has settled all the contracts with PLN including January 21,2010 contract to supply Suralaya power plant 5.5Mt at Rp685,000/tons.With the contracted amount and prices with PLN,we expects PTBA has a lot to catch up on the export front

Catching up the volume.With PLN contracted amount and export in 1Q10 (we assume no domestic sales aside from PLN in 1Q10),PTBA has to find market for its 6,978k tons of coal.This assumed PTBA will fulfill its 15.6Mt of FY10 sales guidance.Can they make it since 1Q10 they only sold 3.2Mt (20.5%of FY10 guidance)and April sales is only 828k tons. Based on April 2010 sales volume it will be tough to maintain guidance.

And also ASP.We also estimated that PTBA need to have an ASP of US$63.6/ton for its remaining volume.Can they achieve it,considering ASP 1Q10 for export is just US$57/ton.That also assumed that all the remaining volume is for export which is usually have higher price.PTBA mentioned that 1Q10 export was mainly on coal with 5,900 kcal,and expect to send higher calorific coals in the future.Based on these recent data,we conclude that there is likelihood of downward adjustments in consensus forecast.