Negotiates higher than expected coal price
Perusahaan Listrik Negara has agreed to pay Rp570,000/ton (+8.6%yoy) for 750,000 tons of coal delivered to Tarahan power plant and Rp430,000/ton (+5.5%yoy) for 1.1m tons of coal delivered to Bukit Asam power plant this year. The combined coal supplies equal to 12% of our FY10F target sales volume of 15m tons.
The agreed price is 16% and 13% higher than our price assumption of Rp490,000/ton and Rp381,000/ton respectively. Imputing the number into our model, we estimate average selling price (ASP) to increase by 1.7% to Rp633,000/ton (US$70/ton) and will increase net profit by 4% to Rp2.8t. We maintain our number at the moment, waiting for 2Q10 result to be released by the end of the month.
Maintain Buy, TP of Rp21,350/share offering 28% upside potential.
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