(KLBF IJ / KLBF.JK, OUTPERFORM - Upgraded, Rp870 - Tgt. Rp1,050, Healthcare)
Kalbe's management has guided for higher sales growth of 12-15% vs. 12-13% previously, citing an improving demand outlook. Meanwhile, energy drinks are showing nascent signs of a recovery and could be a significant earnings booster if the strong 1Q performance can be sustained. Our earnings upgrade could be at least 5-10% should management deliver. We are maintaining our forecasts for now, but incorporate a higher mid-term growth outlook, lifting our long-term growth estimate from 4.7% to 7%. This lifts our DCF-based target price (WACC 16.2%) to Rp1,050 from Rp890, implying 13.3x and 9.6x CY09-10 earnings. We upgrade the stock from Neutral to Outperform.
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