Let’s start with the survey data i.e. the scientific way. Unfortunately, surveyors’ credibility has been dented after many admitted to financing by the candidates. The following data is mostly derived from the LSI survey conducted on 15-20 Jun 09 and published on 24 Jun. For this survey, LSI was partly financed by FoxIndonesia, which is a consultant to the SBY campaign team. And it has been under a lot of pressure of late, which probably explains why it took the pain to elaborate its method, samples, present and former clients (including Golkar & PDI-P) as well as showcase its past record. It is still generally viewed as the most consistent of the surveyors.
With that in mind, its survey still shows that SBY is leading by a wide margin, albeit declining. JK’s popularity is rising rapidly. Assuming a linear projection to 8 Jul and using the decline/increase from previous surveys, adding margins for error (by bumping up JK & Mega but scaling down SBY), SBY should still win by about 60%, by our estimates, which concurs with LSI’s calculation, though LSI was more generous to JK & Mega than what our calculation shows. Assuming that the 8% of ‘undecided’ voters - based on the 15-20 Jun 09 survey – were to give their votes to candidates other than SBY, SBY would still secure a majority. LSI added that its track record (fortunately there were many regional elections over the past five years) shows that if a candidate leads by a wide margin prior to voting day, the candidate never loses. Nation wide, the survey data suggests SBY would win a majority.
There is, however, another criterion to be met for winning in one round: the candidate must garner at least 20% of the votes in 17 provinces (out of 33), which is designed to ensure the winner is not Java-centric, since 60% of the voters reside in Java. Based on the 18 largest provinces – eligible voters wise – LSI’s survey suggests that SBY would easily meet the threshold, even after accounting for some error (“conservative” in Figure 4).
The bottom line is, SBY would win in one round, based on the survey.
Now come the less scientific view. Campaign strategy/targeting wise, Megawati is probably the most aggressive, offering the most radical programmes which appeal to the less fortunate in the population. She and her running mate, Prabowo, are the only ones offering ‘political contracts’, listed on their campaign website, among which is a vow to eliminate outsourcing for workers and legal action in the Lapindo mudflow disaster (that should make the Bakrie Group anxious). Research done by the leading newspaper, Kompas, shows that Megawati has won over strong support from fishermen and blue-collar workers in general, while JK’s core supporters reside outside Java and are higher net worth individuals (an interesting point).
Meanwhile, SBY’s supporters are generally young, better educated and widespread demographically.
JK’s popularity is gaining momentum. If such acceleration is superimposed on LSI’s survey, he might just be able to capture more than 20% of the vote, probably at the expense of SBY. This would make one round of election less likely, if Megawati manages to arrest her slide.
If SBY is pitted against JK in the second round, the latter could be the dark horse, given that the Megawati camp would likely support him. Anecdotally, many appear less certain that elections could be completed in one round.
Jakarta - Hasil sementara quick count sejumlah lembaga survei yang menunjukan SBY-Boediono unggul akan direspons positif oleh investor. Aliran modal akan kembali mengalir sehingga bisa memicu penguatan lagi di pasar saham.
