NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of some top coal companies were down at the close of trading:
Arch Coal fell $.16 or 1.3 percent, to $12.53.
Consol Energy fell $.65 or 2.5 percent, to $24.88.
Massey Energy fell $.36 or 3.4 percent, to $10.13.
Peabody Energy fell $.76 or 3.4 percent, to $21.84.
Sabtu, 07 Maret 2009
GlobalCoal Newcastle Coal Index
Weekly NEWC Coal Index
06-Feb-09 78.17
13-Feb-09 80.28
20-Feb-09 76.34
27-Feb-09 65.32
06-Mar-09 61.70
Monthly NEWC Coal Index
Nov-2008 91.36
Dec-2008 78.18
Jan-2009 82.69
Feb-2009 75.03
06-Feb-09 78.17
13-Feb-09 80.28
20-Feb-09 76.34
27-Feb-09 65.32
06-Mar-09 61.70
Monthly NEWC Coal Index
Nov-2008 91.36
Dec-2008 78.18
Jan-2009 82.69
Feb-2009 75.03
UPDATE: Stocks Could Skyrocket After March 12th
Stocks Could Skyrocket After March 12th
On that date, a House financial services subcommittee plans a hearing on mark-to-market accounting rules, which have been blamed for forcing banks to report billions of dollars in write-downs.
The catalyst involves mark-to-market accounting; which has been blamed for forcing banks to record billions of dollars in writedowns.
According to Reuters, a U.S. House Financial Services subcommittee is expected to hold a hearing on mark-to-market accounting rules as soon as March 12. The SEC's chief accountant and the chairman of the Financial Accounting Standards Board, will be asked to testify, the report said.
If that meeting results in the government relaxing mark-to-market rules, Najarian thinks the stock market could explode.
He says, “if the government relaxes mark-to-market for 12 to 18 months you could see financials move 100% in a matter of hours.”
And he goes on to say, “In fact, I hope you’ll replay the soundbite because if the government relaxes mark-to-market accounting a number of banks stocks will be unbelievable values at these levels.”
But that's not all. Najarian thinks the move could not only light a fire under banks, but the entire market. “If that Reuters report above is right there’s a very good chance the entire market will get a big lift.” more...
On that date, a House financial services subcommittee plans a hearing on mark-to-market accounting rules, which have been blamed for forcing banks to report billions of dollars in write-downs.
The catalyst involves mark-to-market accounting; which has been blamed for forcing banks to record billions of dollars in writedowns.
According to Reuters, a U.S. House Financial Services subcommittee is expected to hold a hearing on mark-to-market accounting rules as soon as March 12. The SEC's chief accountant and the chairman of the Financial Accounting Standards Board, will be asked to testify, the report said.
If that meeting results in the government relaxing mark-to-market rules, Najarian thinks the stock market could explode.
He says, “if the government relaxes mark-to-market for 12 to 18 months you could see financials move 100% in a matter of hours.”
And he goes on to say, “In fact, I hope you’ll replay the soundbite because if the government relaxes mark-to-market accounting a number of banks stocks will be unbelievable values at these levels.”
But that's not all. Najarian thinks the move could not only light a fire under banks, but the entire market. “If that Reuters report above is right there’s a very good chance the entire market will get a big lift.” more...
Coal News
Indonesia coal output seen 260 mln T in 2009 trade
NEW DELHI, Indonesia's coal output is expected to be 250 million to 260 million tonnes this year with domestic demand seen at 68 million tonnes, the head of a mining body said on Wednesday. Jeffrey Mulyono, chairman of Indonesian Coal Mining Association, also said global coal prices were "normal" now and demand was unlikely to drop significantly. "Of course psychologically it may seem that energy demand will decrease. But in reality it is not so much," he said.
China Coal-Prices little changed despite plunge abroad
SHANGHAI, China's spot coal prices were little changed from a week earlier, despite the sharp fall in the international market, and demand for coal remains sluggish. Prices of thermal coal in Newcastle, Australia, a benchmark for Asia, dropped to the lowest level in nearly 20 months, to below $65 per tonne, according to globalCOAL. But the falling prices are unlikely to boost China's coal imports, as the domestic demand, as well as spot prices, remain weak, industry sources said.
S.Korea's LG Int'l Corp enters Canada coal mine JV
SEOUL, South Korean trading house LG International Corp (001120.KS) said on Wednesday it had set up a joint venture with a Canadian energy firm and a Japanese trading firm to develop a coal mine in Canada. The $11 million Comox Joint Venture with Canada's Compliance Energy Corp (CEC.V) and Japan's Itochu (8001.T) was set up to enter the Raven coal project in Canada, it said.
China's Datang says breakeven coal price 400 yuan
BEIJING, China Datang Corp, the parent of Datang International Power (0991.HK) (601991.SS), can break even when coal prices are about 400 yuan ($58.46) per tonne, general manager Zhai Ruoyu said on Wednesday. "We can solve the problem of losses if coal prices fall to around 400 yuan per tonne," he told reporters in Beijing.
Richards Bay Coal Exports Increased 2.4% in February
(Bloomberg) -- South Africa’s Richards Bay Coal Terminal, the world’s largest coal-export facility, shipped 2.4 percent more coal in February than in the same month a year earlier. The terminal on South Africa’s northeast coast shipped 5.2 million metric tons of the fuel, compared with 5.08 million tons a year earlier and 4.12 million tons in January, the terminal said in an e-mailed response to questions today.
NEW DELHI, Indonesia's coal output is expected to be 250 million to 260 million tonnes this year with domestic demand seen at 68 million tonnes, the head of a mining body said on Wednesday. Jeffrey Mulyono, chairman of Indonesian Coal Mining Association, also said global coal prices were "normal" now and demand was unlikely to drop significantly. "Of course psychologically it may seem that energy demand will decrease. But in reality it is not so much," he said.
China Coal-Prices little changed despite plunge abroad
SHANGHAI, China's spot coal prices were little changed from a week earlier, despite the sharp fall in the international market, and demand for coal remains sluggish. Prices of thermal coal in Newcastle, Australia, a benchmark for Asia, dropped to the lowest level in nearly 20 months, to below $65 per tonne, according to globalCOAL. But the falling prices are unlikely to boost China's coal imports, as the domestic demand, as well as spot prices, remain weak, industry sources said.
S.Korea's LG Int'l Corp enters Canada coal mine JV
SEOUL, South Korean trading house LG International Corp (001120.KS) said on Wednesday it had set up a joint venture with a Canadian energy firm and a Japanese trading firm to develop a coal mine in Canada. The $11 million Comox Joint Venture with Canada's Compliance Energy Corp (CEC.V) and Japan's Itochu (8001.T) was set up to enter the Raven coal project in Canada, it said.
China's Datang says breakeven coal price 400 yuan
BEIJING, China Datang Corp, the parent of Datang International Power (0991.HK) (601991.SS), can break even when coal prices are about 400 yuan ($58.46) per tonne, general manager Zhai Ruoyu said on Wednesday. "We can solve the problem of losses if coal prices fall to around 400 yuan per tonne," he told reporters in Beijing.
Richards Bay Coal Exports Increased 2.4% in February
(Bloomberg) -- South Africa’s Richards Bay Coal Terminal, the world’s largest coal-export facility, shipped 2.4 percent more coal in February than in the same month a year earlier. The terminal on South Africa’s northeast coast shipped 5.2 million metric tons of the fuel, compared with 5.08 million tons a year earlier and 4.12 million tons in January, the terminal said in an e-mailed response to questions today.
ANALYSIS-Coal mines attract cash-flush bargain hunters
ANALYSIS-Coal mines attract cash-flush bargain hunters
LONDON/HONG KONG, March 5 (Reuters) - Coal mines are at their most affordable for years but only a few cash-flush or state-backed buyers will be able to seize the opportunity.
The commodities boom driven by Chinese and Indian demand pushed coal and mine prices to record highs in 2008. Since then coal prices have fallen by 60 pct but analysts expect the next commodities boom in 3-5 years time will see an even sharper rise than in 2008. Buyers complained last year that sellers were over-valuing their assets by up to 50 pct but some still paid the premium.
"Q2, Q3 this year would be a very good time to buy a mine if you're looking to buy distressed coal assets. Even more so for thermal coal than coking coal," said Jim Lennon, executive director of commodities and mining research at Macquarie Bank.
"There would be strong interest even from the big miners in buying coal mines which are generating cash, have large reserves, close to ports with good logistics. But everybody is trying to conserve cash now," said a senior executive at a large mining house. "Raising funds is the rub. There are a lot of non-cash offers."
Xstrata Plc's $5.9 billion rights issue, approved on March 2, is a clear example of mining groups' drive to pay off debt, mining house sources said.
CHINA HAS THE CASH
Unlike the international listed miners, the Chinese and Indian buyers such as China's biggest coal miner Shenhua Energy (1088.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) an China Datang Corp (0991.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) are driven primarily by a long-term need to secure raw materials supply. Many of them are state-backed and have cash to spend rather than shareholders to placate. They often secure financing on political grounds. Hong Kong-based bankers say they are matching companies with balance sheet issues with cashed-up buyers.
Indian state entities such as Coal India have been seeking mines in Indonesia, Australia and South Africa for years. State utilities, Independent Power Producers (IPPs) planning import-fuelled so-called Ultra Mega Power Plants and Indian traders have also sought stakes in overseas mines.
India will import around 51 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2009 mostly from Indonesia, up from 42 million in 2006. This will continue to rise over the next decade as demand grows. "Indonesia is still wall-to-wall with Indian companies trying to buy smaller coal mines here," a senior Indonesian coal producing source said.
LONDON/HONG KONG, March 5 (Reuters) - Coal mines are at their most affordable for years but only a few cash-flush or state-backed buyers will be able to seize the opportunity.
The commodities boom driven by Chinese and Indian demand pushed coal and mine prices to record highs in 2008. Since then coal prices have fallen by 60 pct but analysts expect the next commodities boom in 3-5 years time will see an even sharper rise than in 2008. Buyers complained last year that sellers were over-valuing their assets by up to 50 pct but some still paid the premium.
"Q2, Q3 this year would be a very good time to buy a mine if you're looking to buy distressed coal assets. Even more so for thermal coal than coking coal," said Jim Lennon, executive director of commodities and mining research at Macquarie Bank.
"There would be strong interest even from the big miners in buying coal mines which are generating cash, have large reserves, close to ports with good logistics. But everybody is trying to conserve cash now," said a senior executive at a large mining house. "Raising funds is the rub. There are a lot of non-cash offers."
Xstrata Plc's $5.9 billion rights issue, approved on March 2, is a clear example of mining groups' drive to pay off debt, mining house sources said.
CHINA HAS THE CASH
Unlike the international listed miners, the Chinese and Indian buyers such as China's biggest coal miner Shenhua Energy (1088.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) an China Datang Corp (0991.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) are driven primarily by a long-term need to secure raw materials supply. Many of them are state-backed and have cash to spend rather than shareholders to placate. They often secure financing on political grounds. Hong Kong-based bankers say they are matching companies with balance sheet issues with cashed-up buyers.
Indian state entities such as Coal India have been seeking mines in Indonesia, Australia and South Africa for years. State utilities, Independent Power Producers (IPPs) planning import-fuelled so-called Ultra Mega Power Plants and Indian traders have also sought stakes in overseas mines.
India will import around 51 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2009 mostly from Indonesia, up from 42 million in 2006. This will continue to rise over the next decade as demand grows. "Indonesia is still wall-to-wall with Indian companies trying to buy smaller coal mines here," a senior Indonesian coal producing source said.
Indonesia's Bayan sees 2009 coal output up 56 pct
Indonesia's Bayan sees 2009 coal output up 56 pct
JAKARTA, March 6 (Reuters) - Indonesian coal miner, PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN.JK), expects its coal production to increase by 56 percent this year on an expansion in its coal mines, the company said in its statement.
Bayan, Indonesia's eighth-largest coal producer, plans to produce 9.5 million tonnes of coal this year, up from an estimated 6.1 million tonnes in 2008, it said. The increased production would come from its Firman Ketaun Perkasa mine in East Kalimantan and continued expansion in other mines including PT Wahana Baratama and PT Perkasa Inakerta, it said.
The firm expects to sell 10 million tonnes of coal this year, up from 6.7 million tonnes in 2008. It said that demand remained strong and that all coal sales volumes were fully committed. "Demand remains strong especially from Europe, Japan, Taiwan and Korea. Power projects in the Asian region continue to expand and an increasing number will come on line in 2009-2011," it said.
Despite higher production, the firm forecast average selling prices between $60-$65 a tonne in 2009, down from $74.7 a tonne in 2008 in line with weakened global coal prices. Prices of power-station coal from Australia, a benchmark for Asia, have fallen below $63, the lowest in nearly 21 months, from a record peak of $201 a tonne in July last year.
With higher coal production, the company expects revenue to reach 6-6.5 trillion rupiah ($500.2 million) this year, up from 4.5-5 trillion rupiah in 2008. ($1=11995 Rupiah) Soure: Reuters (6 Mar 2009)
Bloomberg Copper Rises for Second Straight Week on China’s Demand Outlook
March 6 (Bloomberg) -- Copper prices rose, capping the second straight weekly gain, on renewed optimism that demand will climb in China, the world’s biggest metal user.
Zhou Xiaochuan, the head of China’s central bank, pledged fast and forceful policies to restore confidence and said he saw “signs of stabilization and recovery” in the world’s third- biggest economy. Copper jumped 9.8 percent this week on speculation that government spending will help boost economic expansion in China and spur metal demand.
“China served up a fresh dose of optimism by saying its economy was recovering and promising more swift action to absorb the shock of the global financial crisis,” Alex Heath, the head of industrial metals trading at RBC Capital Markets in London, said in a report.
Copper futures for May delivery rose 3.55 cents, or 2.1 percent, to $1.689 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, The metal gained 7.4 percent last week and is up 20 percent this year.
China is ready to buy copper and other industrial metals for reserves, Reuters reported, citing government-owned trading company China Minmetals Corp. The country’s refined-copper imports may reach 2 million metric tons this year as the State Reserve Bureau adds to inventories, Macquarie Group Ltd. forecast this week. That was up from 1.4 million tons last year, the bank said.
“The view tends to be that there could be the start of restocking in China,” said Bart Melek, a commodity strategist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. “There are some hopeful signs for copper.” more...
Zhou Xiaochuan, the head of China’s central bank, pledged fast and forceful policies to restore confidence and said he saw “signs of stabilization and recovery” in the world’s third- biggest economy. Copper jumped 9.8 percent this week on speculation that government spending will help boost economic expansion in China and spur metal demand.
“China served up a fresh dose of optimism by saying its economy was recovering and promising more swift action to absorb the shock of the global financial crisis,” Alex Heath, the head of industrial metals trading at RBC Capital Markets in London, said in a report.
Copper futures for May delivery rose 3.55 cents, or 2.1 percent, to $1.689 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, The metal gained 7.4 percent last week and is up 20 percent this year.
China is ready to buy copper and other industrial metals for reserves, Reuters reported, citing government-owned trading company China Minmetals Corp. The country’s refined-copper imports may reach 2 million metric tons this year as the State Reserve Bureau adds to inventories, Macquarie Group Ltd. forecast this week. That was up from 1.4 million tons last year, the bank said.
“The view tends to be that there could be the start of restocking in China,” said Bart Melek, a commodity strategist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. “There are some hopeful signs for copper.” more...
Crude palm oil futures up as players await good news
Crude palm oil (CPO) futures prices on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed higher yesterday as market players expect good news from a palm oil conference next week, a dealer said.
The Palm & Lauric Oil Conference and Exhibition will see industry experts give their views on commodity prices, he said. “Buyers are waiting for market-moving news from the conference scheduled to start next Wednesday,” the dealer added. He added that the uptrend today was also in line with the soyoil market and steady crude oil prices.
At the close of trading, March 2009 added RM70 to settle at RM2,070 pertonne and April 2009 rose by RM45 to RM1,995 per tonne. May 2009 increased by RM34 to settle at RM1,940 per tonne while June 2009 appreciated by RM37 to close at RM1,916 per tonne.
The day’s volume ended slightly lower at 13,716 lots compared to 13,843 lots yesterday while open interests dropped to 87,358 contracts from 89,226 contracts previously. On the physical market, March South stood at RM2,070 per tonne, higher from the RM2,000 recorded on Thurday.
Bloomberg Oil Rises to 5-Week High as Dollar’s Drop Bolsters Commodities
March 6 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose to a five-week high as the U.S. dollar weakened against the euro, bolstering the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.
Oil climbed 4.4 percent and the dollar weakened versus the euro after unemployment advanced to the highest in 25 years in the U.S., the world’s biggest energy user. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will consider a fourth production cut when ministers meet on March 15.
“Oil is up because the unemployment number is causing the dollar pain,” said Phil Flynn, a senior trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. “This rally probably won’t last for long. As bad as things are here, I imagine the data from Europe and elsewhere will be worse, which will strengthen the dollar.”
Crude oil for April delivery rose $1.91 to $45.52 a barrel at 2:57 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since Jan. 26. Prices climbed 1.7 percent this week and are up 2.1 percent so far this year.
Gasoline futures for April delivery increased 1.95 cents, or 1.5 percent, to end the session at $1.3322 a gallon in New York. Heating oil for April delivery climbed 6.96 cents, or 6 percent, to settle at $1.2294, the biggest gain since Jan. 23. more...
ABN Amro Raises Palm Oil Forecast
Palm oil may average $650 a ton this year, 14 percent higher than a November estimate, as demand from China and India help pare near-record stockpiles of the world’s cheapest vegetable oil, ABN Amro Asia Securities (Singapore) said.
The commodity may fetch $720 a ton next year, and $750 in 2011, Nirgunan Tiruchelvam, assistant director at ABN Amro Asia in Singapore, wrote in a report. Prices have averaged 1,874 ringgit ($504) a ton since January in Malaysia.
“Core demand should be resilient in China and India,” he said. The nations are the biggest consumers of edible oils.
Malaysian sales to China in January-February totaled 530,350 tons, up 43 percent from a year ago, while exports to India more than tripled to 292,790 tons in the period, according to Societe Generale de Surveillance. China said last month it would import a record 5.3 million tons of palm oil this year.
Oil palms in Malaysia and Indonesia, the top producers, are stressed from record output in 2008, “weakening productivity,” Tiruchelvam said.
May-delivery palm oil on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose for a third day today, gaining 1.8 percent to 1,940 ringgit ($522) a ton. Futures have gained 14 percent since January.
Sime Darby Bhd., the world’s largest plantation company, may benefit the most from higher prices because of an increase in the company’s productivity, he said. ABN has a “buy” recommendation on the shares, which have halved in the past year to 5.5 ringgit. The stock may reach 7.84 ringgit in the next year, ABN said.
ABN upgraded IOI Corp., Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd. and PT Astra Agro Lestari of Indonesia to “buy” from “sell.”
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. this week asked investors to take profits on plantation companies’ shares as palm oil prices may drop as much as 15 percent in the next three to six months.
Bloomberg U.S. Stocks Gain as Oil Helps Dow Jump 150 Points in 35 Minutes
March 6 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose, led by banks and energy shares, as forecasts that General Electric Co. has enough capital and oil’s surge sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average up more than 150 points in the final 35 minutes of trading.
GE jumped 6 percent, halting a five-day retreat, as analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. and Merrill Lynch & Co. said the finance unit has adequate funding. Chevron Corp. and Exxon Mobil Corp. advanced 2.9 percent as oil reached $46.30 a barrel. The Dow erased a 124-point drop that followed a morning rally spurred by a slower rate of job cuts in February.
“Every day you come in and get beaten down,” said Michael Nasto, the senior trader at U.S. Global Investors Inc., which manages $2 billion in San Antonio. “It’s just been brutal. The fact that we ended on a positive note, I’ll take it.”
The Dow average increased 32.50 points, or 0.5 percent, to 6,626.94 at 4 p.m. in New York after sinking as low as 6,469.95. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.1 percent to 683.38, rebounding from a 2.3 percent decline.
For the week, the Dow average lost 6.2 percent, matching its worst retreat since October, while the S&P 500’s 7 percent drop was the steepest in 14 weeks. GE slid 17 percent on concern losses are growing at its finance unit, which makes up about 37 percent of its revenue, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. more...
Jumat, 06 Maret 2009
Operasikan Pembangkit Sendiri, PTBA Hemat US$ 3 Juta/Tahun
Jakarta - PT Perusahaan Tambang Batubara Tbk (PTBA) berharap bisa melakukan efisiensi sebesar US$ 3 juta per tahun setelah pembangkit listrik tenaga uap (PLTU) perseroan beroperasi. PLTU yang dibangun PTBA berkapasitas 3x10 MW.
Demikian dikemukakan oleh Direktur Utama PTBA Sukrisno di Kantor Kementerian Negara Badan Usaha Milik Negara (BUMN), Gedung Garuda, Jalan Medan Merdeka Selatan, Jakarta, Jumat (6/3/2009). "Jadi kalau pakai pembangkit sendiri menghemat satu tahun kira-kira US$ 3 juta," katanya.
Pembangkit tersebut rencanya akan mulai dibangun bulan April 2009 dan diharapkan selesai April 2011. Lokasi pembangunan pembangkit tersebut adalah di Tanjung Enim, Sumatera Selatan, karena selama ini perusahaan plat merah tersebut masih disuplai sebanyak 23 MW oleh PLN di tempat tersebut. "Diharapkan dengan pembuatan pembangkit sendiri, jatah PTBA yang 23 MW itu bisa diberikan kepada masyarakat," ujarnya.
Ia mengatakan, dana yang akan digunakan dalam pembangunan PLTU senilai US$ 41 juta tersebut akan diambil seluruhnya dari kas internal BUMN tambang itu. Hingga saat ini, kas internal yang dimiliki perseroan mencapai Rp 3 triliun.(ang/lih)
Reuters Asia stocks slide on Wall St woes, fall limited
HONG KONG (Reuters) - Asia stocks slid on Friday after a warning from General Motors' (GM.N) that it may need to file for bankruptcy drove Wall Street shares to 12-year lows and highlighted the severe troubles of major U.S. companies and banks.
But most Asian equity markets held up better than their counterparts in the United States and Europe, thanks partly to hopes that China will boost its planned $585 billion in stimulus spending to help offset the damage from collapsing exports.
China's central bank chief, Zhou Xiaochuan, said on Friday that he sees signs of the economy recovering and officials would err on the side of acting sooner rather than later to revive growth in the world's third largest economy.
The dollar retreated and oil prices climbed in a slight reversal of Thursday's moves sparked by the stock market slide, while Japan's stock market woes pushed investors into safe-haven government bonds.
The data follows the European Central Bank and Bank of England chopping interest rates to record lows on Thursday. The BoE went a step further, saying it will print money to buy 75 billion pounds worth of government bonds as central banks try to limit the damage from the financial crisis and sharpest recession in decades.
But Merrill Lynch analysts said in a research note that there were several signs that Asia's economies were starting to stabilize, including a recovery in Chinese manufacturing and Korean exports to China.
Highlighting the see-saw nature of Asia markets, the South Korean won -- the most battered of regional currencies -- recovered to post slight gains on the day after initially falling to an 11-year low. more...
But most Asian equity markets held up better than their counterparts in the United States and Europe, thanks partly to hopes that China will boost its planned $585 billion in stimulus spending to help offset the damage from collapsing exports.
China's central bank chief, Zhou Xiaochuan, said on Friday that he sees signs of the economy recovering and officials would err on the side of acting sooner rather than later to revive growth in the world's third largest economy.
The dollar retreated and oil prices climbed in a slight reversal of Thursday's moves sparked by the stock market slide, while Japan's stock market woes pushed investors into safe-haven government bonds.
The data follows the European Central Bank and Bank of England chopping interest rates to record lows on Thursday. The BoE went a step further, saying it will print money to buy 75 billion pounds worth of government bonds as central banks try to limit the damage from the financial crisis and sharpest recession in decades.
But Merrill Lynch analysts said in a research note that there were several signs that Asia's economies were starting to stabilize, including a recovery in Chinese manufacturing and Korean exports to China.
Highlighting the see-saw nature of Asia markets, the South Korean won -- the most battered of regional currencies -- recovered to post slight gains on the day after initially falling to an 11-year low. more...
CNBC China's Central Bank Sees Signs of Recovery
China sees signs of the economy recovering and must be ready to act sooner rather than later to revive growth, the central bank governor said on Friday.
"The policies (to date) have achieved significant results," Zhou Xiaochuan told a news conference on the sidelines of the National People's Congress, the largely ceremonial parliament.
"We are also seeing that the economic figures are stabilising and recovering, which demonstrates that the policies have begun to show an impact.
"In particular, we have to prevent being too slow-handed or light-handed in responding. We must err on the side of being quick and decisive."
Zhou's comments came a day after Premier Wen Jiabao said China would ramp up deficit spending this year to hit its all-important 8 percent growth target.
Recovery Trend?
Recent data has suggested the world's third-largest economy may be on the cusp of a recovery.
New domestic-currency bank loans shot up to a record 1.6 trillion yuan in January. Liu Mingkang, the top banking regulator, said that they probably exceeded 800 billion yuan in February, still a very high figure.
Two surveys of Chinese manufacturing have also rebounded, with the official purchasing managers' index reaching 49 in February, just shy of a reading of 50, which marks the difference between contraction and expansion.
Output and new orders both returned to mild growth after shrinking for four months, the official PMI report showed. But economists cautioned it was too early to tell if the broader economy was improving or if the pick-up in demand could be sustained. more...
Lautandhana from Daily Update
China Batal Tambah Dana Stimulus, Rating JP Morgan Terancam Dipangkas. Indeks bursa AS kembali tersungkur. Bursa Eropa kemabli terperosok dengan indeks DJ Euro Stoxx melemah 4,6% dan FTSE melemah 3,1%.Bursa Asia pagi ini terpantau bergerak negatif, Nikkei melemah 2,8%, Kospi turun 1%, St Times melemah 0,9%, KLCI turun 0,6%.
Bursa Indonesia hari ini kembali berpotensi mengalami tekanan akibat sentimen negatif bursa regional. Namun pelemahan pada saham-sham fundamental dapat dimanfaatkan untuk buy on weakness seperti ITMG, PTBA, UNTR, PGAS
Indika (INDY) negosiasi proyek US$700 juta Pinjaman US$500 juta akan dicairkan
PT Indika Energy Tbk melalui anak usahanya, PT Tripatra Engineering sedang bernegosiasi untuk meraih sejumlah proyek senilai US$700 juta. Proyek tersebut meliputi pengerjaan mechanical engineering di sejumlah perusahaan, terutama untuk proyek migas.
Mitra Rajasa (MIRA) cari pinjaman US$31,5 juta
PT Mitra Rajasa Tbk mencari pendanaan eksternal senilai US$31,5 juta guna memenuhi belanja modal perseroan tahun ini, yaitu US$45 juta. perseroan mengalokasikan US$20 juta guna perawatan rig anak perusahaan Mitra Rajasa, yaitu PT Apexindo Pratama Duta Tbk.
Bayan (BYAN) incar laba Rp1,25 triliun
PT Bayan Resources Tbk membidik kenaikan EBITDA hingga sebesar 213% menjadi Rp1 triliun-Rp1,25 triliun pada tahun ini dari estimasi tahun lalu, seiring dengan peningkatan produksi dan harga jual batu bara.
PTBA tetapkan kontrak
PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk menandatangani kontrak engineering, procurement & construction (EPC) dengan Consortium of China Overseas dan PT Welles Energi Nusantara untuk pembangunan PLTU berkapasitas 3x10 MW yang berlokasi di Tanjung Enim dengan nilai kontrak US$41,4 juta.
Bursa Indonesia hari ini kembali berpotensi mengalami tekanan akibat sentimen negatif bursa regional. Namun pelemahan pada saham-sham fundamental dapat dimanfaatkan untuk buy on weakness seperti ITMG, PTBA, UNTR, PGAS
Indika (INDY) negosiasi proyek US$700 juta Pinjaman US$500 juta akan dicairkan
PT Indika Energy Tbk melalui anak usahanya, PT Tripatra Engineering sedang bernegosiasi untuk meraih sejumlah proyek senilai US$700 juta. Proyek tersebut meliputi pengerjaan mechanical engineering di sejumlah perusahaan, terutama untuk proyek migas.
Mitra Rajasa (MIRA) cari pinjaman US$31,5 juta
PT Mitra Rajasa Tbk mencari pendanaan eksternal senilai US$31,5 juta guna memenuhi belanja modal perseroan tahun ini, yaitu US$45 juta. perseroan mengalokasikan US$20 juta guna perawatan rig anak perusahaan Mitra Rajasa, yaitu PT Apexindo Pratama Duta Tbk.
Bayan (BYAN) incar laba Rp1,25 triliun
PT Bayan Resources Tbk membidik kenaikan EBITDA hingga sebesar 213% menjadi Rp1 triliun-Rp1,25 triliun pada tahun ini dari estimasi tahun lalu, seiring dengan peningkatan produksi dan harga jual batu bara.
PTBA tetapkan kontrak
PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk menandatangani kontrak engineering, procurement & construction (EPC) dengan Consortium of China Overseas dan PT Welles Energi Nusantara untuk pembangunan PLTU berkapasitas 3x10 MW yang berlokasi di Tanjung Enim dengan nilai kontrak US$41,4 juta.
Mandiri Sekuritas IndoTambang: FY08 earnings above our and consensus estimates. (ITMG, Rp9,650, Buy, TP: Rp15,130)
Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG) FY08 earnings rose by 321.1% yoy to US$235mn, outpacing ours (+10.3%) and consensus estimates (+16.5%). FY08 revenue went up to US$1.3bn (+70.6% yoy), below our expectation but in-line with consensus estimates. FY08 coal sales were 17.7mn tons (- 2.2% yoy), above our expectation, with average selling price (ASP) of US$74/ton (+74.7% yoy), below expectation. On qoq basis, 4Q08 coal sales were 4.8mn tons (+8.2% qoq) which result in US$420mn revenue and US$105mn net profit.
In FY09F, ITMG plans to beef up coal output to 20.5mn tons (+15.8% yoy) with 57% fixed price, 14% based on index, 14% under negotiation, and the remaining 15% still unpriced. FY09F capital expenditure is planned at US$126mn. Meanwhile, we estimated ITMG FY09F coal output at 17mn tons with ASP of US$63/ton, translating into FY09F earnings of US$231mn (-1.7% yoy). Based on our estimates, ITMG is trading at PER09F of 4.0x.
In FY09F, ITMG plans to beef up coal output to 20.5mn tons (+15.8% yoy) with 57% fixed price, 14% based on index, 14% under negotiation, and the remaining 15% still unpriced. FY09F capital expenditure is planned at US$126mn. Meanwhile, we estimated ITMG FY09F coal output at 17mn tons with ASP of US$63/ton, translating into FY09F earnings of US$231mn (-1.7% yoy). Based on our estimates, ITMG is trading at PER09F of 4.0x.
Mandiri Sekuritas Indika Energy: negotiation in process for US$700mn new engineering contracts (INDY, Rp1,550, Buy TP: Rp2,180)
Indika Energy is currently in the process of negotiating some US$700mn
worth of new engineering contracts via its Tripatra Engineering group.
This is part of the close to US$2bn worth of bidding activities being
conducted by Indika this year. We consider this to be vital for Indika
since its Tripatra order book is running thin (US$184mn) and is expected
to be exhausted by year end.
Aside from this, Indika and its partners (Marubeni, Komipo, Samtan) are
also working out a deal to secure some US$500mn of syndicated loans to
fund the US$821mn Cirebon Electric Power Project, wherein Indika
Energy has 20% stake. So far, the company has invested a total of
US$35.2mn in the project as of Jan09. Kideco, Indika’s coal unit is set to
be one of the coal suppliers of this 660MW power plant project, slated
for completion in 2011.
We maintain Buy on the stock, which currently trades at PER09x of 5.5x
worth of new engineering contracts via its Tripatra Engineering group.
This is part of the close to US$2bn worth of bidding activities being
conducted by Indika this year. We consider this to be vital for Indika
since its Tripatra order book is running thin (US$184mn) and is expected
to be exhausted by year end.
Aside from this, Indika and its partners (Marubeni, Komipo, Samtan) are
also working out a deal to secure some US$500mn of syndicated loans to
fund the US$821mn Cirebon Electric Power Project, wherein Indika
Energy has 20% stake. So far, the company has invested a total of
US$35.2mn in the project as of Jan09. Kideco, Indika’s coal unit is set to
be one of the coal suppliers of this 660MW power plant project, slated
for completion in 2011.
We maintain Buy on the stock, which currently trades at PER09x of 5.5x
Trimegah HEXA A Kick from The Mining Segment
HEXA (Rp760 - BUY) : A Kick from The Mining Segment
Un-audited FY08 result indicate revenue and net profit of Rp2.8tr and Rp227.0bn, respectively. Overall, these figures are relatively inline with our expectation.
KPC awarded HEXA a US$130m order for this year's delivery. Meanwhile, Newmont placed a US$15.5m order for plus a 12-year maintenance contract worth US$51.0m. From Thiess, HEXA received a US$30.0m order.
Incorporating the above transactions as well as new FX assumption of Rp11,308/US$, we see a 46.0% and 123.7% upside risk in our FY09 net profit to Rp269.4bn while DCF TP is pointing to a 42.6% upgrade to Rp1,925.
Given unfavorable current market condition, we conservatively maintain our TP at Rp1,350. Based from the above simulated earnings, HEXA are trading at a very teasing FY09 P/E of 2.4x and EV/EBITDA of 1.4x with dividend yield of 14.8%. BUY call maintained.
Un-audited FY08 result indicate revenue and net profit of Rp2.8tr and Rp227.0bn, respectively. Overall, these figures are relatively inline with our expectation.
KPC awarded HEXA a US$130m order for this year's delivery. Meanwhile, Newmont placed a US$15.5m order for plus a 12-year maintenance contract worth US$51.0m. From Thiess, HEXA received a US$30.0m order.
Incorporating the above transactions as well as new FX assumption of Rp11,308/US$, we see a 46.0% and 123.7% upside risk in our FY09 net profit to Rp269.4bn while DCF TP is pointing to a 42.6% upgrade to Rp1,925.
Given unfavorable current market condition, we conservatively maintain our TP at Rp1,350. Based from the above simulated earnings, HEXA are trading at a very teasing FY09 P/E of 2.4x and EV/EBITDA of 1.4x with dividend yield of 14.8%. BUY call maintained.
DBS Bukit Asam - To build 3x10MW coal-fired power plant in Tanjung Enim
Bukit Asam - To build 3x10MW coal-fired power plant in Tanjung Enim
(Buy; PTBA IJ; Rp7,050; TP Rp8,359)
Bukit Asam (PTBA) announced that the company has signed an EPC (Engineering, Procurement & Construction) contract with a joint operation contractors consisting of China Overseas and Weltes Energi Nusantara, to build a 3x10MW coal-fired power plant in Tanjung Enim with a contract value of US$41.4mn.
The purpose of this project is to supply the electrical needs of PTBA’s Tanjung Enim mine operations. At present, PTBA has to purchase electricity from the State Electricity Company (PLN). Electricity supplied by the power plant is expected to reduce electrical costs by c.US$3.3mn annually. The power plant is expected to be completed in 24 months time, and will commence operation in April 2011.
Credit Suisse Perusahaan Gas Negara - Confirmed gas distribution volumes to the power plant
Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS) has announced that total distribution sales volumes to Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), the state-owned power company (not listed), reached 200-210 MMcfd (million cubic feet per day). This is for the power plant in Muara Tawar, north Jakarta. The company is also preparing the connection for the additional 100MMcfd uninterruptible supply to PLN.
PLN in West Java has gas sales contracts with PGAS to the tune of 360MMcfd, and the remaining 60MMcfd is for Tanjung Prior’ power plant (also in North Jakarta) and Cilegon. PGAS had earlier indicated that total distribution reached around 700MMcfd.
We are confident that our FY09 distribution volumes target of 729MMcfd could easily be achieved. There is upside risk for this volumes target. PGAS has been guiding for 700-800MMcfd for 2009.
We still view the stock as a defensive play and expect strong cash flow from increasing distribution volumes. Our analysis shows that the downside risks have been priced in. Maintain OUTPERFORM.
CIMB Gas Delivery Up to Speed
Quick takes - Gas delivery up to speed - by Itphong Saengtubtim
(PGAS IJ / PGAS.JK, OUTPERFORM - Maintained, Rp1,880 - Tgt. Rp2,550, Utilities)
PGAS recently announced that its gas delivery to PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara's (PLN) power plant at Muara Tawar has reached an average of 200-210 million standard cubic feet (mmcfd). This achievement is in line with the company's schedule and our expectations. It is positive for PGAS as PLN's Muara Tawar power plant is the key growth driver of its gas sales volume this year. We are maintaining our sales volume forecast of 730mmcfd for this year (+25% yoy). Maintain Outperform for its strong earnings growth. PGAS's core earnings should increase by 48% in FY08 and another 50% in FY09 on the back of higher sales volume to power customers.
(PGAS IJ / PGAS.JK, OUTPERFORM - Maintained, Rp1,880 - Tgt. Rp2,550, Utilities)
PGAS recently announced that its gas delivery to PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara's (PLN) power plant at Muara Tawar has reached an average of 200-210 million standard cubic feet (mmcfd). This achievement is in line with the company's schedule and our expectations. It is positive for PGAS as PLN's Muara Tawar power plant is the key growth driver of its gas sales volume this year. We are maintaining our sales volume forecast of 730mmcfd for this year (+25% yoy). Maintain Outperform for its strong earnings growth. PGAS's core earnings should increase by 48% in FY08 and another 50% in FY09 on the back of higher sales volume to power customers.
Associated Press Final Glance: Coal companies
Shares of some top coal companies were down at the close of trading:
Arch Coal fell $.54 or 4.1 percent, to $12.69.
Consol Energy fell $.79 or 3.0 percent, to $25.53.
Massey Energy fell $.66 or 5.9 percent, to $10.49.
Peabody Energy fell $.69 or 3.0 percent, to $22.60.
Arch Coal fell $.54 or 4.1 percent, to $12.69.
Consol Energy fell $.79 or 3.0 percent, to $25.53.
Massey Energy fell $.66 or 5.9 percent, to $10.49.
Peabody Energy fell $.69 or 3.0 percent, to $22.60.
Delisting Apexindo Disetujui, Tender Offer di Harga Rp 2.875
Jakarta - PT Apexindo Pratama Duta Tbk (APEX) memastikan akan menggelar tender offer atas saham publik yang tersisa pada triwulan II-2009. RUPSLB telah menyetujui agenda penghapusan pencatatan saham (delisting) APEX.
"Pemegang saham menginginkan tender offer saham publik bisa selesai sebelum pertengahan dua, pada triwulan II-2009," ujar Corporate Secretary APEX, Ade Satari di Graha Niaga, Jl Jend Sudirman, Jakarta, Kamis (5/3/2009).
Dalam RUPS Luar Biasa yang baru saja selesai dilaksanakan, pemegang saham telah menyetujui agenda delisting. Pemegang saham juga mengesahkan penunjukan PT Zodiac Perintis Penilai untuk keperluan tender offer.
"Total saham yang di tender offer kira-kira sebanyak 0,25% dari seluruh saham APEX yang sebanyak 2,6 miliar di harga Rp 2.875 per saham," ujar Ade.
Pasca akuisisi PT Mitra Rajasa Tbk (MIRA), saham publik yang tersisa sebanyak 0,25%. Mengacu pada jumlah saham APEX, maka jumlah saham yang akan ditender offer akan sekitar 6,5 juta saham atau total nilainya sebesar Rp 18,687 miliar. more...
Palm oil stockpiles expected to drop below 1.8m tonnes
Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, the world’s second largest grower, are expected to drop to below 1.8 million tonnes in February 2009, but palm oil prices remain stable, Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Datuk Peter Chin Fah Kui said.
“Biologically, stockpiles of this commodity will decline in February as palm is producing less. Also, there is only 28 days in February,” he told reporters after witnessing the signing of a licence and technical agreement between OCNED Water Technology Sdn Bhd and Japan’s Sumitomo Heavy Industries Environment Co Ltd (SHI-EV) in Petaling Jaya yesterday.
Analysts are predicting that palm oil stockpiles may decline in February as production falls.
They said palm oil reserves may have dropped to as low as 1.7 million tonnes in February from 1.83 million tonnes in the previous month.
Output will also likely fall by as much as 10 per cent from 1.3 million tonnes produced in January.
Nevertheless, planters would still gain handsome profit from the current price of RM1,800 per tonne, said Chin.
“If the current price is at RM1,800 to RM1,900 per tonne, those planters of a matured farm would still make money,” he added.
Chin also urged palm oil millers to implement biogas trapping technology in order to reduce methane emission, which contributes towards global warning.
There are currently 406 palm oil millers in the country, but most are too slow in implementing or investing new technology or system that are environment-friendly.
“It is important for them to invest in new technology that are eco-friendly so that their products would continue to enjoy market access to the European and US markets, which are currently imposing various directives to ensure the products that they import are of certain standards, particularly those concerning environment,” he said.
He lauded the effort taken by OCNED and SHI-EV in trying to develop a biogas trapping technology in the palm oil industry is Malaysia.
“Biologically, stockpiles of this commodity will decline in February as palm is producing less. Also, there is only 28 days in February,” he told reporters after witnessing the signing of a licence and technical agreement between OCNED Water Technology Sdn Bhd and Japan’s Sumitomo Heavy Industries Environment Co Ltd (SHI-EV) in Petaling Jaya yesterday.
Analysts are predicting that palm oil stockpiles may decline in February as production falls.
They said palm oil reserves may have dropped to as low as 1.7 million tonnes in February from 1.83 million tonnes in the previous month.
Output will also likely fall by as much as 10 per cent from 1.3 million tonnes produced in January.
Nevertheless, planters would still gain handsome profit from the current price of RM1,800 per tonne, said Chin.
“If the current price is at RM1,800 to RM1,900 per tonne, those planters of a matured farm would still make money,” he added.
Chin also urged palm oil millers to implement biogas trapping technology in order to reduce methane emission, which contributes towards global warning.
There are currently 406 palm oil millers in the country, but most are too slow in implementing or investing new technology or system that are environment-friendly.
“It is important for them to invest in new technology that are eco-friendly so that their products would continue to enjoy market access to the European and US markets, which are currently imposing various directives to ensure the products that they import are of certain standards, particularly those concerning environment,” he said.
He lauded the effort taken by OCNED and SHI-EV in trying to develop a biogas trapping technology in the palm oil industry is Malaysia.
PTBA Nego Pasokan Batubara ke PLN 2 Juta Ton per Tahun
Jakarta - Saat ini PT Bukit Asam tengah melakukan negosiasi dengan PT PLN Persero untuk pasokan batubara sebanyak 2 juta ton per tahun. Batubara sebanyak itu akan dipasok ke PLTU Tarahan dan PLTU Bukit Asam.
Demikian disampaikan Direktur Utama PTBA Soekrisno di sela-sela acara Pelantikan Pejabat Eselon I dan II di Departemen ESDM, Jakarta, Kamis
(5/3/2009).
"Kami masih nego dengan PLN untuk pasokan ke Tarahan dan Bukit Asam," ujarnya. Soekrisno menjelaskan untuk PLTU Tarahan pihaknya akan memasok 800 ribu ton per tahun, sementara untuk PLTU Bukit Asam sebanyak 1,2 juta ton per tahun. "Yang penting 1,2 juta ton untuk Bukit Asam dan 800 ribu ton untuk Tarahan. Kontraknya untuk 10 tahun," ungkap Soekrisno.
Menurut Soekrisno, satu masalah yang sedang dirundingkan saat ini adalah tentang harga. Namun ia berharap masalah tersebut sudah bisa selesai pada pertengahan Maret 2009. "Harga masih nego. Pada pertengahan Maret ini kami berharap sudah kesepakatan harga ada," jelasnya. Semua batubara yang akan dipasok PTBA akan diambil dari tambangnya yang ada di Tanjung Enim, Sumatera Selatan.
(epi/lih)
CNBC The Dow's Bearing — 6,000 and Under
Posted By: Daryl Guppy
Topics:Dow Jones Industrial Average | Stock Market | Personal Finance | Corporate News | Asia
Companies:Companies
February was a chilly month for U.S. equities. And March is looking even worse. It looks like a recession is the only thing roaring this month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 299.64 points, or 4.24% percent, to 6763.29, its lowest close since April 25, 1997, and the first close below 7,000 since May 1, 1997. We feel this warrants another look at the DJIA chart.
The most dangerous chart pattern in a bear market is the down sloping triangle triangle. This pattern is seen in the Dow Jones Index and it sets a downside target near 5,600. The rapid fall below 7,000 confirms this target objective.
This chart pattern includes a well defined support level near 7,800. Over the last five months the rally rebounds from support near 7,800 have developed a pattern of declining highs. The failure of the early 2009 January rally near 9,000 established a second calculation point for a new down sloping trend line. The first calculation point for the trend line was set by the rally peak near 9,600 in 2008 November.
A new downtrend line is drawn and this creates a down sloping triangle. In a bear market the strength of the pattern is increased. The first feature to measure with this pattern is the height of the triangle. The four day triangle base starts on 2008, October 7, with the drop from near 10,000 to 7,800. The triangle height is around 2,200 points.
Chart pattern analysis provides the most reliable analysis method in this type of market situation. Technical oscillators which measure sentiment in the market are stuck on extreme readings and provide little guidance about trend continuation.
Using chart pattern analysis, the downside target for the Dow Jones Index is near 5,600. This target is verified against historical support levels for the Dow. Historically there is a support level near 7,500 but this has been decisively broken.
The long term historical support level is a narrow trading band between 5,500 and 5,600. In a bear market it is the bottom of the trading band that is tested for support.
This combination of factors suggests there is a high probability the market will quickly fall towards support between 5,500 and 5,600. This is a fall of more than 50 percent from the peak of the Index in 2007, October at 14,198. This degree of fall is similar to the degree of fall in 1929 when the America market collapsed and developed the world depression.
The end of this triangle pattern develops near the end of 2009, April. There is a high probability the America market will develop a continuation of the downtrend with a slow move towards support near 5,600. The key feature will be the nature of any consolidation pattern that develops near 5,500 to 5,600.
Failure of genuine support, consolidation and rebound behavior near 5,500 to 5,600 will focus attention in the next support level between 3,700 and 4,000. These remain theoretical targets until the nature of consolidation activity near 5,500 and 5,600 is confirmed. After falls of this degree markets do not develop V-shaped recoveries. They lay down and rest in L-shaped trading consolidation band patterns. Typically these patterns prevail for between four to eight months and offer limited trading opportunities. They are accumulation patterns and investors watch the volume behavior associated with the rallies.
Stimulus Infrastruktur Rp 12,2 Triliun Berlaku per 18 Maret
Jakarta - Anggaran stimulus infrastruktur sebesar Rp 12,2 triliun dijalankan mulai 18 Maret 2009. Kementerian/Lembaga yang mendapatkan alokasi anggaran sudah menyiapkan dokumen-dokumen pelaksanaan proyek-proyek stimulus tersebut.
Hal ini dikatakan oleh Menteri Keuangan sekaligus Menko Perekonomian Sri Mulyani dalam jumpa pers di kantornya, Jalan Lapangan Banteng, Jakarta, Kamis malam (5/3/2009).
"Anggaran stimulus Rp 12,2 triliun itu butuh program kegiatan dan berbagai aktivitas yang dilakukan untuk menangani dampak krisis global ke dalam negeri," tuturnya.
Sri Mulyani mengatakan pemerintah berusaha secepat mungkin menyelesaikan prosedur pelaksanaan stimulus ini.
"Seluruh Kementerian/Lembaga akan sampaikan dokumennya dan 18 Maret akan selesai
sehingga bisa dilaksanakan, ini untuk infrastruktur atau aktivitas fisiknya,"
katanya. more...
Hal ini dikatakan oleh Menteri Keuangan sekaligus Menko Perekonomian Sri Mulyani dalam jumpa pers di kantornya, Jalan Lapangan Banteng, Jakarta, Kamis malam (5/3/2009).
"Anggaran stimulus Rp 12,2 triliun itu butuh program kegiatan dan berbagai aktivitas yang dilakukan untuk menangani dampak krisis global ke dalam negeri," tuturnya.
Sri Mulyani mengatakan pemerintah berusaha secepat mungkin menyelesaikan prosedur pelaksanaan stimulus ini.
"Seluruh Kementerian/Lembaga akan sampaikan dokumennya dan 18 Maret akan selesai
sehingga bisa dilaksanakan, ini untuk infrastruktur atau aktivitas fisiknya,"
katanya. more...
Crude palm oil futures make little headway on lack of leads
March 6, 2009 2:00 GMT+8
Crude palm oil futures traded slightly higher yesterday as investors waited for more leads, beyond taking positions on strong crude oil and the higher US soybean complex.
US soybean prices have received support in the last few days from a showdown between farmers and the government in Argentina, the world’s third-largest soy exporter.
Oil eased below US$45 yesterday, after surging nearly 9 per cent overnight on government data showing a surprise drop in US crude stocks, which could signal recovering demand in the world’s top energy consumer.
“External factors are encouraging but traders need fresh direction and the Bursa Malaysia Palm Oil Conference is one of the main reasons for holding back,” said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage.
The benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange settled up RM4 at RM1,906 (US$511.5) per tonne.
Exchange operator Bursa Malaysia holds its annual Palm Oil Conference from March 10-12 and will feature industry experts such as Dorab Mistry from Godrej International, LMC International head James Fry and Thomas Mielke of Oilworld.
Malaysia’s February palm oil stocks probably tumbled 8.6 per cent to 1.67 million tonnes, their lowest in 16 months, as output slowed further on floods in key growing regions, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.
Other traded contracts ranged between declines of RM5 to RM43 gains. Overall volume rose above 10,000 lots of 25 tonnes each to stand at 13,843 lots.
Bloomberg Copper Drops as China Indicates Stimulus Spending Won’t Climb
March 5 (Bloomberg) -- Copper futures fell for the first time in three days after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao indicated the government doesn’t need to increase stimulus spending to achieve its target for economic growth.
Collapsing exports have dragged China, the world’s biggest metals user, to its weakest growth in seven years. Yesterday, copper surged to the highest price since late November on speculation additional stimulus spending in China would boost demand for metals.
“There was no increase in the overall size of the stimulus package, something that may be disappointing the markets,” Edward Meir, an analyst at MF Global Ltd. in Darien, Connecticut, said in a report. more...
Collapsing exports have dragged China, the world’s biggest metals user, to its weakest growth in seven years. Yesterday, copper surged to the highest price since late November on speculation additional stimulus spending in China would boost demand for metals.
“There was no increase in the overall size of the stimulus package, something that may be disappointing the markets,” Edward Meir, an analyst at MF Global Ltd. in Darien, Connecticut, said in a report. more...
CIMB Research maintains underweight on palm oil plantations
CIMB Equities Research is maintaining its underweight recommendation on Malaysian plantations due to their expensive price to earnings (P/E) valuations and unexciting earnings prospects.
“The average forward P/E of the three big cap planters in Malaysia of 16 times is 33% higher than our target market P/E of 12x and 51% higher than regional plantation P/E of 10.6 times,” it said in a report issued on March 5.
It expected crude palm oil (CPO) price to be range-bound in short-term. Most planters are more upbeat on CPO price compared to the last quarter with most expecting CPO price to trade range-bound of between RM1,800 and RM2,000 per tonne in the short-term.
The more positive tone was due to concern of weaker soybean crops from South America, biological tree stress and heavier rainfall in parts of Malaysia leading to lower palm oil yields, lower palm oil stockpile in Malaysia and measures announced by the government to lower supplies and boost domestic consumption in the form of replanting incentives and biodiesel mandates. more...
“The average forward P/E of the three big cap planters in Malaysia of 16 times is 33% higher than our target market P/E of 12x and 51% higher than regional plantation P/E of 10.6 times,” it said in a report issued on March 5.
It expected crude palm oil (CPO) price to be range-bound in short-term. Most planters are more upbeat on CPO price compared to the last quarter with most expecting CPO price to trade range-bound of between RM1,800 and RM2,000 per tonne in the short-term.
The more positive tone was due to concern of weaker soybean crops from South America, biological tree stress and heavier rainfall in parts of Malaysia leading to lower palm oil yields, lower palm oil stockpile in Malaysia and measures announced by the government to lower supplies and boost domestic consumption in the form of replanting incentives and biodiesel mandates. more...
Reuters Wall Street hits 12-year lows on GE and GM woes
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks slid on Thursday with the Dow and S&P falling to 12-year lows as General Motors' warning of possible bankruptcy and concerns about the banking system's fate reinforced investors' reluctance to take on risk.
The previous session's rally proved fleeting as worries about the financial system's health hit bank stocks again and investors focused on the possibility that troubles in the finance arm of widely held General Electric could lead to a debt rating downgrade for the entire company.
GE's stock was down 0.5 percent at $6.66 after falling to its lowest since 1991 a day earlier. Uncertainty about the exposure of U.S. banks to GE remained a significant concern and the S&P financial index fell nearly 10 percent. more...
The previous session's rally proved fleeting as worries about the financial system's health hit bank stocks again and investors focused on the possibility that troubles in the finance arm of widely held General Electric could lead to a debt rating downgrade for the entire company.
GE's stock was down 0.5 percent at $6.66 after falling to its lowest since 1991 a day earlier. Uncertainty about the exposure of U.S. banks to GE remained a significant concern and the S&P financial index fell nearly 10 percent. more...
Reuters Wall Street hits 12-year lows on GE and GM woes
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks slid on Thursday with the Dow and S&P falling to 12-year lows as General Motors' warning of possible bankruptcy and concerns about the banking system's fate reinforced investors' reluctance to take on risk.
The previous session's rally proved fleeting as worries about the financial system's health hit bank stocks again and investors focused on the possibility that troubles in the finance arm of widely held General Electric could lead to a debt rating downgrade for the entire company.
GE's stock was down 0.5 percent at $6.66 after falling to its lowest since 1991 a day earlier. Uncertainty about the exposure of U.S. banks to GE remained a significant concern and the S&P financial index fell nearly 10 percent. more...
The previous session's rally proved fleeting as worries about the financial system's health hit bank stocks again and investors focused on the possibility that troubles in the finance arm of widely held General Electric could lead to a debt rating downgrade for the entire company.
GE's stock was down 0.5 percent at $6.66 after falling to its lowest since 1991 a day earlier. Uncertainty about the exposure of U.S. banks to GE remained a significant concern and the S&P financial index fell nearly 10 percent. more...
Kamis, 05 Maret 2009
CNBC New Jobless Claims Take Surprising Drop of 31,000
The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits fell more than expected last week, a government report showed on Thursday, but remained at high levels consistent with a severe recession.
The Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits fell by 31,000 to a seasonally adjusted 639,000 in the week ended Feb. 28 from an upwardly revised 670,000 the prior week.
Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast 650,000 new claims versus a previously reported 667,000 the previous week.
The number of people staying on the benefits roll after drawing an initial week of aid eased by 14,000 to 5.11 million in the week ended Feb. 21, the latest week for which the data is available, from 5.12 million the previous week.
That number remains near record highs, indicating that the harsh economic environment is making it tough to find new jobs. more...
The Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits fell by 31,000 to a seasonally adjusted 639,000 in the week ended Feb. 28 from an upwardly revised 670,000 the prior week.
Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast 650,000 new claims versus a previously reported 667,000 the previous week.
The number of people staying on the benefits roll after drawing an initial week of aid eased by 14,000 to 5.11 million in the week ended Feb. 21, the latest week for which the data is available, from 5.12 million the previous week.
That number remains near record highs, indicating that the harsh economic environment is making it tough to find new jobs. more...
CNBC ECB Cuts Interest Rate by Half-Point to 1.5%
The European Central Bank cut interest rates to an all-time low of 1.5 percent on Thursday, keeping up a record pace of reductions as the euro zone economy slides deeper into recession.
All but two of 78 economists polled by Reuters last week predicted the 50 basis point move, which took euro zone rates down from 2.0 percent.
The ECB has now slashed borrowing costs by 275 basis points since October.
Money market traders and other financial players had also fully priced in the cut, steered by dire euro zone economic data in recent weeks and a steady stream of hints from policymakers. It takes rates to the lowest level in the ECB's 10-year history.
But analysts expect the central bank to keep cutting in the next few months as the financial turmoil and recession exert a tighter stranglehold on the euro zone.
"Fifty basis points is exactly as expected but there are a lot of critical issues that we look to be addressed at the press conference," said Barclays Capital economist Julian Callow. more...
CNBC Bank of Engand Cuts Rates, to Buy Govt Bonds
The Bank of England cut interest rates by 50 basis points on Thursday to a record low of 0.5 percent, and said it would buy 75 billion pounds of assets to expand the money supply and aid a recession-hit British economy.
Unveiling the asset purchase program -- the start of "quantitative easing" measures employed when rates get near to their minimum -- the Bank said the likely majority of purchases over the next three months would be of gilts (UK government bonds) at medium and long maturities.
Gilts soared on the announcement, with the June future rallying more than 2.50 full points, while sterling fell against the dollar. The latest rate reduction means the BoE has now cut interest rates for six months running by a total of 4.5 percentage points as Britain struggles with its first recession since the early 1990s.
The government has given the BoE permission to buy as much as 150 billion pounds' worth of assets with newly-created money. This figure also includes 50 billion pounds set aside in the government's asset purchase facility that hitherto would have been funded by the issue of Treasury bills. The total of 150 billion pounds was at the top end of what analysts had been expecting.
The Bank said it would monitor the effectiveness of the asset buying program at its future meetings. Such a policy was pursued by Japan at the start of the decade but is unprecedented in Britain and underlines the severity of the downturn caused by the global credit crisis. The policy is intended to encourage the banks to lend more freely to households and businesses, and in turn stimulate economic growth.
The latest reduction in interest rates would itself leave a substantial risk of inflation undershooting the two percent target in two-years' time. But the BoE added it was also concerned that a low level of interest rates could be counterproductive for some markets.
"It is in line with expectations. The decision to embark on an asset purchase of 75 billion is obviously the right move," said Amit Kara, UK economist at UBS. "We think it is a start and will probably end up double the size, probably over the course of the year."
Macq United Tractors - Taking market share - Lifting EPS
United Tractors - Taking market share - Lifting EPS
For investors who look for mid-term beneficiaries of this global crisis, UNTR is an abvious candidate given its mining contracting exposure that accounts for 40% of gross profit for '09. Major foreign competitors, Leighton and Thiess, are cutting back staffs at the moment (business development division most affected), while at the same time limiting working capital allocation from HQ. For them, Indonesian business has been more resilient than that of the other countries, but they are fully aware that too big exposure to any single emerging country can lead to bond rating downgrade.
Smaller domestic competitors are having financing difficulties at the same time, which is key for importation of heavy equipment in this tight USD environment. On this finding, MacQ analyst Albert Saputro and Adam Worthington lift EPS forecasts by 2% in FY09 and 9% in FY10. DCF and PxT raised to Rp 8,400 from Rp7,200 as mining contracting mid-term market share being increased from 29% to 34%. BUY.
For investors who look for mid-term beneficiaries of this global crisis, UNTR is an abvious candidate given its mining contracting exposure that accounts for 40% of gross profit for '09. Major foreign competitors, Leighton and Thiess, are cutting back staffs at the moment (business development division most affected), while at the same time limiting working capital allocation from HQ. For them, Indonesian business has been more resilient than that of the other countries, but they are fully aware that too big exposure to any single emerging country can lead to bond rating downgrade.
Smaller domestic competitors are having financing difficulties at the same time, which is key for importation of heavy equipment in this tight USD environment. On this finding, MacQ analyst Albert Saputro and Adam Worthington lift EPS forecasts by 2% in FY09 and 9% in FY10. DCF and PxT raised to Rp 8,400 from Rp7,200 as mining contracting mid-term market share being increased from 29% to 34%. BUY.
Macq BBCA NIM continues to expand
BCA:
NIM continues to expand in 2M09, upgrade around the corner
Having reported a much stronger-than-expected pre-provision profit in 4Q08 on the back of expanding net interest margin (NIM), MacQ analyst Yofi Lasini called BCA and discovered that NIM had expanded further in the first two months of 2009. NIM came in at 7.8% in 4Q08, vs. 6.9% in 3Q08 and 5.8% in 1Q08.
MacQ is forecasting a NIM of 6.0% for '09 against '08 actual of 6.3%, to arrive at a net income forecast of Rp5.71trn for FY09 (consensus Rp5.79trn). Analyst meeting is scheduled for 18 March and we suspect there could be sizeable EPS upgrade around the corner. For now, the stock trades on 11x FY09 P/E and 2..5x P/B with 24% RoE. Trough P/B multiple since 2009 was around 2.3x. The stock has just started to run after a period of underperformance in the second session yesterday, there should be follow through buying. BUY.
NIM continues to expand in 2M09, upgrade around the corner
Having reported a much stronger-than-expected pre-provision profit in 4Q08 on the back of expanding net interest margin (NIM), MacQ analyst Yofi Lasini called BCA and discovered that NIM had expanded further in the first two months of 2009. NIM came in at 7.8% in 4Q08, vs. 6.9% in 3Q08 and 5.8% in 1Q08.
MacQ is forecasting a NIM of 6.0% for '09 against '08 actual of 6.3%, to arrive at a net income forecast of Rp5.71trn for FY09 (consensus Rp5.79trn). Analyst meeting is scheduled for 18 March and we suspect there could be sizeable EPS upgrade around the corner. For now, the stock trades on 11x FY09 P/E and 2..5x P/B with 24% RoE. Trough P/B multiple since 2009 was around 2.3x. The stock has just started to run after a period of underperformance in the second session yesterday, there should be follow through buying. BUY.
UBS Indo Tambangraya Pricing Power
Indo Tambangraya Pricing Power
(Buy; ITMG IJ; Rp9,700; TP Rp13,400, prev Rp14,552) In spite of the recent downturn in coal prices (-11% YTD), Indo Tambangraya (ITMG) has successfully priced 57% of its 2009 coal sales volume (c.11mn tons) at c.US$80/ton. The price is better than FY08 average of US$74/ton. ITMG has also announced a reserves and resources upgrade to 312mn tons (+31%) and 1,675mn tons (+12%), thus extending its mine life to 15 years. Under the premise of this positive update, we maintain our BUY recommendation for ITMG with TP of
Rp13,400.
Average sales price (ASP) still improving. As ITMG already priced in 57% of its FY09 coal sales at c.US$80/ton, we believe the ASP will achieve US$78/ton for FY09 despite recent downturn in coal price. Barlow Jonker Index now stands at US$69/ton, already down 11% for the year and 63% from its peak in 2008.
Production cost will stabilise. We raised our production cash cost estimate for FY09 and FY10 by 6% on the back of higher mining contractors’ fee and higher strip ratio amid declining fuel price. However, as ASP is still improving, margin will remain robust.
Mine life extended. ITMG has just upgraded its coal reserves and resources to 312mn tons (+31%) and 1,675mn tons (+12%), thus extending its mine life to 15 years, assuming p.a. production of 20mn tons. Increase in reserves is mostly from Indominco mine (+66mn tons) which contains relatively high quality coal with CV of c.6,300. The reserves and resources evaluation was conducted by independent mineral specialist from UK and Australia and already complied with “The Australasian Code for Reporting Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves” (JORC Code).
BUY, TP Rp13,400. We revised our target price to 13,400 as we assumed higher production cost that reduces our earnings forecasts for FY09-10 by 10% and 14% each respectively. We derived our target price using DCF methodology with WACC assumption of 15.5%. We reiterate our BUY call.
CNBC China Restates Growth Goal, Silent on Extra Stimulus
Premier Wen Jiabao said China would ramp up its budget deficit to hit the government's coveted 8 percent growth target but did not make the announcement markets had craved of an increase in its 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) economic stimulus plan.
In his annual work report on Thursday to the National People's Congress, the largely ceremonial parliament, Wen said the 2009 growth goal was realistic despite a deepening global financial crisis.
"It needs to be stressed that in projecting the GDP growth target at 8 percent, we have taken into consideration both our need and ability to sustain development in China," he said. "As long as we adopt the right policies and appropriate measures and implement them effectively, we will be able to achieve this target."
Global markets soared on Wednesday on speculation that Wen would add to the stimulus plan unveiled in November to head off a rise in unemployment that could threaten the social stability prized by the ruling Communist party.
Wen said China's budget deficit this year -- 950 billion yuan -- would jump to almost 3 percent of national income from 0.4 percent in 2008. By comparison, the United States is planning for a deficit of 12.3 percent of GDP this year.
Investment spending, covering everything from railways to affordable housing, will double; outlays on health care will rise 38 percent; and spending on the social safety net and employment will go up 22 percent, according to the 2009 budget.
But Wen announced no increase in the 4 trillion yuan price tag of November's pump-priming package to revive the world's third-largest economy, which has been hit by a slump in demand for its exports. more...
Recognia Inc Bumi Resources Tbk PT forms bullish "Flag" chart pattern
Bumi Resources Tbk PT forms bullish "Flag" chart pattern
2009-03-04 11:01:24.328 GMT
A "Flag (Bullish)" chart pattern formed on Bumi Resources Tbk PT (Jakarta Stock Exchange). This bullish signal indicates that the price may rise from the close of 800.00 to the range of 910.00 - 942.00. The pattern formed over 8 days which is roughly the period of time in which the target price range may be achieved.
A Flag (Bullish) is considered a bullish signal, indicating that the current uptrend may continue. After a steep rise in price, the pennant reflects a temporary pause in the uptrend, consisting of two parallel trendlines that form a rectangular flag shape.
This bullish pattern can be seen on the following chart and was recognized by Recognia Inc.'s patent pending pattern recognition technology.
2009-03-04 11:01:24.328 GMT
A "Flag (Bullish)" chart pattern formed on Bumi Resources Tbk PT (Jakarta Stock Exchange). This bullish signal indicates that the price may rise from the close of 800.00 to the range of 910.00 - 942.00. The pattern formed over 8 days which is roughly the period of time in which the target price range may be achieved.
A Flag (Bullish) is considered a bullish signal, indicating that the current uptrend may continue. After a steep rise in price, the pennant reflects a temporary pause in the uptrend, consisting of two parallel trendlines that form a rectangular flag shape.
This bullish pattern can be seen on the following chart and was recognized by Recognia Inc.'s patent pending pattern recognition technology.
Bloomberg Leuthold Says Stocks Will Surge, Depression Avoided
By Betty Liu and Lynn Thomasson
March 4 (Bloomberg) -- Steve Leuthold, whose Grizzly Short Fund returned 74 percent last year betting against U.S. stocks, said now is the time to buy equities because investors are too fearful about the economy.
"These comparisons people make with the Great Depression are totally out of touch with reality, and pretty stupid," he told Bloomberg Television in an interview today. "We've been in much worse, much more panicked and more scary situations in the U.S." The economy isn't as bad as it was in 1974, when stocks began rebounding, said Minneapolis-based Leuthold. He predicted the Standard & Poor's 500 Index will surge to at least 1,000 in 2009, representing a gain of 44 percent from yesterday's 12-year low of 696.33. The benchmark measure of U.S. stocks rose 1.4 percent to 706.08 at 9:56 a.m. in New York on speculation China will add to a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) spending plan. Because a rally is likely, Leuthold said investors shouldn't buy his Grizzly Short Fund. It has returned 26 percent in 2009.
The Leuthold Core Investment Fund, which bets on stock gains, is most concentrated in biotechnology companies, automotive retailers and education providers, he said. Investors should also buy equities in China, Korea and Taiwan because their economies are growing faster and the Asian banking system hasn't been battered by subprime loans as badly as U.S. financial institutions, Leuthold said.
"We're going global," he said. "Global investing is the way of the future. "Leuthold's joins short seller Bill Fleckenstein in forecasting a rally because the market declined too far, too fast. Fleckenstein, who warned of the housing bubble in 2005, closed his 13-year-old bear market fund last year and recently bought shares of Microsoft Corp. after they traded at the cheapest since at least 1987.
For Related News and Information:
Stories on U.S. stocks: NI USS
Market map of the S&P 500: SPX IMAP
March 4 (Bloomberg) -- Steve Leuthold, whose Grizzly Short Fund returned 74 percent last year betting against U.S. stocks, said now is the time to buy equities because investors are too fearful about the economy.
"These comparisons people make with the Great Depression are totally out of touch with reality, and pretty stupid," he told Bloomberg Television in an interview today. "We've been in much worse, much more panicked and more scary situations in the U.S." The economy isn't as bad as it was in 1974, when stocks began rebounding, said Minneapolis-based Leuthold. He predicted the Standard & Poor's 500 Index will surge to at least 1,000 in 2009, representing a gain of 44 percent from yesterday's 12-year low of 696.33. The benchmark measure of U.S. stocks rose 1.4 percent to 706.08 at 9:56 a.m. in New York on speculation China will add to a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) spending plan. Because a rally is likely, Leuthold said investors shouldn't buy his Grizzly Short Fund. It has returned 26 percent in 2009.
The Leuthold Core Investment Fund, which bets on stock gains, is most concentrated in biotechnology companies, automotive retailers and education providers, he said. Investors should also buy equities in China, Korea and Taiwan because their economies are growing faster and the Asian banking system hasn't been battered by subprime loans as badly as U.S. financial institutions, Leuthold said.
"We're going global," he said. "Global investing is the way of the future. "Leuthold's joins short seller Bill Fleckenstein in forecasting a rally because the market declined too far, too fast. Fleckenstein, who warned of the housing bubble in 2005, closed his 13-year-old bear market fund last year and recently bought shares of Microsoft Corp. after they traded at the cheapest since at least 1987.
For Related News and Information:
Stories on U.S. stocks: NI USS
Market map of the S&P 500: SPX
Trimegah UNTR FY08 Result: Surpassing Expectations
United Tractors (HOLD – Rp5,350) - FY08 Result: Surpassing Expectations
FY08 revenue growth jumped significantly, by 53.6% YoY, to Rp27.9tr from Rp18.2tr a year earlier. Growth was propelled by a 42.2% YoY growth in heavy equipment (HE) sales to Rp12.4tr, 48.1% YoY growth in mining contracting (MC) revenue to Rp11.6tr and 141.2% YoY growth in coal sales (CS) to Rp3.9tr.
Strong revenue growth translated to a gross and operating profit growth of 69.3% YoY and 73.5% YoY to Rp5.5tr and Rp4.2tr, respectively. As such, FY08 gross margin improved to 19.7% from 17.9%, while operating margin improved to 14.9% from 13.2%.
FY08 net profit was given a further boost from lower interest expense of Rp189.7tr, translating to a 78.2% YoY net profit growth to Rp2.7tr from Rp1.5tr a year earlier.
FY08 earning beats our estimate. Revenue is 2.1% below our estimate of Rp28.5tr while gross, operating and net profit are 7.4% - 8.8% above our estimates of Rp5.1tr, Rp3.9tr and Rp2.4tr, respectively. Nevertheless, we note that coal production fee showed a significant decline by 21.6% QoQ to US$6.9/ton in 4Q08. UNTR explained that the decline was mainly due to a change in accounting treatment in the HE rental revenue to Darma Henwa (DEWA). In 9M08, Pama recorded the transaction as operating lease but in 4Q08 the auditor revised it to capital lease. As such, the company loss about Rp100bn of MC revenue in 4Q08. We maintain our HOLD recommendation with TP of Rp5,300/share.
FY08 revenue growth jumped significantly, by 53.6% YoY, to Rp27.9tr from Rp18.2tr a year earlier. Growth was propelled by a 42.2% YoY growth in heavy equipment (HE) sales to Rp12.4tr, 48.1% YoY growth in mining contracting (MC) revenue to Rp11.6tr and 141.2% YoY growth in coal sales (CS) to Rp3.9tr.
Strong revenue growth translated to a gross and operating profit growth of 69.3% YoY and 73.5% YoY to Rp5.5tr and Rp4.2tr, respectively. As such, FY08 gross margin improved to 19.7% from 17.9%, while operating margin improved to 14.9% from 13.2%.
FY08 net profit was given a further boost from lower interest expense of Rp189.7tr, translating to a 78.2% YoY net profit growth to Rp2.7tr from Rp1.5tr a year earlier.
FY08 earning beats our estimate. Revenue is 2.1% below our estimate of Rp28.5tr while gross, operating and net profit are 7.4% - 8.8% above our estimates of Rp5.1tr, Rp3.9tr and Rp2.4tr, respectively. Nevertheless, we note that coal production fee showed a significant decline by 21.6% QoQ to US$6.9/ton in 4Q08. UNTR explained that the decline was mainly due to a change in accounting treatment in the HE rental revenue to Darma Henwa (DEWA). In 9M08, Pama recorded the transaction as operating lease but in 4Q08 the auditor revised it to capital lease. As such, the company loss about Rp100bn of MC revenue in 4Q08. We maintain our HOLD recommendation with TP of Rp5,300/share.
CLSA BCA (BBCA IJ), anticipating downturn, maintain OPF
Research Today: BCA (BBCA IJ), anticipating downturn, maintain OPF
Our bank analyst Nico Oentung wrote a report on BCA (BBCA IJ), following recent meeting with management. Nico maintains his OPF rating for BBCA with TP of Rp2,800.
BBCA has an excellent franchise, as evident by BBCA’s strength in deposit growth. There is flight to quality now, and with some foreign banks likely to reduce the presence, BBCA can take more market shares. This bank is one of the survivors that will come out of this crisis stronger.
Excellent franchise + strong capital ratio + conservative controlling shareholders mean we don’t have to worry about capital raising. That alone is hugely appealing for investors, in our view. Buy the stock on weakness.
Reasons to like BBCA:
(1) High quality balance sheet
Liquidity is strong, deposits +9% QoQ (CASA +6%). Flight to quality + BBCA’s strong position as a leading transaction bank.
Liquid assets +32% QoQ, now account for 29% of total assets, the highest in the sector.
Loan loss reserves + 24% QoQ despite nominal NPL relatively flat (NPL cover: 453%).
(2) Prudent management, feedback from corporate clients indicates improvement
Provisioning is expected to more than double in 09, NIM should remain healthy at 5-6% with incremental loans of Rp15tn per annum or equivalent to 13-15% loans growth.
Feedbacks from corporate customers have been quite positive so far, which help ease previous concerns on rapidly deteriorating market conditions.
NPL is expected to tick up from current 0.6% to 1.5% in 09, but still manageable.
Capital ratio is strong at 16%, mainly Tier 1.
(3) Decent valuations (10.8x 09 CL PE, 2.2x CL P/B, ROE one of the highest in the banking sector at 22-23%).
Our bank analyst Nico Oentung wrote a report on BCA (BBCA IJ), following recent meeting with management. Nico maintains his OPF rating for BBCA with TP of Rp2,800.
BBCA has an excellent franchise, as evident by BBCA’s strength in deposit growth. There is flight to quality now, and with some foreign banks likely to reduce the presence, BBCA can take more market shares. This bank is one of the survivors that will come out of this crisis stronger.
Excellent franchise + strong capital ratio + conservative controlling shareholders mean we don’t have to worry about capital raising. That alone is hugely appealing for investors, in our view. Buy the stock on weakness.
Reasons to like BBCA:
(1) High quality balance sheet
Liquidity is strong, deposits +9% QoQ (CASA +6%). Flight to quality + BBCA’s strong position as a leading transaction bank.
Liquid assets +32% QoQ, now account for 29% of total assets, the highest in the sector.
Loan loss reserves + 24% QoQ despite nominal NPL relatively flat (NPL cover: 453%).
(2) Prudent management, feedback from corporate clients indicates improvement
Provisioning is expected to more than double in 09, NIM should remain healthy at 5-6% with incremental loans of Rp15tn per annum or equivalent to 13-15% loans growth.
Feedbacks from corporate customers have been quite positive so far, which help ease previous concerns on rapidly deteriorating market conditions.
NPL is expected to tick up from current 0.6% to 1.5% in 09, but still manageable.
Capital ratio is strong at 16%, mainly Tier 1.
(3) Decent valuations (10.8x 09 CL PE, 2.2x CL P/B, ROE one of the highest in the banking sector at 22-23%).
Mandiri Sekuritas BI rate cut warranted, amid elevated risk on economic growth
Bank Indonesia cut its benchmark rate by 50bps to 7.75%, in line with our forecast but higher than consensus estimate. This was the third cut of such magnitude since the beginning of the year from 9.25% in light of worsening growth outlook, while inflation is ebbing.
The recent sales data on consumer sectors highlighted the downside risk on the economic growth, given the fact that private consumption contributes around 60% of
total GDP. Car and motorcycle sales dropped by 23.5% yoy and 22.3% yoy respectively,
while on mom basis they fell by 20.2% and 8.7%. Retail sales from Ramayana stores
declined by 2.1% yoy (vs. 6.5% yoy in Dec08). A significant drop in external demand,
reflected in the 36.1% yoy plunge in exports in Jan09, has also increased the need for domestic demand growth stimulus. Bank Indonesia projected the economy to only grow by 4.0% in 2009, slowing from 6.1% last year. But it still warned that growth could undershoot such projection if the global downturn is worse than expected.
We remain concerned on the rigidity of lending rate in responding to the BI rate cuts because it could mitigate the effectiveness of the monetary policy. As of end Feb09, the average rupiah-lending rate was 16.5% merely declining from 16.7% end of Jan09, despite total 100-bp cut since the end of last year. Furthermore, the decline in BI rate and narrower spread between SBI, the alternative liquidity placement, and BI rate might be needed to encourage banks to lend.
The recent sales data on consumer sectors highlighted the downside risk on the economic growth, given the fact that private consumption contributes around 60% of
total GDP. Car and motorcycle sales dropped by 23.5% yoy and 22.3% yoy respectively,
while on mom basis they fell by 20.2% and 8.7%. Retail sales from Ramayana stores
declined by 2.1% yoy (vs. 6.5% yoy in Dec08). A significant drop in external demand,
reflected in the 36.1% yoy plunge in exports in Jan09, has also increased the need for domestic demand growth stimulus. Bank Indonesia projected the economy to only grow by 4.0% in 2009, slowing from 6.1% last year. But it still warned that growth could undershoot such projection if the global downturn is worse than expected.
We remain concerned on the rigidity of lending rate in responding to the BI rate cuts because it could mitigate the effectiveness of the monetary policy. As of end Feb09, the average rupiah-lending rate was 16.5% merely declining from 16.7% end of Jan09, despite total 100-bp cut since the end of last year. Furthermore, the decline in BI rate and narrower spread between SBI, the alternative liquidity placement, and BI rate might be needed to encourage banks to lend.
Mandiri Sekuritas ISAT Neutral Ground
ISAT reported revenue growth of 13.2%yoy in FY08 resulting in 4.7%yoy growth in operating profit. Margins narrowed slightly from 27.4% to 25.4%, which is resonable after massive expansion in FY08. Based on the FY08 results we have fine-tuned our underlying assumptions for FY09-10, resulting in only 0.5-%-0.7% slash in earnings in FY09-10 respectively. We gave a 10.6% discount to our old DCF-derived TP of Rp4,700/share and arrived at Rp4,500/share! so as to imply PER09F of 11.6x, which is in line with regional peer average. It’s offering 5.3% upside to the current price; hence we maintain Neutral call. Note at our TP, ISAT trades at premium to TLKM given its higher growth.
Investor Timur Tengah Incar Saham Panin
IQP, (5/3) - Investor Timur Tengah Incar Saham Panin
Institusi keuangan Timur Tengah dikabarkan ingin mengambil porsi saham PT Panin Life Tbk (PNLF) sebesar 30 persen. Hal itu terungkap, di sela acara World Islamic Economic Forum (WIEF) yang baru saja dilangsungkan di Jakarta.
Institusi keuangan itu bernama Al Barakah, ingin masuk pasar asuransi syariah di Indonesia dengan cara menggandeng perseroan. Sebab, selain Indonesia dengan mayoritas penduduk muslim terbesar di dunia sangat potensial bagi pengembangan asuransi syariah, emiten juga berniat membuka usaha syariah.
Per 31 Januari 2009, Mellon S/A Cundill Recovery FD memiliki saham berkode PNLF sebesar 10 persen, PT Panin Insurance Tbk 56 persen, dan UBS Ag London Branch A/C IPB Segregated delapan persen. End (ibk)
Institusi keuangan Timur Tengah dikabarkan ingin mengambil porsi saham PT Panin Life Tbk (PNLF) sebesar 30 persen. Hal itu terungkap, di sela acara World Islamic Economic Forum (WIEF) yang baru saja dilangsungkan di Jakarta.
Institusi keuangan itu bernama Al Barakah, ingin masuk pasar asuransi syariah di Indonesia dengan cara menggandeng perseroan. Sebab, selain Indonesia dengan mayoritas penduduk muslim terbesar di dunia sangat potensial bagi pengembangan asuransi syariah, emiten juga berniat membuka usaha syariah.
Per 31 Januari 2009, Mellon S/A Cundill Recovery FD memiliki saham berkode PNLF sebesar 10 persen, PT Panin Insurance Tbk 56 persen, dan UBS Ag London Branch A/C IPB Segregated delapan persen. End (ibk)
Associated Press Coal companies shares up at noon
NEW YORK (AP) --
Shares of some top coal companies are up at noon:
Arch Coal rose $.84 or 6.6 percent, to $13.50.
Consol Energy rose $3.02 or 12.8 percent, to $26.59.
Massey Energy rose $1.16 or 11.3 percent, to $11.41.
Peabody Energy rose $1.82 or 8.4 percent, to $23.46.
Shares of some top coal companies are up at noon:
Arch Coal rose $.84 or 6.6 percent, to $13.50.
Consol Energy rose $3.02 or 12.8 percent, to $26.59.
Massey Energy rose $1.16 or 11.3 percent, to $11.41.
Peabody Energy rose $1.82 or 8.4 percent, to $23.46.
Associated Press Oil rises above $45 as inventories fall
NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices jumped 9 percent Wednesday as global stock markets rallied and the government reported crude levels in U.S. storage houses unexpectedly shrank.
Benchmark crude for April delivery rose $3.73 a barrel to settle at $45.38 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its highest close in six weeks. Oil prices shot up as high as $45.76 a barrel earlier in the day.
The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said crude inventories dropped by 700,000 barrels, or 0.2 percent, to 350.6 million barrels, for the week ended Feb. 27. Analysts had expected a boost of 2.2 million barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.
Crude inventories have been bloated for months, and a one-week drop won't signal a sustained rally in oil prices, said Tom Kloza, publisher and chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service.
"It's going to be a shaky year. The fundamentals are still poor," Kloza said. "Oil prices won't move higher without some signs that the economic malaise has bottomed out." more...
Associated Press Shares of coal, copper mining companies rise on hopes of new Chinese stimulus plan
DENVER (AP) -- Shares of coal and copper mining companies jumped Wednesday as investors found the potential for good news in an expected Chinese economic stimulus package.
A legislative meeting starts Thursday in China where government leaders will discuss how to expand growth rates that have been dragged down by the global economic downturn.
Investors are hoping China, the world's third-largest economy, can help pull the world out of recession by reviving its own growth and demand for imports.
China "really wants to boost employment," Friedman Billings Ramsey analyst Luther Lu said in a telephone interview. "Hopefully, this will pull the entire commodity resource sector up."
Oil and copper also rose Wednesday, and Jefferies & Co. analyst Michael Dudas noted China's actions affect nearly every commodity. "With these stocks being so under pressure ... you're getting a nice bounce back," he said. more...
A legislative meeting starts Thursday in China where government leaders will discuss how to expand growth rates that have been dragged down by the global economic downturn.
Investors are hoping China, the world's third-largest economy, can help pull the world out of recession by reviving its own growth and demand for imports.
China "really wants to boost employment," Friedman Billings Ramsey analyst Luther Lu said in a telephone interview. "Hopefully, this will pull the entire commodity resource sector up."
Oil and copper also rose Wednesday, and Jefferies & Co. analyst Michael Dudas noted China's actions affect nearly every commodity. "With these stocks being so under pressure ... you're getting a nice bounce back," he said. more...
Bloomberg Standard Chartered Says Commodities Hedging Demand May Triple
March 4 (Bloomberg) -- Standard Chartered Plc, U.K.’s second-largest bank by market value, said “strong” commodity hedging demand from companies will help triple its clients this year and may spur hiring.
The number of customers wanting commodity-hedging services tripled last year, and could show the same level of growth this year, Vincent Van Pelt, the head of global equities and commodities at the bank, said today in an interview in Hong Kong.
“As the market becomes more volatile that also increases the business in terms of commodity hedging,” Pelt said. “We’re seeing a lot of growth.”
The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities this year fell to the lowest level since June 2002, as the global recession crimped demand from carmakers and builders. The price collapse has cut off cash flow and forced producers to seek Chinese investments and secure sale prices for future output.
The London-based bank added about 20 people, including in China, Hong Kong and Singapore, in its commodity business last year and will consider hiring more staff to meet hedging demand, Pelt and Sean Mulhearn, global head of commodity derivatives, said at the same interview. more...
The number of customers wanting commodity-hedging services tripled last year, and could show the same level of growth this year, Vincent Van Pelt, the head of global equities and commodities at the bank, said today in an interview in Hong Kong.
“As the market becomes more volatile that also increases the business in terms of commodity hedging,” Pelt said. “We’re seeing a lot of growth.”
The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities this year fell to the lowest level since June 2002, as the global recession crimped demand from carmakers and builders. The price collapse has cut off cash flow and forced producers to seek Chinese investments and secure sale prices for future output.
The London-based bank added about 20 people, including in China, Hong Kong and Singapore, in its commodity business last year and will consider hiring more staff to meet hedging demand, Pelt and Sean Mulhearn, global head of commodity derivatives, said at the same interview. more...
Bloomberg Soybeans, Corn Rise as China’s Stimulus Plan to Boost Demand
March 4 (Bloomberg) -- Soybeans rose the most in more than three weeks and corn gained on speculation that demand for food and livestock feed will improve as China boosts government spending in a bid to spur economic growth.
Premier Wen Jiabao will announce a new stimulus package tomorrow, said Li Deshui, a former central bank policy maker. China’s manufacturing index rose for a third month in February, adding to evidence that spending is reviving growth. The country is the world’s biggest consumer of grain and oilseeds.
“China’s economy looks like it is moving back into an expansion mode,” said Roy Huckabay, an executive vice president for the Linn Group in Chicago. “A controlled economy like China can turn around much faster than a free-market economy.”
Sovereign-Fund Buying
China Investment Corp., the $200 billion sovereign wealth fund, may invest in “undervalued” commodity assets, joining other Chinese companies in taking advantage of a six-year low in prices, Executive Vice President Jesse Wang told reporters today in Beijing.
The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for commodities, posted a fourth consecutive advance on the Baltic Exchange, suggesting improved commodity demand, analysts said. The index, after dropping 92 percent last year, has more than doubled since Dec. 24.
“The jump in the shipping index is a sign that China is again restocking natural resources,” Linn’s Huckabay said. “This could be a signal for other countries to start buying, and that means U.S. grain exports may be better than people expect.” more...
Premier Wen Jiabao will announce a new stimulus package tomorrow, said Li Deshui, a former central bank policy maker. China’s manufacturing index rose for a third month in February, adding to evidence that spending is reviving growth. The country is the world’s biggest consumer of grain and oilseeds.
“China’s economy looks like it is moving back into an expansion mode,” said Roy Huckabay, an executive vice president for the Linn Group in Chicago. “A controlled economy like China can turn around much faster than a free-market economy.”
Sovereign-Fund Buying
China Investment Corp., the $200 billion sovereign wealth fund, may invest in “undervalued” commodity assets, joining other Chinese companies in taking advantage of a six-year low in prices, Executive Vice President Jesse Wang told reporters today in Beijing.
The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for commodities, posted a fourth consecutive advance on the Baltic Exchange, suggesting improved commodity demand, analysts said. The index, after dropping 92 percent last year, has more than doubled since Dec. 24.
“The jump in the shipping index is a sign that China is again restocking natural resources,” Linn’s Huckabay said. “This could be a signal for other countries to start buying, and that means U.S. grain exports may be better than people expect.” more...
Associated Press Fed: Little hope for quick improvement in economy
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The country spiraled deeper into recession to start 2009, forcing widespread cutbacks and layoffs among everyone from blue-collar workers who once churned out construction equipment to white-collar professionals like business consultants and accountants.
The Federal Reserve's new snapshot of business activity nationwide, released Wednesday, showed the economic picture darkening over the last two months and revealed little hope for a quick turnaround.
Ten of the 12 fed regions said economic activity worsened, while the Philadelphia and Chicago districts said economies "remained weak."
"National economic conditions deteriorated further," the Fed's survey concluded. "The deterioration was broadbased, with only a few sectors such as basic food production and pharmaceuticals appearing to be exceptions."
Looking ahead, business people rated the prospects "for near-term improvement in economic conditions as poor, with a significant pickup not expected before late 2009 or early 2010."
The survey summarizes information from businesses and others supplied to the Fed's 12 regional banks. The information -- most of it anecdotal -- was collected on or before Feb. 23. It's used by the Fed to get a better idea of what's occurring at the ground level of the economy and will figure into discussions among Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues when they meet next on March 17-18. more...
The Federal Reserve's new snapshot of business activity nationwide, released Wednesday, showed the economic picture darkening over the last two months and revealed little hope for a quick turnaround.
Ten of the 12 fed regions said economic activity worsened, while the Philadelphia and Chicago districts said economies "remained weak."
"National economic conditions deteriorated further," the Fed's survey concluded. "The deterioration was broadbased, with only a few sectors such as basic food production and pharmaceuticals appearing to be exceptions."
Looking ahead, business people rated the prospects "for near-term improvement in economic conditions as poor, with a significant pickup not expected before late 2009 or early 2010."
The survey summarizes information from businesses and others supplied to the Fed's 12 regional banks. The information -- most of it anecdotal -- was collected on or before Feb. 23. It's used by the Fed to get a better idea of what's occurring at the ground level of the economy and will figure into discussions among Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues when they meet next on March 17-18. more...
Reuters China optimism, oil's surge halts Wall Street 5-day rout
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks rallied on Wednesday, ending a five-day losing streak, as another Chinese stimulus package boosted commodity prices and encouraged investors to jump into energy and natural resource shares.
News that China will increase spending on infrastructure and manufacturing drove oil and metals prices higher, helping to underpin the market after it hit a 12-year low a day earlier.
"The market has been down so long and gone to levels that a lot of investors thought were cheap or undervalued," said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer of Johnson Illington Advisors in Albany, New York.
"All of the economies are interlinked, so if you can get the first-biggest economy going, the U.S., and the third-biggest economy going, China, then that alone will start bank lending and an increase in the securitization." more...
Bloomberg Stocks Rise Around the World; Commodities Gain, Treasuries Fall
March 4 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks rose around the world, oil and metal prices rallied and Treasuries fell on speculation China will broaden efforts to boost growth and U.S. lawmakers will reach agreement on a plan to stem mortgage defaults.
Alcoa Inc. and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. jumped more than 12 percent and Chevron Corp. rose 2.7 percent as an official in China said Premier Wen Jiabao will announce a new stimulus plan tomorrow. Caterpillar Inc., the biggest maker of bulldozers, surged 13 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rebounded from a 12-year low after five straight losses dragged its valuation to the cheapest since 1986.
“Stocks are cheap and the sun will rise again,” said Lawrence Creatura, a Rochester, New York-based money manager at Federated Investors Inc., which oversees $407 billion. “There’s a ray of sunshine in two areas: China and housing. It’s an incremental positive for both commodities and housing.” more...
Alcoa Inc. and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. jumped more than 12 percent and Chevron Corp. rose 2.7 percent as an official in China said Premier Wen Jiabao will announce a new stimulus plan tomorrow. Caterpillar Inc., the biggest maker of bulldozers, surged 13 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rebounded from a 12-year low after five straight losses dragged its valuation to the cheapest since 1986.
“Stocks are cheap and the sun will rise again,” said Lawrence Creatura, a Rochester, New York-based money manager at Federated Investors Inc., which oversees $407 billion. “There’s a ray of sunshine in two areas: China and housing. It’s an incremental positive for both commodities and housing.” more...
Rabu, 04 Maret 2009
Aliran Gas PGN ke PLTU Muara Tawar Capai 200 MMscfd
Jakarta - Penyaluran gas PGN ke PLTU Muara Tawar hingga Februari 2009 mencapai tingkat rata-rata 200-210 MMScfd. Penyaluran tersebut sesuai dengan target perjanjian jual beli pada 30 April 2008.
Demikian disampaikan Direktur Pengusahaan PGN Michael Baskoro dalam keterangan pers yang diterima detikFinance, Rabu (4/3/2009). "Penyaluran ini sesuai komitmen PGN untuk mendukung program konversi energi bagi pembangkit listrik PLN," katanya.
Ia menjelaskan, tahapan berikutnya adalah persiapan untuk menyalurkan tambahan pasokan gas sebesar 100 MMScfd secara interruptible basis. Untuk itu diperlukan kesiapan dari masing-masing pihak baik PGN, maupun PLN. Pengaliran gas sebesar 100 MMScfd secara interruptible basis tersebut diharapkan dapat terealisasi pada tahun ini. "Status penyaluran gas PGN ke Pembangkit Listrik PLN di Muara Tawar sangat ditentukan oleh kesiapan dan kondisi fasilitas di sisi PGN maupun PLN," tambahnya.
PGN sudah mulai mengalirkan gas ke PLTU Muara Tawar sejak 2008. Namun volumenya tidak langsung tinggi, melainkan naik secara bertahap sesuai kebutuhan dan kesiapan masing-masing pihak. (lih/qom)
AAA Securities ANTM 2008 results
Aneka Tambang posted 74.4% decline on net profit for 2008 period to Rp1.3 tr as compared to Rp5.1 tr a year earlier , this was attributable to lower ferronickel selling price of US$21,736/ton in 2008 from US$34,672/ton in 2007. Despite the company managed to post Rp1.6 tr of net profit in 9M08, severe drop on global nickel price in the last quarter of 2008 forced ANTM’s Ferronickel selling price to accelerate the decline in the same period to US$13,178 from US$20,438/ton in
3Q08. As a result, the company full year result was below its nine months achievements.
This condition occurs as Aneka Tambang has to post higher cost due to higher fuel price and lower inventory. The company fuel cost increased to Rp999.6 bn from Rp636.4 bn on the back of higher oil price in 2008. Also, Antam has to post 98.9% higher material cost to Rp2.7 tr in 2008 (Rp1 tr of which is posted during 4Q08) from Rp1.4 tr a year earlier because of lower end inventory value since it has to be priced based on marked to market approach. As such, the combination of lower sales price and higher cost of sales slashed the company profitability in 2008, operating mar gin dropped to 16.9% from 56.6% in 2007.
Overall, the company’s bottom line in 2008 came be low our forecast of Rp2.2 tr as 4Q08 performance posted a net loss of Rp311.2 bn. Therefore, we have revisited our model for 2009F in particular on our material projection and come up with a slight adjustment on our 2009F cost of sales estimation. Our new projection expects a higher material cost of Rp850.3bn compared to our previous estimate of Rp522.7 bn. We expect nickel price to continue its downward trend this year.
Nevertheless, we view that the company current share price is trading above such mentioned potential where its shares price currently valued at 13.6x PER 2009F. Therefore we have revised out target price to Rp900 and downgraded ANTM from hold to sell.
3Q08. As a result, the company full year result was below its nine months achievements.
This condition occurs as Aneka Tambang has to post higher cost due to higher fuel price and lower inventory. The company fuel cost increased to Rp999.6 bn from Rp636.4 bn on the back of higher oil price in 2008. Also, Antam has to post 98.9% higher material cost to Rp2.7 tr in 2008 (Rp1 tr of which is posted during 4Q08) from Rp1.4 tr a year earlier because of lower end inventory value since it has to be priced based on marked to market approach. As such, the combination of lower sales price and higher cost of sales slashed the company profitability in 2008, operating mar gin dropped to 16.9% from 56.6% in 2007.
Overall, the company’s bottom line in 2008 came be low our forecast of Rp2.2 tr as 4Q08 performance posted a net loss of Rp311.2 bn. Therefore, we have revisited our model for 2009F in particular on our material projection and come up with a slight adjustment on our 2009F cost of sales estimation. Our new projection expects a higher material cost of Rp850.3bn compared to our previous estimate of Rp522.7 bn. We expect nickel price to continue its downward trend this year.
Nevertheless, we view that the company current share price is trading above such mentioned potential where its shares price currently valued at 13.6x PER 2009F. Therefore we have revised out target price to Rp900 and downgraded ANTM from hold to sell.
Mandiri Sekuritas ANTM Muted expectations
FY08 net income dropped by 74.4%yoy. Antam posted revenue of Rp9.5tn,
down by 20.6%yoy as a result of (a) lower ferronickel and nickel ore sale volume
(-2.9%yoy and -22.6%yoy) and (b) lower average selling prices of both
commodities (-37.3%yoy and -26.7%yoy). The bright spot came from gold, for
which the company booked sales of Rp2.7tn, up by 165.0%yoy, as it accounted
for 29% of total revenue. Additionally, cost of sales grew 51.8%yoy to Rp7.0tn,
due to the 57.0% surge in fuel costs. Overall, the summary effect was a 74.4%yoy
drop in 2008 net earnings to Rp1.3tn, below ours and consensus estimates.
Gold is not the answer…for now. The gold jump in 2008 is somewhat a
misnomer. Although gold revenue jumped by 165.0%yoy, due to higher sales
volume of 9,820 (+96%yoy) and selling price of US$873/t.oz, this principally came
from gold trading via Logam Mulia where margins are thin; gold ore production
on the other hand, remained flat. Likewise for 2009, gold production is set to be
only 2,821kg, about the same production level in 2008. Thus, should nickel
prospects remain depressed, Antam’s gold contribution should be again more
relevant than it is traditionally supposed to be.
Sell and maintain PE based TP of Rp905/share. At this juncture, in the
absence of vital pricing support, we maintain a sell on the stock with TP of
Rp905/share, while slashing down our FY09-10F earnings by 74.7% and 65.5%
from previous estimates to Rp344bn and Rp638bn. Upside risks are (a) rebound
in nickel prices and (b) improved global demand of stainless steel which should
help push up prices of intermediary products such as nickel.
down by 20.6%yoy as a result of (a) lower ferronickel and nickel ore sale volume
(-2.9%yoy and -22.6%yoy) and (b) lower average selling prices of both
commodities (-37.3%yoy and -26.7%yoy). The bright spot came from gold, for
which the company booked sales of Rp2.7tn, up by 165.0%yoy, as it accounted
for 29% of total revenue. Additionally, cost of sales grew 51.8%yoy to Rp7.0tn,
due to the 57.0% surge in fuel costs. Overall, the summary effect was a 74.4%yoy
drop in 2008 net earnings to Rp1.3tn, below ours and consensus estimates.
Gold is not the answer…for now. The gold jump in 2008 is somewhat a
misnomer. Although gold revenue jumped by 165.0%yoy, due to higher sales
volume of 9,820 (+96%yoy) and selling price of US$873/t.oz, this principally came
from gold trading via Logam Mulia where margins are thin; gold ore production
on the other hand, remained flat. Likewise for 2009, gold production is set to be
only 2,821kg, about the same production level in 2008. Thus, should nickel
prospects remain depressed, Antam’s gold contribution should be again more
relevant than it is traditionally supposed to be.
Sell and maintain PE based TP of Rp905/share. At this juncture, in the
absence of vital pricing support, we maintain a sell on the stock with TP of
Rp905/share, while slashing down our FY09-10F earnings by 74.7% and 65.5%
from previous estimates to Rp344bn and Rp638bn. Upside risks are (a) rebound
in nickel prices and (b) improved global demand of stainless steel which should
help push up prices of intermediary products such as nickel.
Bloomberg Indonesia Cuts Rate to Spur Consumer Spending as Economy Slows
Indonesia Cuts Rate to Spur Consumer Spending as Economy Slows
2009-03-04 05:12:59.510 GMT
By Aloysius Unditu and Arijit Ghosh
March 4 (Bloomberg) -- Indonesia's central bank reduced its benchmark interest rate for a fourth straight month to help boost consumer spending as exports plummet.
Governor Boediono and his seven colleagues lowered the key rate to 7.75 percent from 8.25 percent, the central bank said in a statement in Jakarta today. The cut was expected by seven of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, with the other 12
forecasting a quarter-point reduction.
Indonesia is banking on local demand for homes, cars and motorcycles to sustain growth after exports plunged the most in 22 years in January. Merrill Lynch & Co. last week cut its 2009 growth forecast for Southeast Asia's largest economy to 3.6
percent, the weakest pace of expansion since 2001. ``We have to rely on domestic demand'' to boost growth, said Destry Damayanti, an economist at PT Mandiri Sekuritas in Jakarta. ``If we take a big cut, then expectations are higher'' that commercial lending rates will also decline, she said.
Private consumption, which accounts for about 70 percent of the $433 billion Indonesian economy, increased 4.8 percent in the final three months of 2008, the weakest pace of growth in six quarters. Car sales at the Indonesian unit of Toyota Motor Corp. and rivals fell 23 percent to 31,637 in January, the lowest in 15
months. Motorcycles sales plunged 22 percent in the month. Overseas shipments declined 35.5 percent in January to $7.15 billion from a year earlier, the Central Statistics Bureau said March 2. That's the biggest drop since 1986. Consumer prices rose 8.6 percent in February from a year earlier, the smallest increase in 11 months.
Slowing Inflation
Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati on March 2 said she expects consumer prices gains to slow every month until July. Bank Indonesia is targeting to keep inflation within 5 percent to 7 percent this year. Manufacturers in Japan, Indonesia's biggest export market, cut production by a record 10 percent in January, adding to evidence the economy is in its worst recession in 60 years. ``Our Japanese economist is now forecasting a sharp recession for the economy this year which means this downward
trend in Indonesian export growth is unlikely to reverse any time soon,'' Chan Kok Peng, chief economist at BNP Paribas Securities Asia in Singapore, said in a note on March 2. Policy makers across Asia are slashing borrowing costs and increasing government spending to help the region cope with the global economy's worst crisis since the Great Depression. Asia is almost twice as reliant on exports as the rest of the world. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's government forecasts Indonesian economic growth this year of 4.5 percent, slowing from 2008's 6.1 percent pace of expansion.
To sustain growth, the government has proposed a 73.3 trillion rupiah ($6.1 billion) stimulus package. Indonesia last week sold $3 billion of dollar-denominated bonds to help finance its spending. ``The banking sector is not lending because they have a
perception that credit risk will increase,'' said Mandiri's Damayanti. The government and the central bank need to take a lead to encourage banks to lend, she said.
For Related News and Information:
Stories on interest rates: {BI IJ TCNI MMK }
Indonesia's economic data: {ECST ID}
2009-03-04 05:12:59.510 GMT
By Aloysius Unditu and Arijit Ghosh
March 4 (Bloomberg) -- Indonesia's central bank reduced its benchmark interest rate for a fourth straight month to help boost consumer spending as exports plummet.
Governor Boediono and his seven colleagues lowered the key rate to 7.75 percent from 8.25 percent, the central bank said in a statement in Jakarta today. The cut was expected by seven of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, with the other 12
forecasting a quarter-point reduction.
Indonesia is banking on local demand for homes, cars and motorcycles to sustain growth after exports plunged the most in 22 years in January. Merrill Lynch & Co. last week cut its 2009 growth forecast for Southeast Asia's largest economy to 3.6
percent, the weakest pace of expansion since 2001. ``We have to rely on domestic demand'' to boost growth, said Destry Damayanti, an economist at PT Mandiri Sekuritas in Jakarta. ``If we take a big cut, then expectations are higher'' that commercial lending rates will also decline, she said.
Private consumption, which accounts for about 70 percent of the $433 billion Indonesian economy, increased 4.8 percent in the final three months of 2008, the weakest pace of growth in six quarters. Car sales at the Indonesian unit of Toyota Motor Corp. and rivals fell 23 percent to 31,637 in January, the lowest in 15
months. Motorcycles sales plunged 22 percent in the month. Overseas shipments declined 35.5 percent in January to $7.15 billion from a year earlier, the Central Statistics Bureau said March 2. That's the biggest drop since 1986. Consumer prices rose 8.6 percent in February from a year earlier, the smallest increase in 11 months.
Slowing Inflation
Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati on March 2 said she expects consumer prices gains to slow every month until July. Bank Indonesia is targeting to keep inflation within 5 percent to 7 percent this year. Manufacturers in Japan, Indonesia's biggest export market, cut production by a record 10 percent in January, adding to evidence the economy is in its worst recession in 60 years. ``Our Japanese economist is now forecasting a sharp recession for the economy this year which means this downward
trend in Indonesian export growth is unlikely to reverse any time soon,'' Chan Kok Peng, chief economist at BNP Paribas Securities Asia in Singapore, said in a note on March 2. Policy makers across Asia are slashing borrowing costs and increasing government spending to help the region cope with the global economy's worst crisis since the Great Depression. Asia is almost twice as reliant on exports as the rest of the world. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's government forecasts Indonesian economic growth this year of 4.5 percent, slowing from 2008's 6.1 percent pace of expansion.
To sustain growth, the government has proposed a 73.3 trillion rupiah ($6.1 billion) stimulus package. Indonesia last week sold $3 billion of dollar-denominated bonds to help finance its spending. ``The banking sector is not lending because they have a
perception that credit risk will increase,'' said Mandiri's Damayanti. The government and the central bank need to take a lead to encourage banks to lend, she said.
For Related News and Information:
Stories on interest rates: {BI IJ
Indonesia's economic data: {ECST ID
Mandiri Sekuritas Key takeaways from our visit (UNTR, Rp5,000, Buy, TP: Rp7,800)
Here are some key takeaways from our visit to United Tractors (UNTR), yesterday:
1. Komatsu Japan allows UNTR to return some of its heavy equipment inventory at cost. This will help company’s working capital management.
2. Company renewed its contract with Kideco for ten years in Jan09. For FY09F, contract for mining contractors is secure as next contract expiry would be in 2010F on which amounting to 5.2mn tons of coal (about 8.8% of FY08 total production).
3. UNTR indicated that Feb09 coal extraction and coal production would be poor as weather remains unfriendly. However, management is still optimistic to catch up their annual target in second and third quarter.
Now trading at PER09F of 6.3x, we remain a buyer for UNTR as mining contracting would show steady performance with support of higher fee as stripping ratio to remain at 7.5x. Key risks to our valuation remain on unfriendly weather, price war among heavy equipment sellers, and coal price drops below cost of production (cash cost of
UNTR clients is US$35-40/ton on average).
1. Komatsu Japan allows UNTR to return some of its heavy equipment inventory at cost. This will help company’s working capital management.
2. Company renewed its contract with Kideco for ten years in Jan09. For FY09F, contract for mining contractors is secure as next contract expiry would be in 2010F on which amounting to 5.2mn tons of coal (about 8.8% of FY08 total production).
3. UNTR indicated that Feb09 coal extraction and coal production would be poor as weather remains unfriendly. However, management is still optimistic to catch up their annual target in second and third quarter.
Now trading at PER09F of 6.3x, we remain a buyer for UNTR as mining contracting would show steady performance with support of higher fee as stripping ratio to remain at 7.5x. Key risks to our valuation remain on unfriendly weather, price war among heavy equipment sellers, and coal price drops below cost of production (cash cost of
UNTR clients is US$35-40/ton on average).
Mandiri Sekuritas 2 investors are targeting Jeruk asset for some US$180mn (MEDC,
Company indicates that 2 investors are interested to acquire Jeruk asset for some US$180mn. Note that the company has previously taken out Jeruk asset from the remaining asset to be divested, considering its economic interest rather than working interest. The possible acquisition price is similar to company’s valuation on the particular asset, thus they may not book any gain from this transaction. We have not factored in
such action in our forecast, nor included the asset in MEDC’s overall 2P reserves. The company also mentioned that they may postpone the divestment plan of Rimau and Bawean blocks, which previously targeted to be carried out this year. MEDC is currently trading at EV/2P of US$2.6/boe. Note that we have not included Libya asset reserves in our calculation as well. Adding the reserves from Libya will result into lower EV/2P of US$1.8/boe.
such action in our forecast, nor included the asset in MEDC’s overall 2P reserves. The company also mentioned that they may postpone the divestment plan of Rimau and Bawean blocks, which previously targeted to be carried out this year. MEDC is currently trading at EV/2P of US$2.6/boe. Note that we have not included Libya asset reserves in our calculation as well. Adding the reserves from Libya will result into lower EV/2P of US$1.8/boe.
Mandiri Sekuritas Auto Sector: Feb09 4-wheelers sales rebound month on month
According to Kontan, initial numbers shows that domestic car sales for February has rebounded, with some 34k units sold, up by 7% mom although 28% lower from year ago level, primarily due to sale of new variants of existing models and the public’s anticipation of further price increase, which have led to upfronting of demand. This brings 2M09 sales to 65,637 units, down by 26% yoy. The first two months sales represent about 14.6% of our FY09 estimates of 450k units, thus lagging behind at the moment. However, with BI rates expected to cut to 7.75% today, this would give added pressure for banks to cut on lending rates, which have remained constant despite a number of BI rate cuts (100 basis point cut year to date), should help financing affordability, thus, a potential for a demand uptick. We maintain Buy for Astra International (ASII, Rp10,800, Buy,TP: Rp17,900), which currently trades at PER09F 5.5x and P/BV 09 of 1.2x.
CNBC Oil Above $44, Eyes China Recovery, OPEC Cuts
By: Reuters | 04 Mar 2009 | 09:07 AM ET
U.S. crude oil futures jumped more than $2 above $44 per barrel on Wednesday, supported by better economic news from China and expectations by some traders that OPEC oil producers may further cut output.The main gauge of China's manufacturing sector, its purchasing managers' index (PMI), rose in February, suggesting the country could be on the brink of economic recovery.
US light, sweet crude [US@CL.1 43.42 1.77 (+4.25%)] for April delivery rose.
London Brent crude [GB@IB.1 45.44 1.74 (+3.98%)] rose.
China's PMI index rose for the third month in a row last month as factories restocked in anticipation of an early revival in the economy despite deepening global gloom elsewhere.
The figures were in stark contrast to data from the United States, which have suggested the economy of the world's biggest oil consumer is still contracting.
OPEC meets in Vienna on March 15 and needs to decide if it will further cut production or wait to see the impact of reductions in output that it has already implemented. The 12-member producer group has already promised to reduce oil output by 4.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from production levels in September and a Reuters survey suggests OPEC members have already met at least 81 percent of their promised cuts.
U.S. crude oil stockpiles dipped 463,000 barrels last week amid lower import levels and higher demand from refiners, the industry group American Petroleum Institute said on Tuesday.
The EIA will release its inventory report for last week later on Wednesday, and crude oil supplies are forecast to have risen 1.2 million barrels, according to a Reuters poll. more...
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