Downgrading 2009 and 2010 GDP Forecasts — We downgrade our GDP forecasts for 2009 and 2010 to -4.9% (from -2.8%) and 3.3% (from 3.8%) respectively. Our 2009 forecast is lower than consensus (-3.3%), while our 2010 forecast is in line.
1Q09 GDP could contract near 10%yoy, but this may mark the technical bottom — Deeper manufacturing slump (likely -25-30%), together with continued, but shallower contraction in services, will pose severe drags on 1Q09 GDP growth. Base effects, and possibility of a near term bottom in manufacturing, could imply a somewhat slower rate of YoY contraction from 2Q09 onwards.
Recovery likely sluggish as external demand fundamentals weak; return to positive YoY growth only in 4Q09E — Domestic demand revival in China would do little to lift Singapore. Fiscal stimulus would cushion, but is unlikely to end the US recession. US growth could be constrained by structural rise in US household savings rate, and we think impact of Obama’s fiscal stimulus should not be overstated. A relapse, with a W shaped scenario, remains a risk.
Deteriorating Labour Market to Further Impede Domestic Demand — Decline in labour productivity, structural dislocations, will increase pressures to retrench. We expect the unemployment rate to average 4.8% in 2009 and expect net job losses of between 50-60K in 2009.
Some Recent Positive Signs despite Obvious Downside Risks — While there remain obvious downside risks; we cannot ignore some recent positive signs in the domestic economy. Fiscal measures are having some success in alleviating the credit crunch and mitigating the extent of job losses. Recent signs of life in the property market are encouraging, though sustainability remains very much in question. Reduction in COE quotas could also provide a temporary lift to retail sales in 1Q09.
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar