Jakarta Detik.com - PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara telah menyampaikan penawaran 7% saham divestasi 2010 senilai US$ 444.079.808 kepada pemerintah Indonesia. Nilai divestasi ini mengalami kenaikan 79,93% (US$ 197,279 juta) jika dibandingkan nilai 7 persen saham divestasi Newmont tahun 2009 senilai US$ 246,8 juta.
"Harga saham ini naik dibandingkan nilai 7% divestasi tahun 2009 karena fase 6 dan 7 sudah dimasukkan dalam aset Newmont," ujar Direktur Jenderal Minerbapabum, Kementerian ESDM, Bambang Setiawan saat dihubungi wartawan, Rabu (31/3/2010).
Setelah menerima penawaran tersebut, Bambang menyatakan pihaknya akan mempertimbangkan kembali apakah pemerintah pusat akan membeli 7% saham divestasi tersebut atau tidak.
Ditjen Minerbapabum, lanjut Bambang, diberi masa tenggang selama 30 hari untuk mengevaluasi penawaran tersebut sebelum diserahkan ke Kementerian Keuangan (Kemenkeu).
"Nanti Ditjen Minerbapabum akan mengevaluasi kemudian diserahkan ke Kementerian Keuangan yang akan menyatakan akan membeli atau tidak,"paparnya.
Sementara itu, juru bicara PTNNT Rubi Purnomo membenarkan pihaknya telah menawarkan 7% terakhir saham divestasi Newmont kepada Pemerintah RI pada hari ini, 31 Maret 2010.
Namun saat ditanya berapa harga saham yang ditawarkan Newmont kepada pemerintah, Rubi enggan berkomentar. "Karena penawarannya sudah kita sampaikan ke Pemerintah, untuk pertanyaan-pertanyaan lainnya sebaiknya ditanyakan ke Pemerintah ya," paparnya.
Seperti diketahui, hasil keputusan arbitrase telah menyebutkan Newmont memiliki kewajiban untuk mendivestasikan 31% sahamnya kepada pemerintah Indonesia. Adapun 31% saham tersebut terdiri dari 3% saham divestasi jatah divestasi tahun 2006, 7% saham tahun 2007, 2008, 2009, dan 2010.
Sebelumnya, PT Bumi Resources Tbk melalui anak usahanya Multicapital dan Pemda NTB melalui PT Multi Daerah Bersaing (MDB) telah menguasai 24% saham Newmont.
Kamis, 01 April 2010
Palm oil : on a slippery surface
Rutam Vora, Commodity Online
Faced with the rising stocks on fresh arrivals in Malaysian markets and reduced imports by major consumer markets like India seems to be putting crude palm oil prices on a slippery surface in the coming months with first four months of the current oil year (November 2009 to Octrober 2010) showing not so significant rise in the oil imports in India.
Crude Palm Oil imports during the first four months of the current oil year were reported at 2,398,509 tonnes as compared to 2,334,463 tonnes during the same period last year with a marginal rise. Palm oil, which is the second largest edible oil in the world is consumed heavily in Indian subcontinents.
However, the demand from the millers has remained weak during past few months but a revival in demand is expected as the financial year closure is around the corner. During November-February, import of refined, bleached and diodized (RBD) palmolein was reported at 513,296 tonnes as compared to 471,177 tonnes during the same period last year.
Overall imports of vegetable oils during the first four month of the current oil year (November 2009-October 2010) was reported at 3,114,553 tonnes, a rise of 5.5 per cent from 2,951,551 tonnes in the corresponding period last year.
Average crude palm oil prices jumped around 20% during the last one year from Rs.28,252 a tonne in February 2009 to Rs.35,959 a tonne in the same month this year. RBD palmolein perked up to Rs.39,182 a tonne from Rs.33,380 a tonne.
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Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchanges traded lower last week on concerns over disappointing exports amid rising production. The benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives exchange ended MYR41 lower at the intraday low of MYR2,534 a metric ton, after trading in a range of MYR2,534-MYR2,565. CPO April futures remained lower on MCX at around Rs.368.50, lower by Rs.1.70 per 10 kg.
A Jakarta - based marketing centre sold 6000 tonnes of crude palm oil at a top price of 7470 rupiah (USD 0.815) per kg, against 7,434 rupiah per kg on Friday. Producers in Medan, home to Indonesia's main palm oil export port of Belawan, did not hold any palm oil tenders on Monday.
Taking into account the bearish sentiment, Jakarta-based refiners kept the prices unchanged for refined, bleached, deodorised (RBD) palmolein, used as cooking oil at 7,850 rupiah per kg.
According to analysts, there is a bit of bearish sentiment that is weighing on prices. Malaysian exports are higher on month. Production is rising, prompting fears of rising stock levels.
Cash market prices for forward months like July, August and September are trading at a discount to nearer months, likely indicative that stocks are tipped to rise in the next few months.
Faced with the rising stocks on fresh arrivals in Malaysian markets and reduced imports by major consumer markets like India seems to be putting crude palm oil prices on a slippery surface in the coming months with first four months of the current oil year (November 2009 to Octrober 2010) showing not so significant rise in the oil imports in India.
Crude Palm Oil imports during the first four months of the current oil year were reported at 2,398,509 tonnes as compared to 2,334,463 tonnes during the same period last year with a marginal rise. Palm oil, which is the second largest edible oil in the world is consumed heavily in Indian subcontinents.
However, the demand from the millers has remained weak during past few months but a revival in demand is expected as the financial year closure is around the corner. During November-February, import of refined, bleached and diodized (RBD) palmolein was reported at 513,296 tonnes as compared to 471,177 tonnes during the same period last year.
Overall imports of vegetable oils during the first four month of the current oil year (November 2009-October 2010) was reported at 3,114,553 tonnes, a rise of 5.5 per cent from 2,951,551 tonnes in the corresponding period last year.
Average crude palm oil prices jumped around 20% during the last one year from Rs.28,252 a tonne in February 2009 to Rs.35,959 a tonne in the same month this year. RBD palmolein perked up to Rs.39,182 a tonne from Rs.33,380 a tonne.
Get Trading Tips just for one commodity
Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchanges traded lower last week on concerns over disappointing exports amid rising production. The benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives exchange ended MYR41 lower at the intraday low of MYR2,534 a metric ton, after trading in a range of MYR2,534-MYR2,565. CPO April futures remained lower on MCX at around Rs.368.50, lower by Rs.1.70 per 10 kg.
A Jakarta - based marketing centre sold 6000 tonnes of crude palm oil at a top price of 7470 rupiah (USD 0.815) per kg, against 7,434 rupiah per kg on Friday. Producers in Medan, home to Indonesia's main palm oil export port of Belawan, did not hold any palm oil tenders on Monday.
Taking into account the bearish sentiment, Jakarta-based refiners kept the prices unchanged for refined, bleached, deodorised (RBD) palmolein, used as cooking oil at 7,850 rupiah per kg.
According to analysts, there is a bit of bearish sentiment that is weighing on prices. Malaysian exports are higher on month. Production is rising, prompting fears of rising stock levels.
Cash market prices for forward months like July, August and September are trading at a discount to nearer months, likely indicative that stocks are tipped to rise in the next few months.
Steel prices shoot up by Rs 3,000/tonne
NEW DELHI (Commodity Online): As Commodityonline had earlier predicted steel prices will go up by around Rs 3,000 per tonne from April 1 following a rise in input costs.
A few importers have already contracted hot rolled coil supply for April and May at $800 a tonne. The final price works out to be $1,000 a tonne after factoring in other costs such as customs, excise duty, transportation and labour.
Taking a cue from imports, domestic HR coil prices may touch about Rs 46,000 a tonne (all-inclusive), against the prevailing Rs 43,500. HR sheet prices will also be revised upwards from Rs 45,000 a tonne, the trader adds.
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In January, the National Mineral development Corporation increased iron ore prices by 15 per cent with another hike expected in April. Coking coal prices are also being revised upwards. With this cost push, steel makers will be left with no option but to raise prices.
Iron ore from NMDC was priced between Rs 1,900 and Rs 3,000 a tonne depending on the quality of ore. The demand for ore is set to rise in the coming days as it takes two tonnes to make a tonne of steel.
In past ten days, iron ore prices have risen by almost 20 to 40 per cent, one of the biggest rallies in recent times. The Steel Authority of India, Tata Steel, Essar Steel and JSW Steel have already hiked prices by Rs 1,500 to Rs 2,000 a tonne in the past two months.
Nippon Steel Corp and Brazilian miner Vale SA have tentatively agreed to set the price of iron ore at about $105 a tonne for supply in the June quarter, up by about 90 percent from all of fiscal 2009.
Despite the recent hikes, steel prices are still lower compared to the historic highs in 2008. HR prices were then ruling at Rs 57,000 a tonne while CR coils were at Rs 62,000 in July 2008.
A few importers have already contracted hot rolled coil supply for April and May at $800 a tonne. The final price works out to be $1,000 a tonne after factoring in other costs such as customs, excise duty, transportation and labour.
Taking a cue from imports, domestic HR coil prices may touch about Rs 46,000 a tonne (all-inclusive), against the prevailing Rs 43,500. HR sheet prices will also be revised upwards from Rs 45,000 a tonne, the trader adds.
Exclusive and reserved reports now open to public
In January, the National Mineral development Corporation increased iron ore prices by 15 per cent with another hike expected in April. Coking coal prices are also being revised upwards. With this cost push, steel makers will be left with no option but to raise prices.
Iron ore from NMDC was priced between Rs 1,900 and Rs 3,000 a tonne depending on the quality of ore. The demand for ore is set to rise in the coming days as it takes two tonnes to make a tonne of steel.
In past ten days, iron ore prices have risen by almost 20 to 40 per cent, one of the biggest rallies in recent times. The Steel Authority of India, Tata Steel, Essar Steel and JSW Steel have already hiked prices by Rs 1,500 to Rs 2,000 a tonne in the past two months.
Nippon Steel Corp and Brazilian miner Vale SA have tentatively agreed to set the price of iron ore at about $105 a tonne for supply in the June quarter, up by about 90 percent from all of fiscal 2009.
Despite the recent hikes, steel prices are still lower compared to the historic highs in 2008. HR prices were then ruling at Rs 57,000 a tonne while CR coils were at Rs 62,000 in July 2008.
Associated Press Analyst revises oil, gas price estimates
DENVER (AP) -- A Capitol One Southcoast Inc. analyst has lowered his long-term natural gas price forecast and raised his estimate on oil prices, citing business conditions in the energy markets.
In a research note to clients, analyst Richard Tullis reduced his long-term natural gas estimate to $6 per million cubic feet from $6.50 million cubic feet.
He lowered the gas estimate for the second quarter through the fourth quarter of 2010 to $4.50 per million cubic feet from $5 per million cubic feet.
The changes were based on four weeks of bearish natural gas inventory data and a higher-than-expected rig count, among other factors, Tullis said.
In oil, Tullis raised his long-term estimate to $80 a barrel from $75 a barrel, citing an upside that has developed in the market since last summer.
Tullis downgraded GMX Resources Inc. to "Add" from "Strong Buy," and revised the target price to $13 a share from $18 a share.
The analyst lowered the rating for PetroQuest Energy Inc. to "Add" from "Strong Buy," and revised its target price to $8 a share from $9.50 a share.
Goodrich Petroleum Corp. was reaffirmed with a "Strong Buy" rating but its stock price target was lowered to $24 a share from $33 a share.
He also raised the rating for Arena Resources Inc. to "Add" from "Neutral, and set the price target at $44 per a share, up from $39 a share.
On Wednesday, shares of GMX Resources rose 10 cents to close at $8.22. PetroQuest fell 4 cents to $5.03. Goodrich Petroleum fell 11 cents to $15.64, and Arena Resources rose 78 cents, or 2.4 percent, to $33.40.
In a research note to clients, analyst Richard Tullis reduced his long-term natural gas estimate to $6 per million cubic feet from $6.50 million cubic feet.
He lowered the gas estimate for the second quarter through the fourth quarter of 2010 to $4.50 per million cubic feet from $5 per million cubic feet.
The changes were based on four weeks of bearish natural gas inventory data and a higher-than-expected rig count, among other factors, Tullis said.
In oil, Tullis raised his long-term estimate to $80 a barrel from $75 a barrel, citing an upside that has developed in the market since last summer.
Tullis downgraded GMX Resources Inc. to "Add" from "Strong Buy," and revised the target price to $13 a share from $18 a share.
The analyst lowered the rating for PetroQuest Energy Inc. to "Add" from "Strong Buy," and revised its target price to $8 a share from $9.50 a share.
Goodrich Petroleum Corp. was reaffirmed with a "Strong Buy" rating but its stock price target was lowered to $24 a share from $33 a share.
He also raised the rating for Arena Resources Inc. to "Add" from "Neutral, and set the price target at $44 per a share, up from $39 a share.
On Wednesday, shares of GMX Resources rose 10 cents to close at $8.22. PetroQuest fell 4 cents to $5.03. Goodrich Petroleum fell 11 cents to $15.64, and Arena Resources rose 78 cents, or 2.4 percent, to $33.40.
Financial Time Rubber price breaks 58-year record
The price of natural rubber, the commodity used in products ranging from tyres to condoms, hit an all-time high above $3.50 per kilogramme on Wednesday after a severe drought in Thailand, the world’s largest producer, curtailed supplies.
The increase has broken one of the longest standing price records in commodities, dating back to 1952, when fears about the potential spread of the Korean War to key south-east Asian rubber-producing countries triggered panic buying.
The benchmark rubber ribbed smoked sheet 3, or RSS3, was quoted on Wednesday at $3.52 per kg in the physical market, according to data from the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand, surpassing the $3.50 per kg peak set almost 60 years ago.
The price increase – about 75 per cent over the past year – is likely to lift costs for manufacturers heavily dependant on the commodity, particularly tyres. In the past, most companies have passed the cost increase on to their consumers.
“The present market is tough for raw material purchasing managers,” said Jom Jacob, a senior economist at the Kuala Lumpur-based Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries. “We could imagine what would be the response of the rubber market if tyre companies frantically enter the market. Perhaps, they do not want to fuel the prices further,” Mr Jacob added.
The physical market for rubber is more important that the derivatives market, which is based in Tokyo, quoted in yen and mostly attracts interest from Japanese speculators.
At the Tokyo Commodities Exchange, rubber for delivery in September on Wednesday rose to Y311.3 per kg, an 18-month high. The exchange rate between the yen and the US dollar has a big influence on rubber futures.
The price surge comes on the back of the worst drought in north Thailand in a decade, which meteorologists blame on the lingering impact of the El Niño weather phenomenon. Drought has also hit India, the world’s fourth-largest producer.
Meteorologists said the recurring climatic event – caused by a rise in the water temperature in the tropical Pacific – hit its peak in January and has since shown signs of cooling.
But its impact is now being fully felt on rubber plantations. In any case, rubber supplies usually decline during the February-to-April winter season in Thailand.
While supply lags, demand has been stronger than expected in emerging markets. China, the world’s largest rubber consumer, has stepped up buying, with imports in January and February up almost 80 per cent compared with the same period of 2009.
India and Malaysia, two key consumers, are also buying more.
The increase has broken one of the longest standing price records in commodities, dating back to 1952, when fears about the potential spread of the Korean War to key south-east Asian rubber-producing countries triggered panic buying.
The benchmark rubber ribbed smoked sheet 3, or RSS3, was quoted on Wednesday at $3.52 per kg in the physical market, according to data from the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand, surpassing the $3.50 per kg peak set almost 60 years ago.
The price increase – about 75 per cent over the past year – is likely to lift costs for manufacturers heavily dependant on the commodity, particularly tyres. In the past, most companies have passed the cost increase on to their consumers.
“The present market is tough for raw material purchasing managers,” said Jom Jacob, a senior economist at the Kuala Lumpur-based Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries. “We could imagine what would be the response of the rubber market if tyre companies frantically enter the market. Perhaps, they do not want to fuel the prices further,” Mr Jacob added.
The physical market for rubber is more important that the derivatives market, which is based in Tokyo, quoted in yen and mostly attracts interest from Japanese speculators.
At the Tokyo Commodities Exchange, rubber for delivery in September on Wednesday rose to Y311.3 per kg, an 18-month high. The exchange rate between the yen and the US dollar has a big influence on rubber futures.
The price surge comes on the back of the worst drought in north Thailand in a decade, which meteorologists blame on the lingering impact of the El Niño weather phenomenon. Drought has also hit India, the world’s fourth-largest producer.
Meteorologists said the recurring climatic event – caused by a rise in the water temperature in the tropical Pacific – hit its peak in January and has since shown signs of cooling.
But its impact is now being fully felt on rubber plantations. In any case, rubber supplies usually decline during the February-to-April winter season in Thailand.
While supply lags, demand has been stronger than expected in emerging markets. China, the world’s largest rubber consumer, has stepped up buying, with imports in January and February up almost 80 per cent compared with the same period of 2009.
India and Malaysia, two key consumers, are also buying more.
Pecahkan Rekor, Kodeco Produksi Migas 28.827 Barel/Hari
JAKARTA Okezone - Kodeco Energy Indonesia memecahkan rekor produksi minyak dan gas (migas) sejak 23 Maret lalu. Produksi minyak mencapai 28.827 barel per hari, sedangkan produksi gas sebanyak 205,776 juta kaki kubik per hari.
"Produksi migas tersebut setara 63 ribu barel per hari," kata Senior Vice Presiden dan General Manager Kodeco, Huang Chunlin, dalam keterangan tertulisnya di Jakarta, Rabu (31/3/2010).
Dia menjelaskan, produksi tertinggi ini tercapai berkat komitmen investasi yang berkelanjutan. Pihaknya yakin dapat mencapai produksi yang ditargetkan pemerintah.
"Selain mengoptimalkan produksi, kami berupaya memberikan nilai yang seimbang untuk para stakeholder dan mengurangi dampak negatif terhadap lingkungan," kata Huang.
Vice President Operasi Imron Asjhari mengatakan tingkat produksi ini tercapai setelah dilakukan pengeboran sumur dan mengaktifkan dua kompressor baru di lapangan KE-38. Kompresor pertama telah berhasil dijalankan. Kompressor berikutnya rencananya akan aktif minggu depan. "Jika berhasil produksi akan meningkat lagi," katanya.
Menurutnya, Kodeco terus melakukan usaha-usaha untuk meningkatkan produksi tahun ini dengan mengebor delapan sumur-sumur baru, termasuk meningkatkan fasilitas proses produksi dengan menggunakan teknologi mutahir.
Saat ini Kodeco mengoperasikan dua blok minyak dan gas bumi, yaitu West Madura PSC dan Poleng TAC. Perusahaan tersebut menyumbang sekira 43 persen dari total pasokan gas bumi, sehingga menjadi produsen dan pemasok gas terbesar di Jawa Timur.
"Produksi migas tersebut setara 63 ribu barel per hari," kata Senior Vice Presiden dan General Manager Kodeco, Huang Chunlin, dalam keterangan tertulisnya di Jakarta, Rabu (31/3/2010).
Dia menjelaskan, produksi tertinggi ini tercapai berkat komitmen investasi yang berkelanjutan. Pihaknya yakin dapat mencapai produksi yang ditargetkan pemerintah.
"Selain mengoptimalkan produksi, kami berupaya memberikan nilai yang seimbang untuk para stakeholder dan mengurangi dampak negatif terhadap lingkungan," kata Huang.
Vice President Operasi Imron Asjhari mengatakan tingkat produksi ini tercapai setelah dilakukan pengeboran sumur dan mengaktifkan dua kompressor baru di lapangan KE-38. Kompresor pertama telah berhasil dijalankan. Kompressor berikutnya rencananya akan aktif minggu depan. "Jika berhasil produksi akan meningkat lagi," katanya.
Menurutnya, Kodeco terus melakukan usaha-usaha untuk meningkatkan produksi tahun ini dengan mengebor delapan sumur-sumur baru, termasuk meningkatkan fasilitas proses produksi dengan menggunakan teknologi mutahir.
Saat ini Kodeco mengoperasikan dua blok minyak dan gas bumi, yaitu West Madura PSC dan Poleng TAC. Perusahaan tersebut menyumbang sekira 43 persen dari total pasokan gas bumi, sehingga menjadi produsen dan pemasok gas terbesar di Jawa Timur.
OSK Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) - Most visible production profiles, accumulate on dips. Hold, TP IDR39,270
ITMG is Indonesia's third largest listed coal company in Indonesia, in term of volume. The company operates five coal mines in Kalimantan, with total reserves of 312m tons in 2008. It produces 20mt in 2009 and plans to ramp output up to 27mt by 2012. It exports 93% of its coal. Banpu is the largest stakeholder with 73.72% stake.
Despite having one of the smallest reserves among the Indonesian coal producers, ITMG has one of the most visible production profiles (2008-11 CAGR of 15%) over the next few years.
ITMG is in a position to acquire to further boost its production volume with over US$400mn in net cash.
ITMG can also surprise further on its reserves and profile as it begins negotiations on a Greenfield project in the East Kalimantan region which could add another 3mt/yr in production.
Target price of IDR 39,270 based on 11.5x 11 PER. Buy below IDR34,148.
Risks: Coal prices fluctuations, regulatory changes in Indonesia, incl expiration of mining licenses, disruptions to operations and/or projects under development, poor weather, acquisition risks.
Despite having one of the smallest reserves among the Indonesian coal producers, ITMG has one of the most visible production profiles (2008-11 CAGR of 15%) over the next few years.
ITMG is in a position to acquire to further boost its production volume with over US$400mn in net cash.
ITMG can also surprise further on its reserves and profile as it begins negotiations on a Greenfield project in the East Kalimantan region which could add another 3mt/yr in production.
Target price of IDR 39,270 based on 11.5x 11 PER. Buy below IDR34,148.
Risks: Coal prices fluctuations, regulatory changes in Indonesia, incl expiration of mining licenses, disruptions to operations and/or projects under development, poor weather, acquisition risks.
OSK Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) - Quality assets and strong operations, accumulate on dips. Hold, TP IDR2,092
Adaro Energy is the holding company of Adaro Indonesia, which is Indonesia's second-largest coal producer with reserves of 870m tons in 2008. The company has an integrated business model that spans mining, mining contractor work, and port services. The company operates the Tutupan coal mine − Indonesia's largest single coal mine − in South Kalimantan. Adaro Indonesia holds a first-generation CCOW contract with the government of Indonesia, expiring in 2022.
Adaro's plan to double its production capacity to 80m tpa by 2013-14 increases earnings leverage from the coal price upcycle.
Potential of acquisition – The company had recently raised roughly US$1.3bn worth of debt at a relatively attractive rate of 7–8%, which would allow them to undertake significant acquisitions, such as the BHP’s Maruwai coking coal asset.
Target price of IDR2,092 based on 12x 11 PER. Buy below IDR1819.
Risks: Coal prices fluctuations, regulatory changes in Indonesia, incl expiration of mining licenses, disruptions to operations and/or projects under development, poor weather, acquisition execution risks.
Adaro's plan to double its production capacity to 80m tpa by 2013-14 increases earnings leverage from the coal price upcycle.
Potential of acquisition – The company had recently raised roughly US$1.3bn worth of debt at a relatively attractive rate of 7–8%, which would allow them to undertake significant acquisitions, such as the BHP’s Maruwai coking coal asset.
Target price of IDR2,092 based on 12x 11 PER. Buy below IDR1819.
Risks: Coal prices fluctuations, regulatory changes in Indonesia, incl expiration of mining licenses, disruptions to operations and/or projects under development, poor weather, acquisition execution risks.
OSK BUMI RESOURCES (BUMI IJ) - Largest indonesian coal miner with attractive valuations. Buy, TP IDR2,690
Bumi Resources is the largest coal company in Indonesia. Each year it produces more than 50MM tons of coal. Its operating companies are Kaltim Prima Coal (KPC), Arutmin Indonesia, Gallo Oil and Enercorp, with the first two being the largest of the subsidiaries. Arutmin operates a 30k ha concession in South Kalimantan with coal production totaling 16.8m tons (75% for export). KPC operates a 90k ha site in East Kalimantan with coal production of 28m tons (95% for export). Bumi has total coal reserves of 2.2b tons at the end of 2008.
As Indonesia's largest coal miner, Bumi will continue to benefit from growing domestic and regional coal demand − Bumi is the largest exporter to the Asian region.
Share price had been depressed on lingering tax issues - ongoing tax probe could result in up to US$1.1b in tax liability if Bumi is found guilty of tax evasion.
Risk of a rights issue – Bumi plans to reduce debt levels by US$1.1bn by June, potentially issue up to 10% non-preemptive shares to a strategic partner, resulting in earnings dilution.
Target price of IDR 2,690 based on 10x 11 PER. Buy below IDR2339.
Risks: Lingering tax issues, high debt levels, coal prices fluctuations, regulatory changes in Indonesia, incl expiration of mining licenses, disruptions to operations and/or projects under development.
As Indonesia's largest coal miner, Bumi will continue to benefit from growing domestic and regional coal demand − Bumi is the largest exporter to the Asian region.
Share price had been depressed on lingering tax issues - ongoing tax probe could result in up to US$1.1b in tax liability if Bumi is found guilty of tax evasion.
Risk of a rights issue – Bumi plans to reduce debt levels by US$1.1bn by June, potentially issue up to 10% non-preemptive shares to a strategic partner, resulting in earnings dilution.
Target price of IDR 2,690 based on 10x 11 PER. Buy below IDR2339.
Risks: Lingering tax issues, high debt levels, coal prices fluctuations, regulatory changes in Indonesia, incl expiration of mining licenses, disruptions to operations and/or projects under development.
Deutsche Bank Tabungan Negara - Leader in home financing; initiate with Buy, TP Rp1,700
Our top pick for small-cap banks; Buy with TP of Rp1,700
We initiate coverage on BTN, Indonesia’s largest mortgage lender with 25% market share, with a Buy rating and a TP of Rp1,700. We believe BTN will be one of the primary beneficiaries of rising home ownership as per capita income is projected to double again in 5 years to around US$5,000. Rising property prices reduce NPL risks while asset recoveries have outpaced loan write-offs in the past four years. Funding is a risk given BTN's high LDR over 100%, but it is looking for asset securitization and distribution channel expansion.
Rising income levels support higher home ownership
BTN is a primary beneficiary of expanding home ownership (from 50%) on rising incomes. Indeed, GDP per capita is expected to double in five years to US$5,000. Also, the government’s plan to develop 1,000 housing towers for the low-tomiddle income segment with average pricing of US$20,000 bodes well for BTN’s target market. Low consumer debt to GDP of 8% implies ability to borrow.
Earnings to double within two years
We have projected a two-year earnings CAGR of 44%. ROAE is expected to rise to 12.4% in 2010F and 16.4% in 2011F from a low of 11.5% in 2009 (post capitalraising). Our projection is conservative relative to management’s NP guidance of Rp750bn in 2010 and Rp1,150bn in 2011 – implying ROAE of 16% in 2011. TP Rp1,700; risks are falling property values, higher funding costs and NPLs We derive our target price from a Gordon Growth model (see p. 4 for details). Risks are falling property values and the income levels of BTN’s low-to-middle segment customers; and high LDR exposing the bank to fluctuating deposit costs.
We initiate coverage on BTN, Indonesia’s largest mortgage lender with 25% market share, with a Buy rating and a TP of Rp1,700. We believe BTN will be one of the primary beneficiaries of rising home ownership as per capita income is projected to double again in 5 years to around US$5,000. Rising property prices reduce NPL risks while asset recoveries have outpaced loan write-offs in the past four years. Funding is a risk given BTN's high LDR over 100%, but it is looking for asset securitization and distribution channel expansion.
Rising income levels support higher home ownership
BTN is a primary beneficiary of expanding home ownership (from 50%) on rising incomes. Indeed, GDP per capita is expected to double in five years to US$5,000. Also, the government’s plan to develop 1,000 housing towers for the low-tomiddle income segment with average pricing of US$20,000 bodes well for BTN’s target market. Low consumer debt to GDP of 8% implies ability to borrow.
Earnings to double within two years
We have projected a two-year earnings CAGR of 44%. ROAE is expected to rise to 12.4% in 2010F and 16.4% in 2011F from a low of 11.5% in 2009 (post capitalraising). Our projection is conservative relative to management’s NP guidance of Rp750bn in 2010 and Rp1,150bn in 2011 – implying ROAE of 16% in 2011. TP Rp1,700; risks are falling property values, higher funding costs and NPLs We derive our target price from a Gordon Growth model (see p. 4 for details). Risks are falling property values and the income levels of BTN’s low-to-middle segment customers; and high LDR exposing the bank to fluctuating deposit costs.
CLSA Adaro Energy - Partnering with BHP in Maruwai - BUY
Adaro Energy – Partnering with BHP in Maruwai - BUY. Please see comments by analyst Olie:
BHP teaming up with Adaro. BHP Billiton has just announced that it has entered into a binding agreements to create a joint venture for its Indonesian Coal Project with a subsidiary of Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ), which has agreed to acquire a 25% interest in the JV with BHP Billiton retaining 75% interests.
Sizeable metallurgical coal resources. This JV covers seven Coal Contracts of Work (CCoWs) located in East and Central Kalimantan in Indonesia, with estimated undeveloped metallurgical and thermal coal resources of 774m tonnes. Note that this will be the first metallurgical coal project in Indonesia.
Details are not yet available. We do not know, at the moment, on how much would Adaro have to pay for this 25% interest in the JV nor are there details on development costs and production scheduling.
This is overall positive for Adaro. The company would be the only coal company that has exposure to metallurgical coal. Adaro should be able to lend its experience in dealing with logistical issues in South and Central Kalimantan while helping the project also in dealing with the local governments and local people. This deal confirms the company strategic direction to acquire world class Greenfield deposit rather than operating mine. Adaro remains our preferred pick in the sector and retain our BUY rating.
BHP teaming up with Adaro. BHP Billiton has just announced that it has entered into a binding agreements to create a joint venture for its Indonesian Coal Project with a subsidiary of Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ), which has agreed to acquire a 25% interest in the JV with BHP Billiton retaining 75% interests.
Sizeable metallurgical coal resources. This JV covers seven Coal Contracts of Work (CCoWs) located in East and Central Kalimantan in Indonesia, with estimated undeveloped metallurgical and thermal coal resources of 774m tonnes. Note that this will be the first metallurgical coal project in Indonesia.
Details are not yet available. We do not know, at the moment, on how much would Adaro have to pay for this 25% interest in the JV nor are there details on development costs and production scheduling.
This is overall positive for Adaro. The company would be the only coal company that has exposure to metallurgical coal. Adaro should be able to lend its experience in dealing with logistical issues in South and Central Kalimantan while helping the project also in dealing with the local governments and local people. This deal confirms the company strategic direction to acquire world class Greenfield deposit rather than operating mine. Adaro remains our preferred pick in the sector and retain our BUY rating.
OSK PGAS Up is the only way
New gas price
Following the company’s meeting with the Ministry of Industries’ officials and Industry Associations, PGAS announced that by April 1, 2010 it will start new gas pricing for all industrial and commercial customers. New gas price will be equivalent to about US$6.36/mmbtu (or US$4.30/mmbtu + Rp743/m3). The new gas price reflected about 15.6% increase from US$5.5/mmbtu. This will be applied for customers with monthly usage of more than 300,000 m3.
Location and volume-based pricing
The adjustment will be in accordance to the location of the customers and the monthly gas utilization, PGAS said. We are yet to obtain the details of tariff per
location. Note that the company’s SBU distribution area 1 consisting of Banten, West Java, and Jakarta is its largest customers accounting for 70.6% of total 9M09 gas distribution.
Room for adjustment
Given the different cost of gas from the LNG-sourced and the non-LNG, we envisage room for price adjustment. PGAS has planned of LNG receiving terminals in West Java (team up with Pertamina) and North Sumatra (100%) while we also understand that Pertamina may build LNG receiving terminal in East Java.
FY09 results
We expect FY09F net profit to hit Rp4,903b (FY08: Rp634b) and core profit of Rp4,041b (FY08: Rp2,448b) on revenues of Rp17,145b (FY08: Rp12,794b). At the meantime, market consensus called for FY09F revenues and net profit of Rp17,321b and Rp5,735b, respectively.
Maintain BUY, target price upped to Rp4,850
Factoring the new gas price, we therefore raise our year-end TP to Rp4,850 and maintain our BUY recommendation on PGAS. Starting on April 2010, we will transfer our coverage to Andrey Wijaya.
Following the company’s meeting with the Ministry of Industries’ officials and Industry Associations, PGAS announced that by April 1, 2010 it will start new gas pricing for all industrial and commercial customers. New gas price will be equivalent to about US$6.36/mmbtu (or US$4.30/mmbtu + Rp743/m3). The new gas price reflected about 15.6% increase from US$5.5/mmbtu. This will be applied for customers with monthly usage of more than 300,000 m3.
Location and volume-based pricing
The adjustment will be in accordance to the location of the customers and the monthly gas utilization, PGAS said. We are yet to obtain the details of tariff per
location. Note that the company’s SBU distribution area 1 consisting of Banten, West Java, and Jakarta is its largest customers accounting for 70.6% of total 9M09 gas distribution.
Room for adjustment
Given the different cost of gas from the LNG-sourced and the non-LNG, we envisage room for price adjustment. PGAS has planned of LNG receiving terminals in West Java (team up with Pertamina) and North Sumatra (100%) while we also understand that Pertamina may build LNG receiving terminal in East Java.
FY09 results
We expect FY09F net profit to hit Rp4,903b (FY08: Rp634b) and core profit of Rp4,041b (FY08: Rp2,448b) on revenues of Rp17,145b (FY08: Rp12,794b). At the meantime, market consensus called for FY09F revenues and net profit of Rp17,321b and Rp5,735b, respectively.
Maintain BUY, target price upped to Rp4,850
Factoring the new gas price, we therefore raise our year-end TP to Rp4,850 and maintain our BUY recommendation on PGAS. Starting on April 2010, we will transfer our coverage to Andrey Wijaya.
Morgan Stanley - INTERNATIONAL NICKEL INDONESIA (INCO.JK): RAISING PT ON HIGHER NICKEL PRICE FORECAST: MAINTAIN OW
What's Changed
Price Target: Rp4,500 to Rp5,500
2010e/11e EPS : +24%/34%
Higher PT: Morgan Stanley's commodities team have published their latest quarterly playbook, in which they have raised their nickel price forecasts by 14-27% over 2010-15. Please see Morgan Stanley's "Global Metals Playbook -2Q10:Navigating liquidity withdrawal, policy tightening and a stronger US dollar", for more details. On the back of these higher nickel price forecasts and some cost adjustments, we raise our 2010-11e EPS for PT Inco by 24%/34% and the PT to Rp5,500.
More positive on nickel: We expect the higher nickel prices to sustain and the market to be in deficit for 2010 from the surplus that we previously forecast.We believe the recovery is well supported by improving fundamentals from: 1) recovering stainless production, 2) continued strikes in Vale's Sudbury mines, and 3) delay in Vale's Goro major nickel project.
Well positioned to leverage on higher prices: PT Inco is a nickel pure play whose earnings are highly sensitive to nickel prices - we estimate every US$1/lb increase in nickel prices could add US$0.55 or 15% to our revised 2010e EPS. If we apply the spot nickel price of US$10/lb, we could see our 2010e EPS increase by 24% to US$0.04. Although we have raised our cost assumptions, we believe the uplift in nickel price should be more than enough to cover the higher costs.
Attractive valuation: Our new 2011e EPS is 35% above consensus and we forecast PT Inco's ROE to recover to mid-cycle levels of ~25% on higher nickel prices and volume by 2011-12 from the cycle trough of 11% in 2009. Despite this recovery, valuation is below MSCI Indonesia at less than 12x P/E and a dividend yield of ~5%, implying 30% earnings growth p.a. in 2009-11.
Price Target: Rp4,500 to Rp5,500
2010e/11e EPS : +24%/34%
Higher PT: Morgan Stanley's commodities team have published their latest quarterly playbook, in which they have raised their nickel price forecasts by 14-27% over 2010-15. Please see Morgan Stanley's "Global Metals Playbook -2Q10:Navigating liquidity withdrawal, policy tightening and a stronger US dollar", for more details. On the back of these higher nickel price forecasts and some cost adjustments, we raise our 2010-11e EPS for PT Inco by 24%/34% and the PT to Rp5,500.
More positive on nickel: We expect the higher nickel prices to sustain and the market to be in deficit for 2010 from the surplus that we previously forecast.We believe the recovery is well supported by improving fundamentals from: 1) recovering stainless production, 2) continued strikes in Vale's Sudbury mines, and 3) delay in Vale's Goro major nickel project.
Well positioned to leverage on higher prices: PT Inco is a nickel pure play whose earnings are highly sensitive to nickel prices - we estimate every US$1/lb increase in nickel prices could add US$0.55 or 15% to our revised 2010e EPS. If we apply the spot nickel price of US$10/lb, we could see our 2010e EPS increase by 24% to US$0.04. Although we have raised our cost assumptions, we believe the uplift in nickel price should be more than enough to cover the higher costs.
Attractive valuation: Our new 2011e EPS is 35% above consensus and we forecast PT Inco's ROE to recover to mid-cycle levels of ~25% on higher nickel prices and volume by 2011-12 from the cycle trough of 11% in 2009. Despite this recovery, valuation is below MSCI Indonesia at less than 12x P/E and a dividend yield of ~5%, implying 30% earnings growth p.a. in 2009-11.
DBS Timah: Buy; Rp2,400; TP Under Review; TINS IJ
4Q09 net profit below expectations
Timah (TINS) reported 4Q09 net profit of Rp147bn (+15% q-o-q), bringing full-year FY09 net profit to Rp318bn (-76% y-o-y). This came short of our Rp433bn estimate, mostly dragged by FX losses of Rp120bn booked in FY09. Excluding FX losses, FY09 net profit would have been c.Rp382bn (net of tax), or c.12% below our expectations due to lower-than-expected net interest income.
Operating profit nevertheless exceeded our expectations, driven by higher-than-expected revenues which more than offset the lower-than-expected margins. On yearly basis, revenues were still down by 15% y-o-y, mostly dragged by the dip in refined tin prices during FY09. TINS has yet to reveal its full-year production volumes.
Balance sheet turned stronger with net cash position in 4Q09, from 8.0% net gearing in 3Q09. We attribute this to stronger cash balance which more than doubled q-o-q to Rp502bn as of end-4Q09 (despite of debt repayments), likely as a result of stronger operational results.
Timah (TINS) reported 4Q09 net profit of Rp147bn (+15% q-o-q), bringing full-year FY09 net profit to Rp318bn (-76% y-o-y). This came short of our Rp433bn estimate, mostly dragged by FX losses of Rp120bn booked in FY09. Excluding FX losses, FY09 net profit would have been c.Rp382bn (net of tax), or c.12% below our expectations due to lower-than-expected net interest income.
Operating profit nevertheless exceeded our expectations, driven by higher-than-expected revenues which more than offset the lower-than-expected margins. On yearly basis, revenues were still down by 15% y-o-y, mostly dragged by the dip in refined tin prices during FY09. TINS has yet to reveal its full-year production volumes.
Balance sheet turned stronger with net cash position in 4Q09, from 8.0% net gearing in 3Q09. We attribute this to stronger cash balance which more than doubled q-o-q to Rp502bn as of end-4Q09 (despite of debt repayments), likely as a result of stronger operational results.
DBS Perusahaan Gas Negara: Buy; Rp4,175; TP 4,200; PGAS IJ
High gas prices for industrial and commercial users
PGN announced yesterday that new gas pricing for all industrial and commercial customers will increase effective 1 Apr 2010. The adjustment is based on location of customers and monthly gas utilization. On a nationwide basis, gas prices for customers utilizing more than 300,000 m3/months will become US$4.30/MMBTU + Rp743/m3 or equivalent to c.US$6.36/MMBTU (US$1=Rp9,400). For West Jawa , the increase is as follows:
a. Gas selling price for customers using more than 300,000 m3/month is US$4,30/MMBTU+Rp750/m3 or equivalent to approximately US$6.37 /MMBTU
b. Application of surcharge amounting to 300% for the volume exceeding maximum contract
c. Payment guarantee to cover 2 months worth of gas usage for all customers
The price increase for PGN came in within our expectation but the quantum of increase, average at 15% on a nationwide basis, came in above our estimates. We estimate that the price increase will raise our FY10-12F net profit forecast by between 12-18%, and enhance our DCF-derived target price by 15% to Rp4,800. We will finalise our earnings forecasts and new target price after PGN’s FY09 results announcement this afternoon.
We continue to favour PGAS for volume and price-led growth. Valuation is undemanding at 12x FY11F PE against 44% ROE, FY09-12GF CAGR of 13% and net yield of 4%. The growing profitability and improving FCF yields (7%) is likely to translate into higher dividends. Maintain Buy.
PGN announced yesterday that new gas pricing for all industrial and commercial customers will increase effective 1 Apr 2010. The adjustment is based on location of customers and monthly gas utilization. On a nationwide basis, gas prices for customers utilizing more than 300,000 m3/months will become US$4.30/MMBTU + Rp743/m3 or equivalent to c.US$6.36/MMBTU (US$1=Rp9,400). For West Jawa , the increase is as follows:
a. Gas selling price for customers using more than 300,000 m3/month is US$4,30/MMBTU+Rp750/m3 or equivalent to approximately US$6.37 /MMBTU
b. Application of surcharge amounting to 300% for the volume exceeding maximum contract
c. Payment guarantee to cover 2 months worth of gas usage for all customers
The price increase for PGN came in within our expectation but the quantum of increase, average at 15% on a nationwide basis, came in above our estimates. We estimate that the price increase will raise our FY10-12F net profit forecast by between 12-18%, and enhance our DCF-derived target price by 15% to Rp4,800. We will finalise our earnings forecasts and new target price after PGN’s FY09 results announcement this afternoon.
We continue to favour PGAS for volume and price-led growth. Valuation is undemanding at 12x FY11F PE against 44% ROE, FY09-12GF CAGR of 13% and net yield of 4%. The growing profitability and improving FCF yields (7%) is likely to translate into higher dividends. Maintain Buy.
DBS Bank Rakyat Indo: Buy; Rp8,250; TP Rp10,400; BBRI IJ From strength to strength
At a Glance
• FY09 result was within our estimate, but 7% above consensus
• Strong growth drivers expected to spill-over into FY10F
• Maintain Buy and Rp10,400 TP
Comment on Result
4Q09 net profit of Rp2.0trn brought full year net profit to Rp7.3trn. NIM remained strong at 9.2% despite competitive pressures. Loans grew 7% in 4Q09, leading to full year loan growth of 28%, driven by microcredit financial and small commercial loans. Corporate loans also grew, but within the limit of 20% to total loans. Deposits surged 16% in 4Q09 (mainly CASA), bringing FY09 deposit growth to 27%. CASA to total deposits peaked at 60% and BBRI intends to maintain that ratio. Loan-to-deposit ratio fell to 80.2%, but with strong loan growth ahead, it is expected to rise to 85%. Asset quality improved with gross NPL ratio falling to 3.5%. We note that the
NPL stress came from loans to the ‘medium segment’ but BBRI opines that this category is crucial for future cross selling prospects. To limit NPLs in the ‘medium segment’, BBRI plans to: (i) restructure those loans across a few regions, (ii) centralize loan disbursements back to head office, and (iii) gradually write-off NPLs where necessary. BBRI appears to have managed its operating costs well despite expanding outlets and branches, with cost-to-income ratio at 45%.
We expect BBRI’s NIM to remain stable in FY10F as cost of funds is likely to improve with term deposits re-priced lower. BBRI’s loan growth target for FY10 is 20-25% (DBSV: 20%) and for deposit 20% (DBSV: 20%). Total CAR including Rp2trn sub-debt issued in Dec09 (to be included in 1Q10 numbers) will increase to 14.3%.
Recommendation
Maintain Buy and Rp10,400 TP based on the Gordon Growth Model with implied 4x FY10 P/BV. BBRI’s prospects remain healthy with strong NIM (albeit declining), and its ROE profile remains among the best thanks to high yield microcredit loans, which remains BBRI’s forte.
• FY09 result was within our estimate, but 7% above consensus
• Strong growth drivers expected to spill-over into FY10F
• Maintain Buy and Rp10,400 TP
Comment on Result
4Q09 net profit of Rp2.0trn brought full year net profit to Rp7.3trn. NIM remained strong at 9.2% despite competitive pressures. Loans grew 7% in 4Q09, leading to full year loan growth of 28%, driven by microcredit financial and small commercial loans. Corporate loans also grew, but within the limit of 20% to total loans. Deposits surged 16% in 4Q09 (mainly CASA), bringing FY09 deposit growth to 27%. CASA to total deposits peaked at 60% and BBRI intends to maintain that ratio. Loan-to-deposit ratio fell to 80.2%, but with strong loan growth ahead, it is expected to rise to 85%. Asset quality improved with gross NPL ratio falling to 3.5%. We note that the
NPL stress came from loans to the ‘medium segment’ but BBRI opines that this category is crucial for future cross selling prospects. To limit NPLs in the ‘medium segment’, BBRI plans to: (i) restructure those loans across a few regions, (ii) centralize loan disbursements back to head office, and (iii) gradually write-off NPLs where necessary. BBRI appears to have managed its operating costs well despite expanding outlets and branches, with cost-to-income ratio at 45%.
We expect BBRI’s NIM to remain stable in FY10F as cost of funds is likely to improve with term deposits re-priced lower. BBRI’s loan growth target for FY10 is 20-25% (DBSV: 20%) and for deposit 20% (DBSV: 20%). Total CAR including Rp2trn sub-debt issued in Dec09 (to be included in 1Q10 numbers) will increase to 14.3%.
Recommendation
Maintain Buy and Rp10,400 TP based on the Gordon Growth Model with implied 4x FY10 P/BV. BBRI’s prospects remain healthy with strong NIM (albeit declining), and its ROE profile remains among the best thanks to high yield microcredit loans, which remains BBRI’s forte.
CLSA Bakrie Sumatera (UNSP IJ) FY2009 results
Revenue and operating profit came in at Rp2.3tn and Rp470.3bn , -21% and -38% YoY mainly due to lower CPO price as CPO production relatively flat compare to last year at 156m tonnes. Net profit for full year 2009 is Rp253bn, increased by 46% YoY boosted by Rp138bn of forex gain (vs. –Rp243bn last year). However, this only account for 73% of our full year forecast due to one-off Rp83.5bn loss on written-off business development project.
CLSA Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ) good results
Ciputra Development booked a net profit of Rp136bn, down 32% YoY, but 30% above our estimate and 11% above consensus. Company also booked a gain on investment sales of Rp27bn, stripping this out, net profit came at Rp109bn, which was 5.8% above our expectation, and 10% below consensus. Sales was booked at Rp1,332bn, 7% above our expectation, and the company also booked a lower operating expenses, hence EBIT margin came at 21.2%, above our expectation of 18.8%. The consensus was also expecting a 18.8% EBIT margin. Maintain a BUY on CTRA, with Tp Rp1,050/sh. Now trading at 30% discount to our NAV assumption.
CLSA Summarecon Agung (SMRA IJ) good results
Summarecon booked a good FY09 result, with net profit increased by 78% to Rp167bn, this was 2% above our expectation and 11% above consensus expectation. Gross profit was booked at Rp604bn, implying a strong 50% gross margin. While sales booked was 6% lower than FY08, the improvement in gross margin and lower operating expenses booked, had caused net profit to climb to Rp167bn. SMRA booked a strong marketing sales last year at Rp1.2tn, thus a portion of this will be booked this year. We maintain a BUY on SMRA, with TP: Rp1,000/sh. Now trading at 36% discount to our NAV assumption.
CLSA Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (CPIN IJ) reported a record high FY09
2009 sales grew 10.2% YoY but gross profit grew by 64.5% on the back of collapsing input prices. Despite the lower input prices, the company managed to increase ASP throughout the year 2009 due to its strong pricing power.
As a result, 2009 net income jumped 535% YoY, partly due to forex exposure. FY09 result beats consensus by a hefty 17.3% as the company reported a better than expectation 4Q09 numbers.
4Q09 usually is the slowest quarter in terms of business cyclicality; however in this time round we saw a very strong 4Q numbers as margins continue to expand. Gross margin surged up to 23% in 4Q09 due to the low corn and soybean meal prices.
The company expects a slight margin contraction in 2010 due to a recovering commodity prices. Up to this date, we have not seen any sudden movement of commodity prices and the company expects the commodity price-growth to remain stable throughout this year. Corn prices have even moved down at the beginning of this year.
Management has been able to maintain prices and would likely to do so for the remaining of the year, which means this year we can expect a stellar performance too.
Despite the stock’s well performance over the last week, CPIN is still trading cheap at 6.2x 2010 P/E.
As a result, 2009 net income jumped 535% YoY, partly due to forex exposure. FY09 result beats consensus by a hefty 17.3% as the company reported a better than expectation 4Q09 numbers.
4Q09 usually is the slowest quarter in terms of business cyclicality; however in this time round we saw a very strong 4Q numbers as margins continue to expand. Gross margin surged up to 23% in 4Q09 due to the low corn and soybean meal prices.
The company expects a slight margin contraction in 2010 due to a recovering commodity prices. Up to this date, we have not seen any sudden movement of commodity prices and the company expects the commodity price-growth to remain stable throughout this year. Corn prices have even moved down at the beginning of this year.
Management has been able to maintain prices and would likely to do so for the remaining of the year, which means this year we can expect a stellar performance too.
Despite the stock’s well performance over the last week, CPIN is still trading cheap at 6.2x 2010 P/E.
CLSA Bank Rakyat (BBRI IJ) ahead of our and consensus expectations
BRI released FY09 results after the market close yesterday and the headline number beat our estimates by 5% and consensus by 7%. We are maintaining our Outperform rating and will be revising up our 2010 estimates due to higher than anticipated loan growth and lower provisioning expectations in 2010
FY09 earnings of Rp. 7.3tn were up 23% YoY, however after adjusting for forex gains of 700bn, earnings were below our estimates.
BRI continues to take market share on lending and deposit gathering, but credit issues remain a challenge and with BMRI and BCA moving into growth mode we believe the deposit gains will be difficult to maintain going forward.
NIM of 9.14% represents a 100bp decrease YoY. We expect the NIM to come down slightly to 9% in 2010 as the lending mix continues to move away from core micro business. Corporate loans currently stand at 20% of total, lower yielding commercial continue to increase as well.
NPL's improved by 40bps on the back of a write down of Rp2.5tn. The medium size portfolio continues to pose problems with NPL's rising to 12%+. With PSAK 55 coming into play for 2010, we expect provision write backs at BRI, and upwards earnings revisions. The bank has reserve level (LLR/Loans north of 5.5%.
The CIR reflects that the bank is understaffed and will need to higher new employees (upwards of 16k in 2010). This will likely slow earnings growth in 2010.
INVESTMENT CONCLUSION: We remain at OUTPERFORM on BRI, we believe BMRI and BCA provide better options and less likelihood to disappoint. BRI remains the best value play in the banking sector at 10x 2011 estimates.
FY09 earnings of Rp. 7.3tn were up 23% YoY, however after adjusting for forex gains of 700bn, earnings were below our estimates.
BRI continues to take market share on lending and deposit gathering, but credit issues remain a challenge and with BMRI and BCA moving into growth mode we believe the deposit gains will be difficult to maintain going forward.
NIM of 9.14% represents a 100bp decrease YoY. We expect the NIM to come down slightly to 9% in 2010 as the lending mix continues to move away from core micro business. Corporate loans currently stand at 20% of total, lower yielding commercial continue to increase as well.
NPL's improved by 40bps on the back of a write down of Rp2.5tn. The medium size portfolio continues to pose problems with NPL's rising to 12%+. With PSAK 55 coming into play for 2010, we expect provision write backs at BRI, and upwards earnings revisions. The bank has reserve level (LLR/Loans north of 5.5%.
The CIR reflects that the bank is understaffed and will need to higher new employees (upwards of 16k in 2010). This will likely slow earnings growth in 2010.
INVESTMENT CONCLUSION: We remain at OUTPERFORM on BRI, we believe BMRI and BCA provide better options and less likelihood to disappoint. BRI remains the best value play in the banking sector at 10x 2011 estimates.
CLSA Delta Dunia, rights issue + Berau acquisition
After a roller coaster ride and lots of market chatter on M&A, Delta Dunia released an official statement last night. Delta announced plans to do a share swap with Recapital and do right issue to acquire Berau Coal. Rights issue is around US$1.1bn (market cap is US$
The funds raised through the rights issue will be used to buy an exchangeable bonds from Recapital which will be swapped into shares of Berau Energy next year around Arpil 2011. Conversion price will be announced at a later time. Berau is a good asset, the fifth largest coal producer in the country and will most likely help Delta to secure more deals from KPC and Arutmin.
Key highlights:
The potential deal is complex, requiring investors to subscribe to the rights without full picture on acquisition price for Berau. Note also that rights proceed will be used to subscribe mandatory exchangeable bonds, issued by Recapital, exchangeable to Berau Energy shares in 12 months.
Recapital could become a significant shareholder of Delta Dunia, hence there is a potential change in control. Whether there will be a change in management would remain to be seen.
The plan to use Berau IPO price as reference for acquisition, might minimize question on pricing. Note also the rights issue is priced at Rp1,400, hence Recapital is buying Delta Dunia at the same placement price in end of last year.
We would like to point out is that Berau Coal has a good coal asset, given its sizeable reserves and production and decent profitability.
Recapital, given its relationship, might also be able to help Buma securing a bit of more works for Bakrie Group’s coal mines that include KPC, Arutmin, or other coal mines like Pendopo and FBS.
Our concerns, however, centred around potential change in control at Delta Dunia and change strategy from contractor to mine owners.
We are still reviewing our recommendation on the company.
The funds raised through the rights issue will be used to buy an exchangeable bonds from Recapital which will be swapped into shares of Berau Energy next year around Arpil 2011. Conversion price will be announced at a later time. Berau is a good asset, the fifth largest coal producer in the country and will most likely help Delta to secure more deals from KPC and Arutmin.
Key highlights:
The potential deal is complex, requiring investors to subscribe to the rights without full picture on acquisition price for Berau. Note also that rights proceed will be used to subscribe mandatory exchangeable bonds, issued by Recapital, exchangeable to Berau Energy shares in 12 months.
Recapital could become a significant shareholder of Delta Dunia, hence there is a potential change in control. Whether there will be a change in management would remain to be seen.
The plan to use Berau IPO price as reference for acquisition, might minimize question on pricing. Note also the rights issue is priced at Rp1,400, hence Recapital is buying Delta Dunia at the same placement price in end of last year.
We would like to point out is that Berau Coal has a good coal asset, given its sizeable reserves and production and decent profitability.
Recapital, given its relationship, might also be able to help Buma securing a bit of more works for Bakrie Group’s coal mines that include KPC, Arutmin, or other coal mines like Pendopo and FBS.
Our concerns, however, centred around potential change in control at Delta Dunia and change strategy from contractor to mine owners.
We are still reviewing our recommendation on the company.
CLSA Today is a BIG DAY for PGAS
Finally, the price hike is confirmed and the magnitude came in above our expectation. From April 1st, PGAS would increase gas prices nationwide from US$5.5/mmbtu to roughly US$6.5/mmbtu (assuming exchange rate of Rp9,100/USD). This is a 18% price increase. We have assumed US$6.1 in our forecast. What is the most important to note is for customers taking gas above daily contracted volumes, PGAS can add surcharge from 50% to a whopping 300%, meaning customers have to pay gas price of anywhere between US$8-19/mmbtu. This is massive and highlights the kind of pricing power PGAS has given its effective monopoly status and the chronic shortage of gas in this country. Industries desperately needs gas period. They are willing to pay as long as its still at a discount to diesel . Current diesel prices are more than US$18-19/mmbtu.
Swati's above consensus forecast of a sudden look conservative. BUY Tp5,500
Comment for Swati:
PGas has pricing power as gas prices are significant discount to diesel prices even for a gas price of US$6.5/mmbtu. Current diesel prices are more than US$18-19/mmbtu.
While PGas doesn’t need any prior government approval in theory it does informally discusses with the government before increasing prices. Support from downstream regulator, Minister of oil and gas for increase in prices suggest that PGas should eventually get back its Conoco Philips volumes which have been diverted to Chevron at the instruction of upstream regulator (BP Migas).
The current crisis on gas shortage re-enforces incredible demand for gas in Indonesia and should only encourage the Government support for PGas to find new gas sources as quickly as possible.
After lot of resistance from industries and noise on price increases PGas has been able to get price increases. This is how Indonesia works and we (and PGas) are optimistic that the issue with Conoco Philips will also be resolved sooner or later.
In worst case scenario, PGas doesn’t get back its Conoco Phillips volumes and doesn’t get any other gas sources as well we expect about 3-5% earnings downgrade. Nevertheless the stock is still very cheap trading at 14.4x 2010CL P/E. It offers 50% ROE and 20% ROA, highest in CLSA power sector coverage. Reiterate a conviction buy on PGas.
Swati's above consensus forecast of a sudden look conservative. BUY Tp5,500
Comment for Swati:
PGas has pricing power as gas prices are significant discount to diesel prices even for a gas price of US$6.5/mmbtu. Current diesel prices are more than US$18-19/mmbtu.
While PGas doesn’t need any prior government approval in theory it does informally discusses with the government before increasing prices. Support from downstream regulator, Minister of oil and gas for increase in prices suggest that PGas should eventually get back its Conoco Philips volumes which have been diverted to Chevron at the instruction of upstream regulator (BP Migas).
The current crisis on gas shortage re-enforces incredible demand for gas in Indonesia and should only encourage the Government support for PGas to find new gas sources as quickly as possible.
After lot of resistance from industries and noise on price increases PGas has been able to get price increases. This is how Indonesia works and we (and PGas) are optimistic that the issue with Conoco Philips will also be resolved sooner or later.
In worst case scenario, PGas doesn’t get back its Conoco Phillips volumes and doesn’t get any other gas sources as well we expect about 3-5% earnings downgrade. Nevertheless the stock is still very cheap trading at 14.4x 2010CL P/E. It offers 50% ROE and 20% ROA, highest in CLSA power sector coverage. Reiterate a conviction buy on PGas.
Agreement between PGN and Industry Association on Gas Sales Contract
Dear PGAS shareholders, investors and analysts,
A meeting was held today (March 30, 2010) in the Ministry of Industries between the Ministries Officials, Industry Associations and PGN led by the Director General of Agro and Chemical Industries and attended by the Director General of Metal Industries, Machineries and Textile. The meeting was then closed by Mr. Moch. S. Hidayat, the Minister of Industries.
In the occasion, the Industry Associations and PGN come into agreement on the adjustment of gas sales price, the application of surcharge and guarantee of payment. For the industrial and commercial customers in West Java Area, the terms are as follows.
Gas selling price for customers using more than 300,000 m3/month is US$4,30/MMBTU+Rp750/m3 or equivalent to approximately US$6,37 /MMBTU (US$1=Rp9,400)
Application of surcharge amounting to 300% for the volume exceeding maximum contract
Payment guarantee to cover 2 months worth of gas usage for all customers
Starting from April 1, 2010 PGN will start new gas pricing for all industrial and commercial customers. The adjustment is in accordance to the location of the customers and the monthly gas utilization.
In average on a nationwide bases the gas prices for customers utilizing more than 300,000 m3/months will become US$4,30/MMBTU + Rp743/m3 or equivalent to approximately US$6,36/MMBTU (US$1=Rp9,400). Detailed gas prices have been communicated to customers in all locations.
Regards,
Investor Relations
PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk
A meeting was held today (March 30, 2010) in the Ministry of Industries between the Ministries Officials, Industry Associations and PGN led by the Director General of Agro and Chemical Industries and attended by the Director General of Metal Industries, Machineries and Textile. The meeting was then closed by Mr. Moch. S. Hidayat, the Minister of Industries.
In the occasion, the Industry Associations and PGN come into agreement on the adjustment of gas sales price, the application of surcharge and guarantee of payment. For the industrial and commercial customers in West Java Area, the terms are as follows.
Gas selling price for customers using more than 300,000 m3/month is US$4,30/MMBTU+Rp750/m3 or equivalent to approximately US$6,37 /MMBTU (US$1=Rp9,400)
Application of surcharge amounting to 300% for the volume exceeding maximum contract
Payment guarantee to cover 2 months worth of gas usage for all customers
Starting from April 1, 2010 PGN will start new gas pricing for all industrial and commercial customers. The adjustment is in accordance to the location of the customers and the monthly gas utilization.
In average on a nationwide bases the gas prices for customers utilizing more than 300,000 m3/months will become US$4,30/MMBTU + Rp743/m3 or equivalent to approximately US$6,36/MMBTU (US$1=Rp9,400). Detailed gas prices have been communicated to customers in all locations.
Regards,
Investor Relations
PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk
Mandiri Sekuritas Delta Dunia Makmur: has signed non-binding agreement with Recapital for the acquisition of Berau Coal (DOID, Rp1,180, not rated)
In a press release yesterday, DOID signed a non-binding term sheet with Recapital Investment for DOID to acquire a majority interest in Berau Coal.
The proposed transaction will be conducted as follows:
a.) DOID to subscribe to a Mandatory Exchangeable Bond (MEB) issued by an affiliate of Recapital (exchangeable in shares of Berau at the the value achieved by Berau Energy in a qualified international IPO, expected in April 2011).
b.) To finance the MEB, DOID will conduct a rights issue for some Rp10tn (US$1.1bn) at a price of Rp1,400/share. Under the term sheet, Recapital will acquire a substantial interest in DOID, and will act as standby buyer for the entire rights
issue
c.) Recapital, (currently owning 100% of Berau) will swap a majority of its Berau shares to DOID in exchange for a substantial shareholding in DOID.
We do not have a rating on the stock, which currently trades at PER10F 8.1x, based on consensus estimates.
The proposed transaction will be conducted as follows:
a.) DOID to subscribe to a Mandatory Exchangeable Bond (MEB) issued by an affiliate of Recapital (exchangeable in shares of Berau at the the value achieved by Berau Energy in a qualified international IPO, expected in April 2011).
b.) To finance the MEB, DOID will conduct a rights issue for some Rp10tn (US$1.1bn) at a price of Rp1,400/share. Under the term sheet, Recapital will acquire a substantial interest in DOID, and will act as standby buyer for the entire rights
issue
c.) Recapital, (currently owning 100% of Berau) will swap a majority of its Berau shares to DOID in exchange for a substantial shareholding in DOID.
We do not have a rating on the stock, which currently trades at PER10F 8.1x, based on consensus estimates.
Mandiri Sekuritas Bayan Resources:: Net profit below our expectations and consensus (BYAN, Rp6100, Under-review)
BYAN booked revenue FY09 of Rp7.8tn (+59%yoy) below our expectation but above consensus estimates. Production of coal in 2009 is estimated to reach 9.5Mt (+61%yoy).
Based on the guidance of 2010 release by the company earlier, average coal selling price in 2009 at US$60-61/Mt lower than in 2008 of US$74.9/Mt.
The company target coal production in 2010 become 10Mt lower than initial estimate of 13.8-15.1Mt.
Net income of FY2009 was at Rp136bn (+558% yoy) this figure is below our and consensus estimate.
We are reviewing our estimation due to the results.
Based on the guidance of 2010 release by the company earlier, average coal selling price in 2009 at US$60-61/Mt lower than in 2008 of US$74.9/Mt.
The company target coal production in 2010 become 10Mt lower than initial estimate of 13.8-15.1Mt.
Net income of FY2009 was at Rp136bn (+558% yoy) this figure is below our and consensus estimate.
We are reviewing our estimation due to the results.
Mandiri Sekuritas CTRA: FY09 result is in line with our consensus (CTRA, Rp870, Buy, TP: 780)
CTRA recorded net revenue FY09 Rp1.33 bn, which in line with ours and consensus estimate. However, the gross margin fell to 45% FY09, mainly due to increase in cost material over the year, nurtured to bottom line figure to Rp136 bn, slipped by 32,6% yoy, beside also its exposure in forex which loss to –Rp102 bn FY (Rp90 bn FY08). As of 2010, the company plans to have a conservative growth by 20%, mainly result from the booked in apartment revenue from Ciputra World and increase land price in Citra Garden City Jakarta due to JORR toll road open access. CTRA is currently trading at a
discount of 24.4% to its NAV. We are currently reviewing our forecast and assumption.
discount of 24.4% to its NAV. We are currently reviewing our forecast and assumption.
Mandiri Sekuritas SMRA: FY Result slightly below our consensus (SMRA, Rp850, Buy, TP: 730)
SMRA’s booked net revenue FY09 Rp1.98 bn (-5,4% yoy), slightly below our estimates and consensus. The slip mainly due to global economic recession over the year that giving impact to company’s marketing sales target, especially its Serpong property (-10,9% yoy). However, the gross margin increased to 64% FY09, compared to 61% FY08, led to the bottom line grew (+77.8%). For 2010, SMRA targeted growth in net profit by 15%, as this will mainly result from the booked revenue from the newly opened site in Bekasi. SMRA is currently trading at a discount of 14.1% to its NAV. We are currently reviewing our forecast and assumption.
Mandiri Sekuritas Bank Rakyat Indonesia: FY09 results above our expectation and consensus estimates (BBRI, Rp8,250 Buy, Rp8,700)
Bank Rakyat Indonesia recorded a net profit of Rp7.3tn (+22.7% yoy) in 2009, which was above our expectation and consensus estimates.
The bank reported higher than expected fee based income, mainly derived from fees and commissions charged to its customers.
Meanwhile, NIM declined to 9.1% in 2009 from 10.2% in 2008, partly attributed to strong growth in time deposits during the year (CASA proportion declined from 63.5% in 2008 to 60.6% in 2009) which led to a higher increase in interest expense compared to interest income (44.4% yoy vs. 24.9% yoy).
During the analyst meeting yesterday, the management mentioned about the targeted loan growth of 20-25% yoy this year and expected improvement in CASA proportion, supported by full online system effective Nov09. Despite that, the bank only targets NIM to maintain between 8.5% -9.5%.
At present, BRI is trading at 2010F P/BV of 3.1x and PER of 13.0x. We maintained our buy recommendation on the counter.
The bank reported higher than expected fee based income, mainly derived from fees and commissions charged to its customers.
Meanwhile, NIM declined to 9.1% in 2009 from 10.2% in 2008, partly attributed to strong growth in time deposits during the year (CASA proportion declined from 63.5% in 2008 to 60.6% in 2009) which led to a higher increase in interest expense compared to interest income (44.4% yoy vs. 24.9% yoy).
During the analyst meeting yesterday, the management mentioned about the targeted loan growth of 20-25% yoy this year and expected improvement in CASA proportion, supported by full online system effective Nov09. Despite that, the bank only targets NIM to maintain between 8.5% -9.5%.
At present, BRI is trading at 2010F P/BV of 3.1x and PER of 13.0x. We maintained our buy recommendation on the counter.
Mandiri Sekuritas Panin Bank: FY09 results above our expectations, yet inline with consensus estimates (PNBN, Rp1,020, Sell, TP: Rp780)
Panin Bank reported a net profit of Rp915bn in 2009 (-+30.5% yoy), which was above our expectation, yet inline with consensus estimates.
The bank reported lower than expected provisioning expenses as NPL improved substantially to 3.2% at end Dec09 from 4.87% at end Sep09. This is partly enabled by strong loan growth during the quarter of 7.6% qoq to Rp44.4tn bringing total loan growth of 17.0% yoy.
At present, Bank Panin is trading at 2010F P/BV of 2.2x and PER of 18.2x. We are reviewing our forecast for the bank, yet maintained our sell recommendation for the time being.
The bank reported lower than expected provisioning expenses as NPL improved substantially to 3.2% at end Dec09 from 4.87% at end Sep09. This is partly enabled by strong loan growth during the quarter of 7.6% qoq to Rp44.4tn bringing total loan growth of 17.0% yoy.
At present, Bank Panin is trading at 2010F P/BV of 2.2x and PER of 18.2x. We are reviewing our forecast for the bank, yet maintained our sell recommendation for the time being.
Mandiri Sekuritas Budi Acid Jaya: FY09 net income is inline with our estimate and consensus (BUDI, Rp230/share, Buy, TP: Rp300/share)
Budi Acid posted FY09 revenues of Rp1.8tn (+14.8%yoy, +3.1%qoq) and net income of Rp146bn (+343.9%yoy, +84.9%qoq), which is in line with our estimate and consensus.
YoY net income growth was mainly due to forex loss reversal from Rp49bn loss to Rp73bn gain, in addition to better ASP and sales volume.
We expect the company to continue its strong profitability in 2010F supported by higher ASP and sales volume. Based on their policy, with more than Rp40bn net profit, the company should pay 40% dividend payout, translating to 6.8% dividend yield from 2009 net income.
We still maintain Buy recommendation for BUDI which is currently trading at PER10-11F of 5.1x-4.3x.
YoY net income growth was mainly due to forex loss reversal from Rp49bn loss to Rp73bn gain, in addition to better ASP and sales volume.
We expect the company to continue its strong profitability in 2010F supported by higher ASP and sales volume. Based on their policy, with more than Rp40bn net profit, the company should pay 40% dividend payout, translating to 6.8% dividend yield from 2009 net income.
We still maintain Buy recommendation for BUDI which is currently trading at PER10-11F of 5.1x-4.3x.
Mandiri Sekuritas Timah: FY09 net income is inline with our estimate, but 9% above consensus (TINS, Rp2,400/share, Buy, TP: Rp3,000/share)
Timah posted FY09 revenues of Rp7.7tn (-14.8%yoy, +9.0%qoq) and net income of Rp314bn (-76.6%yoy, +11.4%qoq), which is in line with our estimate, but 9% above consensus.
YoY worsening performance was mainly due to lower ASP by 26%, qoq better performance was also due to better ASP of 3%. The company has not given any operational details.
Company’s performance is highly depends on ASP and tin ore mix between offshore and onshore mining. We expect the company to be able to maintain equal mix between offshore and onshore mining. With 1Q10 tin price up by 11%qoq, we expect the company to continue its strong profitability growth.
We still maintain Buy recommendation for TINS which is currently trading at PER10-11F of 9.6x-6.2.
YoY worsening performance was mainly due to lower ASP by 26%, qoq better performance was also due to better ASP of 3%. The company has not given any operational details.
Company’s performance is highly depends on ASP and tin ore mix between offshore and onshore mining. We expect the company to be able to maintain equal mix between offshore and onshore mining. With 1Q10 tin price up by 11%qoq, we expect the company to continue its strong profitability growth.
We still maintain Buy recommendation for TINS which is currently trading at PER10-11F of 9.6x-6.2.
Mandiri Sekuritas Adaro Energy: Revenue FY09 in line with our estimates and consensus (ADRO, Rp1,910, Neutral, TP: Rp1,800)
Adaro managed to increase its margins. Gross margin, operating margin, and net margins are improving significantly.
Adaro recorded gain on foreign exchange of Rp100bn compare with loss of Rp455bn in previous year, meanwhile interest expenses up by 49%yoy. Hence, net income was at Rp4.4tn (+392%yoy), below our expectation but in line with consensus.
We will review our estimation due to the results. Maintain Buy.
Adaro recorded gain on foreign exchange of Rp100bn compare with loss of Rp455bn in previous year, meanwhile interest expenses up by 49%yoy. Hence, net income was at Rp4.4tn (+392%yoy), below our expectation but in line with consensus.
We will review our estimation due to the results. Maintain Buy.
Mandiri Sekuritas Mayora Indah: FY09 earnings of Rp372bn (+89.7% yoy), above ours and consensus expectations (MYOR, Rp4,125, Buy, TP: Rp4,700)
Mayora delivered incredible earnings growth of 89.7% yoy and 0.4% qoq to Rp372bn in FY09. Top-line figure is within ours and consensus estimates, whereas bottom-line is significantly above our and consensus estimates. Revenue upped by 22.3% backed by stronger demand coupled with increased production capacity (do note that MYOR’s new factory has started in Aug09). Stronger rupiah exchange rate also helped to boost gross margin in 4Q09 (25.3% vs 3Q09 of 25.2%) which brought FY09 margin to 23.7%, slightly higher than company’s previous indication of 23%.
However, operating margin dropped in 4Q09 which mainly due to significantly higher G&A expenses. G&A expenses jumped 3-folds on quarterly basis to Rp74bn in 4Q09. We think this is largely due to salaries and bonuses which book in 4Q09.
All in all, FY10F sales is likely to grow by 20%yoy to Rp5.6tn, in our view. This is to take into account for improving purchasing power, coupled with fully implementation of company’s new plant.
Currently, Mayora is trading at PER10F of 8.4x.
However, operating margin dropped in 4Q09 which mainly due to significantly higher G&A expenses. G&A expenses jumped 3-folds on quarterly basis to Rp74bn in 4Q09. We think this is largely due to salaries and bonuses which book in 4Q09.
All in all, FY10F sales is likely to grow by 20%yoy to Rp5.6tn, in our view. This is to take into account for improving purchasing power, coupled with fully implementation of company’s new plant.
Currently, Mayora is trading at PER10F of 8.4x.
Mandiri Sekuritas Perusahaan Gas : Price increase did not suffice potential increase in COGS (PGAS, Rp4,175, Neutral, TP:Rp4,650)
PGAS formally announced the increase of an average 15% (our calculation is 15.8%) from US$5.49/MMBTU to US$6.36/MMBTU. However, post coverage of gas shortage (with several assumptions), we conclude that the increase is just enough to cover the average increase in cost of gas.
Assumptions that we use: a flow of 900 MMSCFD (maximum flow previously guided by PGAS), a deficit of 150 MMSCFD (as stated by PGAS CEO in various sources, today). We use US$2.6/MMBTU as average cost of gas for 750 MMSCFD (current flow with low cost, a cost PGAS has for 900 MMSCFD if there is no shortage), and US$5.4/MMBTU as gas price to cover the deficit. Our calculation showed an increase in average cost of gas from US$2.6MMBTU to US$3.07/MMBTU. That is an increase of 17.9%.
Coupled with strengthening Rupiah we might saw a decline in profits. As PGAS charged in US$, and Rupiah 1Q10 (9264/US$) was 11% stronger than FY09 average of 10,396, we might see a drop in operating profits. Therefore it emphasizes our Neutral recommendation for PGAS. At Rp4,175, PGAS is trading at 19.6x and 18.4x FY10F and FY11F PER, respectively.
Assumptions that we use: a flow of 900 MMSCFD (maximum flow previously guided by PGAS), a deficit of 150 MMSCFD (as stated by PGAS CEO in various sources, today). We use US$2.6/MMBTU as average cost of gas for 750 MMSCFD (current flow with low cost, a cost PGAS has for 900 MMSCFD if there is no shortage), and US$5.4/MMBTU as gas price to cover the deficit. Our calculation showed an increase in average cost of gas from US$2.6MMBTU to US$3.07/MMBTU. That is an increase of 17.9%.
Coupled with strengthening Rupiah we might saw a decline in profits. As PGAS charged in US$, and Rupiah 1Q10 (9264/US$) was 11% stronger than FY09 average of 10,396, we might see a drop in operating profits. Therefore it emphasizes our Neutral recommendation for PGAS. At Rp4,175, PGAS is trading at 19.6x and 18.4x FY10F and FY11F PER, respectively.
NISP Delta Dunia raises Rp10tn of fresh cash (DOID, Rp1,180)
• It is reported that Delta Dunia had set a price of Rp1,400 per share for its new
shares issuance through right issue mechanism. The company aims to raise Rp10tn of fresh cash to finance the acquisition over Berau Coal.
• Delta Dunia will use the proceeds to buy an exchangeable bonds issued by Bukit
Mutiara, a shareholders of Berau Coal.
• This news is likely to deliver a positive sentiment on Delta Dunia’s share price as
it was beaten by massive selling activity amid uncertainty over its right issue price.
• DOID is trading at 2010F consensus PER of 6.7x and EV/EBITDA of 2.7x.
shares issuance through right issue mechanism. The company aims to raise Rp10tn of fresh cash to finance the acquisition over Berau Coal.
• Delta Dunia will use the proceeds to buy an exchangeable bonds issued by Bukit
Mutiara, a shareholders of Berau Coal.
• This news is likely to deliver a positive sentiment on Delta Dunia’s share price as
it was beaten by massive selling activity amid uncertainty over its right issue price.
• DOID is trading at 2010F consensus PER of 6.7x and EV/EBITDA of 2.7x.
NISP Bank Rakyat Indonesia posted strong net income in 2009 period (BBRI, Rp8,250)
• During 2009 BRI managed to post Rp7.3tn of net income, 22.7% YoY higher compared to Rp6.0tn a year earlier. The bank’s net income managed to surpass the consensus’ expectation of Rp6.9tn for the period. This was due to BRI’s ability to post robust growth on loans that reached Rp205.5tn last year, or increased by 27.6% YoY from Rp161.1tn a year earlier.
• The bank still maintains MSME’s loans composition as it gives better yields than the corporate loans segment. During 2009, total MSME loans reached 81.37% of the bank’s total loans, which was higher than 80.88% in 2008 period.
• In TPF side, total deposits grew by 26.1%, or relatively inline with loans growth
in the corresponding 2009. Most of the TPF are still dominated by low cost funding, which accounted for 60.6% of the bank’s total deposit account.
• The combination of favorable assets yield and low cost funding helped the bank
to post a higher net interest income of Rp22.9tn last year, 16.6% YoY higher from Rp19.6tn a year earlier. This was also added by stronger other operating income of Rp3.3tn (+30.7% YoY) from higher fee based income.
• Thus, despite BRI posted a two fold increase in provision, the bank still managed
to book a strong growth in its bottom line.
• On asset quality side, NPL edged higher to 3.5% in 2009 from 2.8% in 2008, however there was a significant improvement during 4Q09 where the bank’s NPL improved from 3.9% in 3Q09 to 3.5% in the end of 4Q09. The bad debt amount also decreased to Rp6.6tn in 4Q09 from Rp7.5tn in 3Q09. Thus the bank decided to lower its provision expenses to Rp407.8bn from Rp2.7tn in 3Q09. The bank felt comfortable with its NPL coverage ratio that reached 1.6x at the end of 2009 period.
• Going forward, BRI aims to maintain its loan growth at 20% YoY – 25% YoY and
aims it NIM to range between 8.5% - 9.5%.
• BBRI is trading at 2010F consensus PER of 11.7x and PBV of 3.1x.
• The bank still maintains MSME’s loans composition as it gives better yields than the corporate loans segment. During 2009, total MSME loans reached 81.37% of the bank’s total loans, which was higher than 80.88% in 2008 period.
• In TPF side, total deposits grew by 26.1%, or relatively inline with loans growth
in the corresponding 2009. Most of the TPF are still dominated by low cost funding, which accounted for 60.6% of the bank’s total deposit account.
• The combination of favorable assets yield and low cost funding helped the bank
to post a higher net interest income of Rp22.9tn last year, 16.6% YoY higher from Rp19.6tn a year earlier. This was also added by stronger other operating income of Rp3.3tn (+30.7% YoY) from higher fee based income.
• Thus, despite BRI posted a two fold increase in provision, the bank still managed
to book a strong growth in its bottom line.
• On asset quality side, NPL edged higher to 3.5% in 2009 from 2.8% in 2008, however there was a significant improvement during 4Q09 where the bank’s NPL improved from 3.9% in 3Q09 to 3.5% in the end of 4Q09. The bad debt amount also decreased to Rp6.6tn in 4Q09 from Rp7.5tn in 3Q09. Thus the bank decided to lower its provision expenses to Rp407.8bn from Rp2.7tn in 3Q09. The bank felt comfortable with its NPL coverage ratio that reached 1.6x at the end of 2009 period.
• Going forward, BRI aims to maintain its loan growth at 20% YoY – 25% YoY and
aims it NIM to range between 8.5% - 9.5%.
• BBRI is trading at 2010F consensus PER of 11.7x and PBV of 3.1x.
NISP Rajawali Group to sell its stake on Semen Gresik at Rp7,000/share (SMGR, Rp7,450, Buy)
• It is reported that Rajawali Group, through its subsidiary Blue Valley Holdings, plans to sell a 17.4% stake at Semen Gresik (SMGR) at US$800mn or that translates into Rp7,000/share. The selling price is at a 6% discount to the share’s last traded price.
• Rajawali Group has appointed JP Morgan as the sole book runner for the transaction which will be offered through a book building process to investors. It also has an option to sell an additional 6.3% to total 23.7%.
• We believe this transaction is only on shareholder level, thus will not affect Semen Gresik’s operational performance. The company has previously said that although Rajawali Group sells its stake; it will only give minimal impact to the company as its management system has already well developed.
• However, this transaction will give some negative sentiment on the share price as the execution price is well below the current market price.
• As this transaction will only give minimal impact on the company’s performance, we still maintain our Buy stances on the counter. Semen Gresik is currently trading at 2010F PER of 11.4x and EV/EBITDA of 6.4x.
• Rajawali Group has appointed JP Morgan as the sole book runner for the transaction which will be offered through a book building process to investors. It also has an option to sell an additional 6.3% to total 23.7%.
• We believe this transaction is only on shareholder level, thus will not affect Semen Gresik’s operational performance. The company has previously said that although Rajawali Group sells its stake; it will only give minimal impact to the company as its management system has already well developed.
• However, this transaction will give some negative sentiment on the share price as the execution price is well below the current market price.
• As this transaction will only give minimal impact on the company’s performance, we still maintain our Buy stances on the counter. Semen Gresik is currently trading at 2010F PER of 11.4x and EV/EBITDA of 6.4x.
NISP Adaro posted a robust 388.9% YoY growth in 2009 net profit (ADRO, Rp1,910, Buy)
• During 2009, Adaro managed to post robust growth on net income to Rp4.4tn or 388.9% YoY higher from Rp887.2bn in 2008 period. The company’s net income is relatively inline with our expectation as it came at a slight 4.7% below our forecast.
• Such achievement was mainly driven by strong revenue growth of 48.9% YoY to Rp26.9tn as compared to Rp18.1tn in 2008 period as the company managed to sell coal at a higher price last year. This was also helped by a relatively stable coal sales volume despite sluggish coal demand environment where the company sold 41.4mn tons last year compared to 41.1mn tons in 2008.
• Thus, the company’s gross profit leapt by more than two fold to Rp11.0tn from Rp4.9tn and helped the company’s profitability to improve significantly where its
gross margin and operating margin jumped to 41.0% and 36.9% in 2009 from 27.3% and 21.3% respectively.
• Overall, the company managed to deliver significant performance last year and posted strong improvement in its financial and operational performance. Currently, ADRO is trading at 2010F PER of 18.8x and EV/EBITDA of 8.3x, Buy.
• Such achievement was mainly driven by strong revenue growth of 48.9% YoY to Rp26.9tn as compared to Rp18.1tn in 2008 period as the company managed to sell coal at a higher price last year. This was also helped by a relatively stable coal sales volume despite sluggish coal demand environment where the company sold 41.4mn tons last year compared to 41.1mn tons in 2008.
• Thus, the company’s gross profit leapt by more than two fold to Rp11.0tn from Rp4.9tn and helped the company’s profitability to improve significantly where its
gross margin and operating margin jumped to 41.0% and 36.9% in 2009 from 27.3% and 21.3% respectively.
• Overall, the company managed to deliver significant performance last year and posted strong improvement in its financial and operational performance. Currently, ADRO is trading at 2010F PER of 18.8x and EV/EBITDA of 8.3x, Buy.
NISP PGN raises selling price by 15% on average next month (PGAS, Rp4,175, Buy)
• Perusahaan Gas (PGN) and the industry association have come into agreement during a meeting with government on the adjustment of gas sales price, the gas surcharge and guarantee of payment.
• Starting from April 1, PGN will start new gas pricing for all industries and commercial costumers in West Java area. Gas selling price for customers using more than 300,000 m3/month is US$4,30/MMBTU+Rp750/m3 or equivalent to approximately US$6,37/MMBTU.
• The company will also implement the application of surcharge amounting to 300% for the volume exceeding maximum contract and payment guarantee to cover 2 months worth of gas usage for all customers.
• This selling price adjustment beat our expectations as we had only expected a 5% hike on selling price in 2H10. This action surely will affect our earnings forecast for PGN with huge potential upgrade for 2010F and 2011F earnings by 6% on the revenue and 13% on the bottom line.
• This action may also prompt our target price on PGN higher by 11% to reach Rp4.939/share. We still maintain Buy on PGN with current 2010F PER of 16.4x and EV/EBTIDA of 10.1x.
• Starting from April 1, PGN will start new gas pricing for all industries and commercial costumers in West Java area. Gas selling price for customers using more than 300,000 m3/month is US$4,30/MMBTU+Rp750/m3 or equivalent to approximately US$6,37/MMBTU.
• The company will also implement the application of surcharge amounting to 300% for the volume exceeding maximum contract and payment guarantee to cover 2 months worth of gas usage for all customers.
• This selling price adjustment beat our expectations as we had only expected a 5% hike on selling price in 2H10. This action surely will affect our earnings forecast for PGN with huge potential upgrade for 2010F and 2011F earnings by 6% on the revenue and 13% on the bottom line.
• This action may also prompt our target price on PGN higher by 11% to reach Rp4.939/share. We still maintain Buy on PGN with current 2010F PER of 16.4x and EV/EBTIDA of 10.1x.
Morgan Stanley - ANEKA TAMBANG (ANTM.JK): NICKEL LAGGARD TO OUTPERFORM: UPGRADE TO OW
What's Changed
Price Target: Rp2,300 to Rp2,700
Rating: Equal-weight to Overweight
2010-11e EPS : Up by 26-29%
Upgrade to OW & raise PT: Morgan Stanley's commodity team has published the latest version of its quarterly Playbook, in which the team raises its nickel price forecast by 14-27% over 2010-15e. Please see Morgan Stanley "Global Metal Playbook - 2Q10: Navigating Liquidity Withdrawal, Policy Tightening and a Stronger US Dollar", for more detail. On these higher nickel price forecasts and some cost adjustments, we raise Antam's 2010e and 2011e EPS by 24% and 34%, respectively, and upgrade the stock to OW with a new PT of Rp2,700.
More positive on nickel: We expect a higher nickel price to be sustained and the market to return to deficit for 2010. We believe that the recovery is well-supported by improving fundamentals from: 1) recovering stainless production; 2) continued strikes in Vale's Sudbury mines; and 3) delay in Vale's major Goro nickel project.
Higher nickel price and volume to drive earnings: We forecast strong earnings recovery from the nickel business on higher nickel prices and volumes. We estimate that each US$1/lb increase in nickel prices could add Rp30 or 16% to our revised 2010e EPS forecast. If we apply the spot nickel price of US$10/lb, we could see our 2010e EPS increase by 28% to Rp212.
Buy ahead of earnings recovery: Our new 2011 EPS forecast is 10% ahead of consensus and we forecast Antam's ROE to recover to mid-cycle levels of ~25% by 2011-12 from the cycle trough of 11%. Despite this recovery, Antam's valuation is below the MSCI Indonesia Index average at around 10x P/E on 2011e and a dividend yield of ~4%; implying 50% earnings growth p.a. over 2009-11. Investors should buy ahead of the earnings recovery before consensus earnings are upgraded.
Price Target: Rp2,300 to Rp2,700
Rating: Equal-weight to Overweight
2010-11e EPS : Up by 26-29%
Upgrade to OW & raise PT: Morgan Stanley's commodity team has published the latest version of its quarterly Playbook, in which the team raises its nickel price forecast by 14-27% over 2010-15e. Please see Morgan Stanley "Global Metal Playbook - 2Q10: Navigating Liquidity Withdrawal, Policy Tightening and a Stronger US Dollar", for more detail. On these higher nickel price forecasts and some cost adjustments, we raise Antam's 2010e and 2011e EPS by 24% and 34%, respectively, and upgrade the stock to OW with a new PT of Rp2,700.
More positive on nickel: We expect a higher nickel price to be sustained and the market to return to deficit for 2010. We believe that the recovery is well-supported by improving fundamentals from: 1) recovering stainless production; 2) continued strikes in Vale's Sudbury mines; and 3) delay in Vale's major Goro nickel project.
Higher nickel price and volume to drive earnings: We forecast strong earnings recovery from the nickel business on higher nickel prices and volumes. We estimate that each US$1/lb increase in nickel prices could add Rp30 or 16% to our revised 2010e EPS forecast. If we apply the spot nickel price of US$10/lb, we could see our 2010e EPS increase by 28% to Rp212.
Buy ahead of earnings recovery: Our new 2011 EPS forecast is 10% ahead of consensus and we forecast Antam's ROE to recover to mid-cycle levels of ~25% by 2011-12 from the cycle trough of 11%. Despite this recovery, Antam's valuation is below the MSCI Indonesia Index average at around 10x P/E on 2011e and a dividend yield of ~4%; implying 50% earnings growth p.a. over 2009-11. Investors should buy ahead of the earnings recovery before consensus earnings are upgraded.
DOID - Company Press Release - To finance Berau via right issueand of US$1.1bn at 1400/sh
Pada hari ini PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk (“Delta”) telah menandatangani term sheet yang tidak mengikat dengan Recapital Investment Group untuk Delta memperoleh saham mayoritas atas PT Berau Coal Energy (sebelumnya dikenal sebagai PT Risco) (“Berau Energy”) dan bagi Recapital, pemegang 100% saham atas Berau Energy, untuk menukar sebagian besar sahamnya di Berau Energy dengan kepemilikan saham dalam jumlah substansial pada Delta.
Transaksi ini akan menciptakan suatu bisnis berbasis batubara yang terintegrasi dan terkemuka di Indonesia dengan berbagai keuntungan operasional dan strategis untuk Delta dalam usaha jasa pertambangan. Transaksi tersebut akan mengintegrasikan secara vertikal PT Berau Coal (“Berau”) – saat ini merupakan perusahaan pertambangan batu-bara terbesar kelima di Indonesia – dengan PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama (“BUMA”) – saat ini kontraktor terbesar Berau dan dimiliki oleh Delta. BUMA diharapkan dapat memperoleh pangsa pasar yang lebih besar dan kontrak dengan jangka yang lebih panjang dari Berau, sementara Berau diharapkan dapat memiliki operasi yang lebih terkonsolidasi dan karenanya menjadi lebih efisien.
Transaksi ini akan dilaksanakan dengan pembelian oleh Delta atas Mandatory Exchangeable Bond (“MEB”) yang diterbitkan oleh pihak terafiliasi dari Recapital. MEB akan dapat ditukarkan menjadi saham di Berau Energy pada waktu yang ditentukan (diperkirakan sekitar April 2011) pada nilai yang didasarkan atas valuasi IPO yang
akan dicapai oleh Berau Energy dimana proses IPO tersebut memenuhi kualifikasi IPO internasional. Delta berniat untuk membiayai pembelian MEB dengan menerbitkan saham baru setara kurang lebih Rp 10 triliun (atau kurang lebih US$1,1 milyar) saham melalui rights issue pada harga Rp 1.400 per saham (“Rights Issue”). Berdasarkan term sheet, Recapital akan memperoleh saham dalam jumlah substansial di Delta melalui Rights Issue dan akan bertindak sebagai pembeli siaga pada Rights Issue.
Para pihak akan bekerja bersama secara mendalam selama beberapa minggu ke depan untuk melakukan due diligence dan bernegosiasi dan menandatangani dokumentasi yang definitif sehubungan dengan penerbitan MEB. Ketentuan definitif atas transaksi, apabila telah difinalisasi, akan dikomunikasikan kepada publik dan dimintakan persetujuannya kepada para pemegang saham kami.
Delta adalah perusahaan induk BUMA, yang merupakan kontraktor pertambangan terbesar di Berau dan merupakan kedua terbesar berdasarkan volume di Indonesia, yang menyediakan jasa pertambangan berdasarkan kontrak jangka panjang kepada sejumlah produsen batu-bara terkemuka di Indonesia.
Berau Energy adalah pemilik tidak langsung atas 90% saham Berau, perusahaan pertambangan batu-bara terbesar kelima di Indonesia dengan produksi batu-bara sebesar 14,3 juta ton pada tahun 2009. Berau melakukan usaha di pertambangan open-cut pada wilayah pertambangannya di Kalimantan Timur. Berau adalah
klien terbesar BUMA dari segi pendapatan dan volume.
Jakarta, 30 Maret 2010
PT. DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR Tbk
Direksi
Transaksi ini akan menciptakan suatu bisnis berbasis batubara yang terintegrasi dan terkemuka di Indonesia dengan berbagai keuntungan operasional dan strategis untuk Delta dalam usaha jasa pertambangan. Transaksi tersebut akan mengintegrasikan secara vertikal PT Berau Coal (“Berau”) – saat ini merupakan perusahaan pertambangan batu-bara terbesar kelima di Indonesia – dengan PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama (“BUMA”) – saat ini kontraktor terbesar Berau dan dimiliki oleh Delta. BUMA diharapkan dapat memperoleh pangsa pasar yang lebih besar dan kontrak dengan jangka yang lebih panjang dari Berau, sementara Berau diharapkan dapat memiliki operasi yang lebih terkonsolidasi dan karenanya menjadi lebih efisien.
Transaksi ini akan dilaksanakan dengan pembelian oleh Delta atas Mandatory Exchangeable Bond (“MEB”) yang diterbitkan oleh pihak terafiliasi dari Recapital. MEB akan dapat ditukarkan menjadi saham di Berau Energy pada waktu yang ditentukan (diperkirakan sekitar April 2011) pada nilai yang didasarkan atas valuasi IPO yang
akan dicapai oleh Berau Energy dimana proses IPO tersebut memenuhi kualifikasi IPO internasional. Delta berniat untuk membiayai pembelian MEB dengan menerbitkan saham baru setara kurang lebih Rp 10 triliun (atau kurang lebih US$1,1 milyar) saham melalui rights issue pada harga Rp 1.400 per saham (“Rights Issue”). Berdasarkan term sheet, Recapital akan memperoleh saham dalam jumlah substansial di Delta melalui Rights Issue dan akan bertindak sebagai pembeli siaga pada Rights Issue.
Para pihak akan bekerja bersama secara mendalam selama beberapa minggu ke depan untuk melakukan due diligence dan bernegosiasi dan menandatangani dokumentasi yang definitif sehubungan dengan penerbitan MEB. Ketentuan definitif atas transaksi, apabila telah difinalisasi, akan dikomunikasikan kepada publik dan dimintakan persetujuannya kepada para pemegang saham kami.
Delta adalah perusahaan induk BUMA, yang merupakan kontraktor pertambangan terbesar di Berau dan merupakan kedua terbesar berdasarkan volume di Indonesia, yang menyediakan jasa pertambangan berdasarkan kontrak jangka panjang kepada sejumlah produsen batu-bara terkemuka di Indonesia.
Berau Energy adalah pemilik tidak langsung atas 90% saham Berau, perusahaan pertambangan batu-bara terbesar kelima di Indonesia dengan produksi batu-bara sebesar 14,3 juta ton pada tahun 2009. Berau melakukan usaha di pertambangan open-cut pada wilayah pertambangannya di Kalimantan Timur. Berau adalah
klien terbesar BUMA dari segi pendapatan dan volume.
Jakarta, 30 Maret 2010
PT. DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR Tbk
Direksi
Rabu, 31 Maret 2010
Financial Time Steel prices to rocket under new contract
Global steel prices are set to leap by up to a third, pushing up the cost of everyday goods from cars to domestic appliances, after miners and steelmakers on Tuesday agreed a ground-breaking change in the iron ore price system.The deal by Vale of Brazil and Anglo-Australian BHP Billiton with Japanese and Chinese mills marks the end of the 40-year-old benchmark system of annual contracts and lengthy price negotiations. The industry instead agreed to move to quarterly contracts linked to the nascent iron ore spot market.
“The benchmark system has ended. There is no comeback,” said a senior mining executive directly involved in the talks.
The world’s top ore miners stand to profit hugely in the short term from the new price system. One executive estimated that the profits of the big three producers, Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton, would be boosted by at least $5bn this year. more...
ACTIVE NICKELNickel CMNI3 rose to $24,385 a tonne, just below its
21-month high of $24,498 a tonne hit on Monday.
Funds have been active in nickel. Latest LME data showed a
dominant position controlling between 50 to 80 percent of cash
warrants. [LME/WC] The discount between the cash and three-month
contract MNI0-3 was at $35 a tonne, versus $83 on March 1.
Market sources said New-York based hedge fund Touradji Capital
Management was betting on improved demand for nickel, helping the
material used in stainless steel outperform other base metals this
year. [ID:nLDE62S0ZI]
Tin CMSN3 also gained to reach a two-week high and was last
at $18,370 a tonne from $18,025.
Selasa, 30 Maret 2010
PGN Sepakati Harga Gas Baru dengan Industri
INILAH.COM, Jakarta - Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk (PGN) telah melakukan kesepakatan dengan Asosiasi Industri tentang perjanjian jual beli gas.
Hal ini disampaikan M. Wahid Sutopo, Sekretaris Perusahaan PGN dalam keterbukaan informasinya ke BEI, Selasa (30/3). Disampaikan, kesepakatan tersebut diambil di Departemen Perindustrian hari ini setelah melakukan rapat koordinasi antara Kementerian Perindustrian, Asosiasi-asosiasi Industri dan PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk (PGN) yang dipimpin oleh Direktur Jenderal Industri Agro & Kimia dan dihadiri oleh Direktur Jenderal Industri Logam, Mesin, Tekstil dan Aneka dan ditutup oleh Menteri Perindustrian.
Pada kesempatan tersebut telah dicapai kesepakatan antara Asosiasi-asosiasi
Industri dengan PGN mengenai Perjanjian Jual Beli Gas (PJBG) terkait penyesuaian harga gas, penerapan surcharge serta jaminan pembayaran.
Direktur Utama PGN, Hendi Prio Santoso menyambut baik adanya kesepakatan antara PGN dengan industri mengenai hal-hal penting
dalam PJBG. Ke depan PGN tetap berkomitmen dalam menyalurkan gas untuk kebutuhan berbagai segmen pelanggan di dalam negeri.
Mulai 1 April 2010, PGN akan menyesuaikan harga gas untuk segmen pelanggan industri dan komersial. Penyesuaian harga baru tersebut berlaku menurut lokasi dimana pelanggan berada (sesuai wilayah SBU dan area) serta kelompok besaran pemakaian gas.
Secara rata-rata, harga gas untuk pelanggan dengan pemakaian di atas 300.000 m3 per bulan menjadi sebesar US$4,30/ MMBTU + Rp743 /m3. Rincian harga gas telah disosialisasikan kepada pelanggan di masing-masing wilayah. [cms]
Hal ini disampaikan M. Wahid Sutopo, Sekretaris Perusahaan PGN dalam keterbukaan informasinya ke BEI, Selasa (30/3). Disampaikan, kesepakatan tersebut diambil di Departemen Perindustrian hari ini setelah melakukan rapat koordinasi antara Kementerian Perindustrian, Asosiasi-asosiasi Industri dan PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk (PGN) yang dipimpin oleh Direktur Jenderal Industri Agro & Kimia dan dihadiri oleh Direktur Jenderal Industri Logam, Mesin, Tekstil dan Aneka dan ditutup oleh Menteri Perindustrian.
Pada kesempatan tersebut telah dicapai kesepakatan antara Asosiasi-asosiasi
Industri dengan PGN mengenai Perjanjian Jual Beli Gas (PJBG) terkait penyesuaian harga gas, penerapan surcharge serta jaminan pembayaran.
Direktur Utama PGN, Hendi Prio Santoso menyambut baik adanya kesepakatan antara PGN dengan industri mengenai hal-hal penting
dalam PJBG. Ke depan PGN tetap berkomitmen dalam menyalurkan gas untuk kebutuhan berbagai segmen pelanggan di dalam negeri.
Mulai 1 April 2010, PGN akan menyesuaikan harga gas untuk segmen pelanggan industri dan komersial. Penyesuaian harga baru tersebut berlaku menurut lokasi dimana pelanggan berada (sesuai wilayah SBU dan area) serta kelompok besaran pemakaian gas.
Secara rata-rata, harga gas untuk pelanggan dengan pemakaian di atas 300.000 m3 per bulan menjadi sebesar US$4,30/ MMBTU + Rp743 /m3. Rincian harga gas telah disosialisasikan kepada pelanggan di masing-masing wilayah. [cms]
Bisnis Produksi batu bara Asam-Asam 5,75 juta ton
ASAM-ASAM, Kalsel (Bisnis.com): PT Arutmin Indonesia, anak usaha PT Bumi Resources Tbk, menargetkan produksi di tambang batu bara Asam-asam mencapai 5,75 juta ton pada tahun ini, meningkat 38% dari realisasi pada tahun lalu 3,56 juta ton.
Tambahan produksi itu seiring dengan mulai beroperasinya sejumlah proyek PLTU dan kesiapan infrastruktur di lokasi tambang yang beroperasi sejak 2004 itu.
Menurut General Manager Operation PT Arutmin Indonesia Tambang Asam-asam Dudi Sudrajat, target produksi 5,75 juta ton pada tahun ini diyakini tercapai karena didukung terminal khusus batu bara berkapasitas hingga 10 juta ton per tahun.
"Terminal itu dibangun khusus untuk pengiriman hasil tambang dari Asam-asam yang dapat ditingkatkan produksinya hingga 10 juta ton per tahun," katanya di Asam-asam, Kec. Jorong, Kab. Tanah Laut, Kalimantan Selatan, hari ini.
Pada kuartal I/2010, ungkap Dudi, tingkat produksi tambang Asam-asam mencapai 92% dari produksi rata-rata 400.000 per bulan.
"Tidak terpenuhinya target kuartal I ini curah hujan lebih banyak 200% dari prediksi. Saat hujan, kegiatan di penambangan terganggu, sehingga terpaksa dikurangi atau disetop. Tapi kami tetap optimis mampu memenuhi target tahun ini."
Menurut dia, realisasi produksi pada tahun lalu di bawah target 4,8 juta ton. Hal ini disebabkan Arutmin belum memiliki pelabuhan dedicated, infrastruktur belum sepenuhnya rampung, dan intensitas hujan cukup tinggi.
Dudi mengatakan 75% dari target 5,75 juta ton atau sekitar 4,2 juta ton digunakan untuk memenuhi permintaan domestik, termasuk ke PLTU, sedangkan sisanya diekspor a.l. ke India dan China.
Khusus untuk proyek PLTU, tambang Asam-asam ditargetkan memasok 3,6 juta ton pada tahun ini. Tambang tersebut telah memperoleh kontrak pengadaan batu bara 10 juta ton per tahun untuk sejumlah PLTU dalam proyek 10.000 Mega Watt.
PLTU itu yakni Suralaya, Labuan, Teluk Naga, Indramayu, Rembang, Tanjung Jati, Paiton, Pacitan, dan Tuban.
Dudi memproyeksikan produksi tambang Asam-asam, termasuk lokasi di Mulia, bisa mencapai 20 juta ton pada 2013.
Target itu akan didukung dengan pengoperasian tiga terminal khusus berkapasitas total 20 juta ton per tahun. Selain di Asam-asam, Arutmin akan membangun terminal di Kintap (Kab. Tanah Laut) dan Satui Timur, masing-masing berkapasitas 5 juta ton per tahun.
Terminal khusus Kintap akan dibangun mulai tahun ini dan diproyeksikan rampung dalam 16 bulan, sementara terminal di Satui Timur masih dalam tahap pengkajian.
Arutmin mengoperasikan empat penambangan di Kalsel, yakni Asam-asam, Satui, Senakin, dan Batulicin. Perjanjian Karya Pengusahaan Pertambangan Batubara (PKP2B) Arutmin mencakup areal seluas 12.473 hektare, termasuk tambang Asam-asam sekitar 8.000 ha.
Cadangan batu bara di tambang Asam-asam sekitar 290 juta ton, tidak termasuk cadangan tambang Mulia sekitar 60 juta ton yang berada di bawah pengelolaan Asam-asam. (wiw)
Tambahan produksi itu seiring dengan mulai beroperasinya sejumlah proyek PLTU dan kesiapan infrastruktur di lokasi tambang yang beroperasi sejak 2004 itu.
Menurut General Manager Operation PT Arutmin Indonesia Tambang Asam-asam Dudi Sudrajat, target produksi 5,75 juta ton pada tahun ini diyakini tercapai karena didukung terminal khusus batu bara berkapasitas hingga 10 juta ton per tahun.
"Terminal itu dibangun khusus untuk pengiriman hasil tambang dari Asam-asam yang dapat ditingkatkan produksinya hingga 10 juta ton per tahun," katanya di Asam-asam, Kec. Jorong, Kab. Tanah Laut, Kalimantan Selatan, hari ini.
Pada kuartal I/2010, ungkap Dudi, tingkat produksi tambang Asam-asam mencapai 92% dari produksi rata-rata 400.000 per bulan.
"Tidak terpenuhinya target kuartal I ini curah hujan lebih banyak 200% dari prediksi. Saat hujan, kegiatan di penambangan terganggu, sehingga terpaksa dikurangi atau disetop. Tapi kami tetap optimis mampu memenuhi target tahun ini."
Menurut dia, realisasi produksi pada tahun lalu di bawah target 4,8 juta ton. Hal ini disebabkan Arutmin belum memiliki pelabuhan dedicated, infrastruktur belum sepenuhnya rampung, dan intensitas hujan cukup tinggi.
Dudi mengatakan 75% dari target 5,75 juta ton atau sekitar 4,2 juta ton digunakan untuk memenuhi permintaan domestik, termasuk ke PLTU, sedangkan sisanya diekspor a.l. ke India dan China.
Khusus untuk proyek PLTU, tambang Asam-asam ditargetkan memasok 3,6 juta ton pada tahun ini. Tambang tersebut telah memperoleh kontrak pengadaan batu bara 10 juta ton per tahun untuk sejumlah PLTU dalam proyek 10.000 Mega Watt.
PLTU itu yakni Suralaya, Labuan, Teluk Naga, Indramayu, Rembang, Tanjung Jati, Paiton, Pacitan, dan Tuban.
Dudi memproyeksikan produksi tambang Asam-asam, termasuk lokasi di Mulia, bisa mencapai 20 juta ton pada 2013.
Target itu akan didukung dengan pengoperasian tiga terminal khusus berkapasitas total 20 juta ton per tahun. Selain di Asam-asam, Arutmin akan membangun terminal di Kintap (Kab. Tanah Laut) dan Satui Timur, masing-masing berkapasitas 5 juta ton per tahun.
Terminal khusus Kintap akan dibangun mulai tahun ini dan diproyeksikan rampung dalam 16 bulan, sementara terminal di Satui Timur masih dalam tahap pengkajian.
Arutmin mengoperasikan empat penambangan di Kalsel, yakni Asam-asam, Satui, Senakin, dan Batulicin. Perjanjian Karya Pengusahaan Pertambangan Batubara (PKP2B) Arutmin mencakup areal seluas 12.473 hektare, termasuk tambang Asam-asam sekitar 8.000 ha.
Cadangan batu bara di tambang Asam-asam sekitar 290 juta ton, tidak termasuk cadangan tambang Mulia sekitar 60 juta ton yang berada di bawah pengelolaan Asam-asam. (wiw)
SMGR Rumors - Alert
Indonesia conglomerate Peter Sondakh will gain Rp5.2 trillion from sale of up to 19.9% interest in Indonesia largest cement maket PT Semen Gresik Tbk (SMGR) in less than 4 years.
Blue Valley Holdings Pte Ltd, subsidiary of Rajawali Corporation, is starting book building tonight and scheduled to end the sale transaction tomorrow.
Rajawali will offer 17.43% stakes or 1.04 billion shares in Semen Gresik via private placement. JPMorgan is sole book runner of the private placement. Rajawali offers Semen Gresik at Rp7,000 per share, a 6% discount from today's market closing of Rp7,450 per share. Rajawali will grab around Rp8.26 trillion from 19.9% sale. In May 2006, Rajawali bought 24.9% stakes of SMGR from Cemex Holdings.
According the sale structure, when JPMorgan gets strong deman, Rajawali enables to upsize the sale up to 19,9% shares, leaving 5% stakes.
Blue Valley Holdings Pte Ltd, subsidiary of Rajawali Corporation, is starting book building tonight and scheduled to end the sale transaction tomorrow.
Rajawali will offer 17.43% stakes or 1.04 billion shares in Semen Gresik via private placement. JPMorgan is sole book runner of the private placement. Rajawali offers Semen Gresik at Rp7,000 per share, a 6% discount from today's market closing of Rp7,450 per share. Rajawali will grab around Rp8.26 trillion from 19.9% sale. In May 2006, Rajawali bought 24.9% stakes of SMGR from Cemex Holdings.
According the sale structure, when JPMorgan gets strong deman, Rajawali enables to upsize the sale up to 19,9% shares, leaving 5% stakes.
Tata Power may sell 10% Bumi stake to Olympus
Mumbai: Tata Power, the country’s biggest power generator in the private sector, might sell 8-10% of its stake in two coal mines in Indonesia for $300 million.
The stake could be sold to Olympus Capital, a private capital firm, a television channel reported on Monday.
Tata Power could not be reached for comment but it is said to have denied the move. Officials at Olympus Capital India were not available for a comment.
An email sent to the investment firm’s administrative manager by DNA Money did not elicit a response at the time of going to print.
Jagannadham Thunuguntla, equity head, SMC Capitals Ltd, which provides merchant banking and research services, said he didn’t have direct knowledge of this deal. He, however, added that Olympus Capital is among the handful of investment firms capable of making a big-ticket investment all by itself. “Most of the big ticket deals announced so far have been co-investments and Olympus has the financial power to pursue large private equity investments,” said Thunuguntla. Turn to Page 20
Speculations have been rife for some time over Tata Power’s plans to sell its stake in the mines, but the company has maintained that there is no such thing on the cards.
Tata Power in 2007 acquired a 30% stake in two coal mines and a coal trading company, all promoted by PT Bumi Resources Tbk, in Indonesia for $1.1 billion.
An analyst with a domestic brokerage said the reasons for the move could be various. “They might want to buy stakes in more mines or they need funds for equity infusion in their power projects,” he stated, not wishing to be identified.
He added that there was no reason for Tata Power to be tied to these mines. “The sale won’t affect the contract for sourcing coal from there for its projects,” he said.
Tata Power has an installed capacity of under 3,000 mw, which it plans to up to 25,000 mw by 2017 at a cost of Rs 29,300 crore.
The current annual mining capacity at the Indonesia mines is 60 million tonnes and Tata Power imports 1 mt from there for its plant at Trombay. The company also plans to source the total coal requirement of 12 mt of its 4,000 mw ultra mega power project in Mundra from the PT Bumi mines.
Link
The stake could be sold to Olympus Capital, a private capital firm, a television channel reported on Monday.
Tata Power could not be reached for comment but it is said to have denied the move. Officials at Olympus Capital India were not available for a comment.
An email sent to the investment firm’s administrative manager by DNA Money did not elicit a response at the time of going to print.
Jagannadham Thunuguntla, equity head, SMC Capitals Ltd, which provides merchant banking and research services, said he didn’t have direct knowledge of this deal. He, however, added that Olympus Capital is among the handful of investment firms capable of making a big-ticket investment all by itself. “Most of the big ticket deals announced so far have been co-investments and Olympus has the financial power to pursue large private equity investments,” said Thunuguntla. Turn to Page 20
Speculations have been rife for some time over Tata Power’s plans to sell its stake in the mines, but the company has maintained that there is no such thing on the cards.
Tata Power in 2007 acquired a 30% stake in two coal mines and a coal trading company, all promoted by PT Bumi Resources Tbk, in Indonesia for $1.1 billion.
An analyst with a domestic brokerage said the reasons for the move could be various. “They might want to buy stakes in more mines or they need funds for equity infusion in their power projects,” he stated, not wishing to be identified.
He added that there was no reason for Tata Power to be tied to these mines. “The sale won’t affect the contract for sourcing coal from there for its projects,” he said.
Tata Power has an installed capacity of under 3,000 mw, which it plans to up to 25,000 mw by 2017 at a cost of Rs 29,300 crore.
The current annual mining capacity at the Indonesia mines is 60 million tonnes and Tata Power imports 1 mt from there for its plant at Trombay. The company also plans to source the total coal requirement of 12 mt of its 4,000 mw ultra mega power project in Mundra from the PT Bumi mines.
Link
Samuel Sekuritas INDF - Solid Performance (Maintain HOLD TP Rp4,000)_
• Thanks to higher sales in dairy and lower COGS. INDF recorded total revenue of
Rp37 trillion in FY09, down by 4.3% YoY, in line with our estimates. Consumer
Branded Product (CBP) Group is the biggest contributor (32.4% to total sales). The
sales will be down by 12% YoY to Rp34 trillion without involve of dairy division which was acquired in December 2008. However, gross profit rose 12.8% YoY to Rp 5 trillion due to decreased in commodity prices and strengthening of Rupiah. Meanwhile, net income increased by 100.7% YoY to Rp2 trillion in FY09, supporting by strong operating income and gain from foreign exchange amounting to Rp731 billion (vs FY08 foreign exchange loss Rp713 billion).
• Financial position remains solid. EBITDA rose by 19.2% YoY to Rp6.6 trillion, but
interest coverage declined to 4.3x in FY09 (from 4.8x in FY08). Leverage level improved with net geaaring dropped to 0.83x (from 1.09x). This shows INDF’s financial condition remain solid.
• Maintain HOLD. We revised up INDF’s projection due to the following reasons:
economic recovery faster than expectation, additional lines of business in cup noodles, and the addition of dairy factory in 2011. We raised price target to Rp4,000/share from Rp3,550/share (using the SOTP method), but maintain hold recommendation. Currently, INDF is trading premium against JCI, with PE'10 of 15.7x vs 14.7 JCI. Maintain HOLD
Rp37 trillion in FY09, down by 4.3% YoY, in line with our estimates. Consumer
Branded Product (CBP) Group is the biggest contributor (32.4% to total sales). The
sales will be down by 12% YoY to Rp34 trillion without involve of dairy division which was acquired in December 2008. However, gross profit rose 12.8% YoY to Rp 5 trillion due to decreased in commodity prices and strengthening of Rupiah. Meanwhile, net income increased by 100.7% YoY to Rp2 trillion in FY09, supporting by strong operating income and gain from foreign exchange amounting to Rp731 billion (vs FY08 foreign exchange loss Rp713 billion).
• Financial position remains solid. EBITDA rose by 19.2% YoY to Rp6.6 trillion, but
interest coverage declined to 4.3x in FY09 (from 4.8x in FY08). Leverage level improved with net geaaring dropped to 0.83x (from 1.09x). This shows INDF’s financial condition remain solid.
• Maintain HOLD. We revised up INDF’s projection due to the following reasons:
economic recovery faster than expectation, additional lines of business in cup noodles, and the addition of dairy factory in 2011. We raised price target to Rp4,000/share from Rp3,550/share (using the SOTP method), but maintain hold recommendation. Currently, INDF is trading premium against JCI, with PE'10 of 15.7x vs 14.7 JCI. Maintain HOLD
Danareksa Gajah Tunggal Margins upgrade
Reiterate BUY, TP raised to Rp1,090
We raise our FY10-11E EPS estimates by 29%-22% on higher gross margin estimates. Accordingly, our TP is upped to Rp1,090, implying an attractive valuation of 6.46x-5.4x PER and 1.18x-0.97x PBV. We remain a Buyer of the stock, confident that the company will be able to further expand following its debt restructuring. We forecast rapid sales growth of 17% 2-yr CAGR in 2010-2011 as the domestic tire market takes off. The shares have performed well this year – up 69.4% YTD – but we believe there is more to come as the stock still trades below its book value.
Higher gross margin estimates
Following the announcement of the 2009 results, we have looked again at the company’s
strategies and come away with a favorable impression. Margins are improving and we believe there is more room for the company to continue growing its high margin business. This prompts us to upgrade our gross margin estimate to a very decent 17.9% for 2010, supported by GJTL’s commitment to expand sales through its 12 Carrefour and 31 TireZone outlets. Also helping to boost margins are the firm rupiah (some 75% of GJTL’s production costs are US$ related). Note that we forecast higher margins despite higher forecast rubber prices that will push up average raw material unit costs by 21% this year. In our view, GJTL will remain successful at passing on its rising material costs to its customers - albeit with a six-month time lag.
Domestic 4W tire sales: a strong start to the year
4W tire sales shot up in the first two months of the year, growing a spectacular 53.3% YoY to 7.9mn tires, as domestic economic conditions improved further. And with the economic outlook increasingly rosy, we upgrade our sales volume estimates for radial and bias tires by 15.2%-4.8% in 2010, largely compensating for softer selling prices compared to our previous forecast. All in all, we forecast tire sales revenues to grow 18.2% this year.
Good FY09 results
As expected, the FY09 results were very good. The EBITDA of Rp 1.5 trillion was 27% above our previous expectation, supported by a much higher-than-expected gross margin of 23% (mainly due to lower raw material prices). The balance sheet is also in very good shape and net gearing at the end of 2009 stood at 121%, somewhat lower than our previous estimate of 155%.
We raise our FY10-11E EPS estimates by 29%-22% on higher gross margin estimates. Accordingly, our TP is upped to Rp1,090, implying an attractive valuation of 6.46x-5.4x PER and 1.18x-0.97x PBV. We remain a Buyer of the stock, confident that the company will be able to further expand following its debt restructuring. We forecast rapid sales growth of 17% 2-yr CAGR in 2010-2011 as the domestic tire market takes off. The shares have performed well this year – up 69.4% YTD – but we believe there is more to come as the stock still trades below its book value.
Higher gross margin estimates
Following the announcement of the 2009 results, we have looked again at the company’s
strategies and come away with a favorable impression. Margins are improving and we believe there is more room for the company to continue growing its high margin business. This prompts us to upgrade our gross margin estimate to a very decent 17.9% for 2010, supported by GJTL’s commitment to expand sales through its 12 Carrefour and 31 TireZone outlets. Also helping to boost margins are the firm rupiah (some 75% of GJTL’s production costs are US$ related). Note that we forecast higher margins despite higher forecast rubber prices that will push up average raw material unit costs by 21% this year. In our view, GJTL will remain successful at passing on its rising material costs to its customers - albeit with a six-month time lag.
Domestic 4W tire sales: a strong start to the year
4W tire sales shot up in the first two months of the year, growing a spectacular 53.3% YoY to 7.9mn tires, as domestic economic conditions improved further. And with the economic outlook increasingly rosy, we upgrade our sales volume estimates for radial and bias tires by 15.2%-4.8% in 2010, largely compensating for softer selling prices compared to our previous forecast. All in all, we forecast tire sales revenues to grow 18.2% this year.
Good FY09 results
As expected, the FY09 results were very good. The EBITDA of Rp 1.5 trillion was 27% above our previous expectation, supported by a much higher-than-expected gross margin of 23% (mainly due to lower raw material prices). The balance sheet is also in very good shape and net gearing at the end of 2009 stood at 121%, somewhat lower than our previous estimate of 155%.
Citigroup Unilever Indonesia (UNVR.JK) Sell: FY09 In-Line with Our Estimates
No surprises in FY09 – Unilever Indonesia (ULI) reported FY09 net profit of Rp3trn (+27% YoY), on 17% higher revenue growth YoY to Rp18.2trn, in-line with our expectation. Gross profit increased 19% YoY to Rp9trn and operating profit grew 23% YoY to Rp4.2trn, with gross margin and operating margin improving to 49.6% and 23.1% respectively, from 49.0% and 22.0% in FY08. Margin improvement was on the back of product mix, as well as lower commodity prices.
Strong 4Q09 – The strong Rupiah resulted in margin expansion in 4Q09. On 4% higher revenue QoQ (+24% YoY) to Rp4.7trn in 4Q09, gross profit rose 10% QoQ (+40% YoY) to Rp2.5trn, expanding the gross margin to 52.4%, from 49.7% in 3Q09 and 46.2% in 4Q08. Opex was 20% higher QoQ (+17% YoY), underpinned by higher marketing and selling expenses. Thus, operating profit was 2% lower QoQ, but was 92% higher YoY, at Rp1.1trn. Operating margin was 22.4% in 4Q09, lower than the 23.7% in 3Q09, but higher compared to 14.4% in 4Q08.
Division breakdown – The Household & Personal Care (HPC) division accounted for 76% of total sales, with the remaining 24% from Food & Beverages (F&B). Each division grew 17% in FY09. HPC posted higher margins in FY09, with gross margin and operating margin at 52.3% and 31.2%, expanded from 51.6% and 29.2% in FY08, respectively. The F&B division had a gross margin of 40.8% and operating margin at 16.7% in FY09, improved from 40.6% and 15.1% respectively in FY08.
Net cash, with no debt – As at the end of 2009, ULI had a cash balance of Rp858bn, with no debt. Its inventory turnover improved to 52 days, from 58 days
in 2008. Assuming a 100% payout ratio, we estimate a 3% dividend yield.
Maintain Sell – Our DCF-based target price of Rp11,327 equates to 19x 2011E P/E. We view that, despite the company’s strong performance and high ROE (above 90%), the stock at current levels provides limited upside potential.
Strong 4Q09 – The strong Rupiah resulted in margin expansion in 4Q09. On 4% higher revenue QoQ (+24% YoY) to Rp4.7trn in 4Q09, gross profit rose 10% QoQ (+40% YoY) to Rp2.5trn, expanding the gross margin to 52.4%, from 49.7% in 3Q09 and 46.2% in 4Q08. Opex was 20% higher QoQ (+17% YoY), underpinned by higher marketing and selling expenses. Thus, operating profit was 2% lower QoQ, but was 92% higher YoY, at Rp1.1trn. Operating margin was 22.4% in 4Q09, lower than the 23.7% in 3Q09, but higher compared to 14.4% in 4Q08.
Division breakdown – The Household & Personal Care (HPC) division accounted for 76% of total sales, with the remaining 24% from Food & Beverages (F&B). Each division grew 17% in FY09. HPC posted higher margins in FY09, with gross margin and operating margin at 52.3% and 31.2%, expanded from 51.6% and 29.2% in FY08, respectively. The F&B division had a gross margin of 40.8% and operating margin at 16.7% in FY09, improved from 40.6% and 15.1% respectively in FY08.
Net cash, with no debt – As at the end of 2009, ULI had a cash balance of Rp858bn, with no debt. Its inventory turnover improved to 52 days, from 58 days
in 2008. Assuming a 100% payout ratio, we estimate a 3% dividend yield.
Maintain Sell – Our DCF-based target price of Rp11,327 equates to 19x 2011E P/E. We view that, despite the company’s strong performance and high ROE (above 90%), the stock at current levels provides limited upside potential.
JP Morgan - ISAT (TP Rp5,800) - J.P.Morgan: 4Q09 depreciation drags net income down - ALERT
4Q09 results above estimates but maintain Neutral: Indosat reported headline financials on 8th March 2010 with 4Q09 revenues 4.3% higher than our estimates but down 0.5% y/y. 4Q09 EBITDA was 11.6% ahead of our estimates but declined by 6.9% y/y. EBITDA margin at 48.6% was up 3.7 percentage points q/q. Depreciation
expense increased by Rp456 bn, from Rp1,345 bn in 3Q09 to Rp1,801 bn in 4Q09. This managed to more than offset the upside surprise on EBITDA and thus Indosat reported a recurring loss of Rp26 bn in 4Q09 as compared to our forecast of Rp191 recurring income.
• FY09 EBITDA declined by 5.6%: FY09 revenues at Rp18,393 bn declined by 1.4% y/y. EBITDA at Rp8,774 bn was down 5.6% y/y while EBITDA margin declined by 2.1 percentage points to 47.7%. Recurring income at Rp705 bn was 23.9% below our forecast at Rp926 bn. Total wireless subs at 33.1 mn were in line with our estimates.
Indosat added 4.4 mn wireless subs in 4Q09 but total subscribers were down 9.3% y/y due to cleanup exercise conducted in the first three quarters of 2009.
• Impact on the stock price: We expect to see some upward revisions to consensus forecasts as analysts might have been waiting for full financials which have now been published. The results were better than expected and management seems confident of further recovery in 2010. However, we are cautious on the share price in the near term due to full valuations and risks of a price war. Telkom remains our preferred pick in Indonesia. Our estimates are currently under review.
• Price target, valuation, key risks: Our December 2010 target price for Indosat at Rp5,800 is DCF based. We use a WACC of 13.6% and a terminal growth rate of 3.0% in our DCF assumptions. At our target price Indosat would be trading at 2010E/11E adjusted PER and EV/EBITDA of 27.3x/14.1x and 6.0x/5.0x, providing a dividend yield
of 1.8%/3.5%. Increase in capex, irrational mobile competition and shortfall of demand for broadband services are the key risks to our target price.
expense increased by Rp456 bn, from Rp1,345 bn in 3Q09 to Rp1,801 bn in 4Q09. This managed to more than offset the upside surprise on EBITDA and thus Indosat reported a recurring loss of Rp26 bn in 4Q09 as compared to our forecast of Rp191 recurring income.
• FY09 EBITDA declined by 5.6%: FY09 revenues at Rp18,393 bn declined by 1.4% y/y. EBITDA at Rp8,774 bn was down 5.6% y/y while EBITDA margin declined by 2.1 percentage points to 47.7%. Recurring income at Rp705 bn was 23.9% below our forecast at Rp926 bn. Total wireless subs at 33.1 mn were in line with our estimates.
Indosat added 4.4 mn wireless subs in 4Q09 but total subscribers were down 9.3% y/y due to cleanup exercise conducted in the first three quarters of 2009.
• Impact on the stock price: We expect to see some upward revisions to consensus forecasts as analysts might have been waiting for full financials which have now been published. The results were better than expected and management seems confident of further recovery in 2010. However, we are cautious on the share price in the near term due to full valuations and risks of a price war. Telkom remains our preferred pick in Indonesia. Our estimates are currently under review.
• Price target, valuation, key risks: Our December 2010 target price for Indosat at Rp5,800 is DCF based. We use a WACC of 13.6% and a terminal growth rate of 3.0% in our DCF assumptions. At our target price Indosat would be trading at 2010E/11E adjusted PER and EV/EBITDA of 27.3x/14.1x and 6.0x/5.0x, providing a dividend yield
of 1.8%/3.5%. Increase in capex, irrational mobile competition and shortfall of demand for broadband services are the key risks to our target price.
DBS Indo Tambang: Hold; Rp38,600; TP Rp25,475; ITMG IJ
To distribute total dividend of US$234.88m
According to Bisnis Indonesia , Indo Tambang (ITMG) will pay a total dividend of US$234.88m (c.70% payout based on FY09 net profit of US$335.6m), translating into total DPS of Rp1,964 (c.5.0% dividend yield). The company had previously paid interim DPS of Rp678 on 3 November 2009 and remaining DPS of Rp1,286 (c.3.3% dividend yield) will be paid on 19 May 2010.
ITMG also revealed that it targets to increase coal production by 9.5% y-o-y to 23m tons this year, from 21m tons last year. This is slightly higher than our current forecast of 21m tons, as we have not imputed contribution from its new mines. The company has also allocated US$101m for capital expenditure, to be financed internally, most of which will be for infrastructure and a coal washing plant for Trubaindo
According to Bisnis Indonesia , Indo Tambang (ITMG) will pay a total dividend of US$234.88m (c.70% payout based on FY09 net profit of US$335.6m), translating into total DPS of Rp1,964 (c.5.0% dividend yield). The company had previously paid interim DPS of Rp678 on 3 November 2009 and remaining DPS of Rp1,286 (c.3.3% dividend yield) will be paid on 19 May 2010.
ITMG also revealed that it targets to increase coal production by 9.5% y-o-y to 23m tons this year, from 21m tons last year. This is slightly higher than our current forecast of 21m tons, as we have not imputed contribution from its new mines. The company has also allocated US$101m for capital expenditure, to be financed internally, most of which will be for infrastructure and a coal washing plant for Trubaindo
DBS Indosat: Fully Valued; Rp5,500; TP Rp5,400; ISAT IJ
Thin margins, risk of price war
• ISAT will continue to focus on its data division, where there is growth potential
• Raised FY10F-FY11F net profit by 31% and 64%, respectively
• Risk of another price war in the SMS segment, but ISAT is still highly geared
• Raise TP to Rp5, 400 after rolling over valuation window to FY11F, but maintain
FULLY VALUED
Focus on data. ISAT continues to focus on its data division where there is growth potential. It has climbed back from a weak 1H09 when it churned out low ARPU subscribers, and is back on its feet with 4Q09 revenue growing 11% q-o-q and EBITDA margin widening 5ppt. Consequently, we raised FY10F revenue growth to 9% (vs. 5%) and EBITDA margin to 48% (vs. 46%).
But lingering risk of another price war. Although the data strategy has worked for ISAT, we are concerned that it has entered another round of price war in Indonesia , but in the SMS segment (vs. voice previously). Telcos are offering free SMS (e.g. 100 a day) at minimal or negligible costs. Hence, we raised ISAT’s FY10F capex to USD1.1b (vs. USD840m) in anticipation of higher traffic volumes.
High gearing casting a shadow. We also raised our target price to Rp5,400 (12% WACC; 1% terminal growth), but maintain our FULLY VALUED call. ISAT’s FY10F net gearing of 1.3x and 2.7x net debt/EBITDA are high, while its thin 7% net margin makes it vulnerable to margin and revenue swings. Also, it is trading at high 22x FY10F PE and 6x EV/EBITDA multiples.
• ISAT will continue to focus on its data division, where there is growth potential
• Raised FY10F-FY11F net profit by 31% and 64%, respectively
• Risk of another price war in the SMS segment, but ISAT is still highly geared
• Raise TP to Rp5, 400 after rolling over valuation window to FY11F, but maintain
FULLY VALUED
Focus on data. ISAT continues to focus on its data division where there is growth potential. It has climbed back from a weak 1H09 when it churned out low ARPU subscribers, and is back on its feet with 4Q09 revenue growing 11% q-o-q and EBITDA margin widening 5ppt. Consequently, we raised FY10F revenue growth to 9% (vs. 5%) and EBITDA margin to 48% (vs. 46%).
But lingering risk of another price war. Although the data strategy has worked for ISAT, we are concerned that it has entered another round of price war in Indonesia , but in the SMS segment (vs. voice previously). Telcos are offering free SMS (e.g. 100 a day) at minimal or negligible costs. Hence, we raised ISAT’s FY10F capex to USD1.1b (vs. USD840m) in anticipation of higher traffic volumes.
High gearing casting a shadow. We also raised our target price to Rp5,400 (12% WACC; 1% terminal growth), but maintain our FULLY VALUED call. ISAT’s FY10F net gearing of 1.3x and 2.7x net debt/EBITDA are high, while its thin 7% net margin makes it vulnerable to margin and revenue swings. Also, it is trading at high 22x FY10F PE and 6x EV/EBITDA multiples.
CIMB Indosat Quick takes - Focusing on non-voice and ex-Java
(ISAT IJ / ISAT.JK, NEUTRAL - Maintained, Rp5,500 - Tgt. Rp6,000, Telecommunications)
Maintain NEUTRAL on Indosat. Following the release of operational statistics and a recent results conference call, we cut our FY10-12 core net profit estimates by 6-10% and DCF-based (WACC 12.8%) target price from Rp6,340 to Rp6,000 after lowering our margin expectations and raising depreciation assumptions. The telco outlined its strategy for FY10 which hinges largely on capturing data revenue and higher-value users and expansion to 12 cities outside Java. It also hopes to cement its leadership in large screen/wireless broadband, although we are more cautious about the economics of this segment. Indosat is trading at a small premium to its peers and we would be looking for signs of a sustainable turnaround for stock re-rating.
Maintain NEUTRAL on Indosat. Following the release of operational statistics and a recent results conference call, we cut our FY10-12 core net profit estimates by 6-10% and DCF-based (WACC 12.8%) target price from Rp6,340 to Rp6,000 after lowering our margin expectations and raising depreciation assumptions. The telco outlined its strategy for FY10 which hinges largely on capturing data revenue and higher-value users and expansion to 12 cities outside Java. It also hopes to cement its leadership in large screen/wireless broadband, although we are more cautious about the economics of this segment. Indosat is trading at a small premium to its peers and we would be looking for signs of a sustainable turnaround for stock re-rating.
Deutsche Astra Agro Lestari : Bullish outlook; upgrade to Buy
Upgrade to Buy (from Sell) rating
This upgrade reflects buoyant outlook for Astra Agro's earnings. We rate the company as one of main beneficiaries from bullish palm oil prices given that Astra derives almost its entire earnings from palm oil, and is supported by excellent management and a healthy balance sheet. We forecast net core earnings to grow strongly by 37% p.a. in the next three years on the back of bullish palm oil prices. Overall, the stock is attractive, offering 30% potential upside from current levels.
Higher CPO price assumptions
Our bullish outlook is supported by our expectation that palm oil and other edible oil supply will surprise the market to the downside while demand should remain at the very least robust (global economic recovery and greater biofuel consumption). Overall, we have raised CPO price forecasts by 17-35% for 2010-12F.
Increasing EBIT forecasts by 16-36% for 2010-12F
This earnings revision reflects higher palm oil price assumptions, which are more than offset higher production costs.
Raising target price to Rp31,800 (from Rp15,200)
This increase is due to earnings forecast upgrades to reflect mainly higher CPO prices and lower COE. This TP is based on the ROE/COE methodology with a COE of 15.9% (from 17.4%). The key risk is the company’s inability to secure the necessary land bank to expand plantations. (See p.4 for details on valuation and risks).
This upgrade reflects buoyant outlook for Astra Agro's earnings. We rate the company as one of main beneficiaries from bullish palm oil prices given that Astra derives almost its entire earnings from palm oil, and is supported by excellent management and a healthy balance sheet. We forecast net core earnings to grow strongly by 37% p.a. in the next three years on the back of bullish palm oil prices. Overall, the stock is attractive, offering 30% potential upside from current levels.
Higher CPO price assumptions
Our bullish outlook is supported by our expectation that palm oil and other edible oil supply will surprise the market to the downside while demand should remain at the very least robust (global economic recovery and greater biofuel consumption). Overall, we have raised CPO price forecasts by 17-35% for 2010-12F.
Increasing EBIT forecasts by 16-36% for 2010-12F
This earnings revision reflects higher palm oil price assumptions, which are more than offset higher production costs.
Raising target price to Rp31,800 (from Rp15,200)
This increase is due to earnings forecast upgrades to reflect mainly higher CPO prices and lower COE. This TP is based on the ROE/COE methodology with a COE of 15.9% (from 17.4%). The key risk is the company’s inability to secure the necessary land bank to expand plantations. (See p.4 for details on valuation and risks).
Mandiri Sekuritas BBNI: Banking on better loan quality
Our latest talk with the CFO of the bank affirmed the bank is on the right path toward brighter performance in the future. Improved loan underwriting processes and consistent efforts to clean up its bad debts are expected to bring down its NPL’s in the future. This will lead to lower provisioning expenses, thus higher earnings going forward. We therefore upgraded our net profit forecast for the bank for 2010 and 2011 as well as our TP to Rp2,900/share. Maintain buy.
Minimal additional NPL expected going forward.., Global financial crisis and slower economic growth in 2009 have negatively affected the loan quality of BBNI during the year. Excluding writeoff, gross NPL increased by Rp3.5tn in 2009 (vs additional loans of Rp8.8tn). We expect better loan quality going forward banking on brighter economic outlook for 2010 and 2011 as well as the management’s serious efforts to improve the quality of loan underwriting processes.
,… and further improvement in coverage ratio. Meanwhile, the bank’s coverage ratio has improved significantly, indicating the implementation of a more conservative policy. Exhibit 1 highlighted that the provisioning coverage per category of loans which continously increased for the past three years. We expect such trend to continue, reaching coverage ! ratio of 141% in 2010F and 146% in 2011F, respectively.
Forecast upgraded. We adjusted our forecast for BBNI on brighter outlook. Despite the projected lower net interest income due to lower margin generated from its corporate loans, we still upgraded our net profit on the back of lower provisioning expenses.
Maintain a buy. As a result of such upgrade, we increased our TP to Rp2,900/share, translating into 2010F P/BV of 2.1x and PER of 12.6x. At our TP, BBNI still trades below its peers (including PNBN which is currently trading at 2010F P/BV of 2.2x and PER of 18.5x. Please note that PNBN has much lower coverage ratio of 71.2% and higher NPL of 4.8% at end Sep09). Meanwhile, there is a market talk that the current President D! irector o f the bank will move to BBRI. We have no worries on this rumor as we also heard that the replacement will likely come from one of the BOC and BOD team. Maintain buy.
Minimal additional NPL expected going forward.., Global financial crisis and slower economic growth in 2009 have negatively affected the loan quality of BBNI during the year. Excluding writeoff, gross NPL increased by Rp3.5tn in 2009 (vs additional loans of Rp8.8tn). We expect better loan quality going forward banking on brighter economic outlook for 2010 and 2011 as well as the management’s serious efforts to improve the quality of loan underwriting processes.
,… and further improvement in coverage ratio. Meanwhile, the bank’s coverage ratio has improved significantly, indicating the implementation of a more conservative policy. Exhibit 1 highlighted that the provisioning coverage per category of loans which continously increased for the past three years. We expect such trend to continue, reaching coverage ! ratio of 141% in 2010F and 146% in 2011F, respectively.
Forecast upgraded. We adjusted our forecast for BBNI on brighter outlook. Despite the projected lower net interest income due to lower margin generated from its corporate loans, we still upgraded our net profit on the back of lower provisioning expenses.
Maintain a buy. As a result of such upgrade, we increased our TP to Rp2,900/share, translating into 2010F P/BV of 2.1x and PER of 12.6x. At our TP, BBNI still trades below its peers (including PNBN which is currently trading at 2010F P/BV of 2.2x and PER of 18.5x. Please note that PNBN has much lower coverage ratio of 71.2% and higher NPL of 4.8% at end Sep09). Meanwhile, there is a market talk that the current President D! irector o f the bank will move to BBRI. We have no worries on this rumor as we also heard that the replacement will likely come from one of the BOC and BOD team. Maintain buy.
Mandiri Sekuritas Wijaya Karya: FY09 net profit grew 21.3% yoy, within consensus expectation (WIKA, Rp355, Buy, Rp460)
FY09 revenue was relatively flat compare with FY08 (+0.5% yoy), yet gain from joint operation was up to Rp22bn from Rp3bn loss in FY08. This is lower than our and consensus estimates. We noticed that gross margin improved (to 9.8% from 6.8% in 2008). We believe it was due to cost transfer to customer, given higher tax rate (around 2.1% from sales in 2009 vs 1.2% in 2008), and better quality of projects they obtained in 2009. Thus down to bottom line, the figure was inline with consensus estimates, and slightly above ours.
WIKA has Rp1.2tn cash position (+15.2% yoy) and total debt of Rp156bn (-75.3% yoy) as per FY09. It translates to cash/share of Rp180, or 50.8% from its current share price. We currently still have a Buy recommendation for WIKA, with our FY10F revenue and net profit growth forecast of around 12.4% yoy and 48.9% yoy. WIKA is currently trading at PER10F of 7.7x.
WIKA has Rp1.2tn cash position (+15.2% yoy) and total debt of Rp156bn (-75.3% yoy) as per FY09. It translates to cash/share of Rp180, or 50.8% from its current share price. We currently still have a Buy recommendation for WIKA, with our FY10F revenue and net profit growth forecast of around 12.4% yoy and 48.9% yoy. WIKA is currently trading at PER10F of 7.7x.
Mandiri Sekuritas Jasa Marga: strong FY09 results, above our estimate and consensus: (JSMR, Rp1,780, Buy, TP: Rp2,100)
JSMR reported revenue FY09 of Rp3.7tn (+10%yoy) due to higher traffic and an increasing tariff in Sep-09. This figure is slightly above our expectation and consensus. Traffic volume in 2009 grew by 4.1%yoy reached 916.0mn of vehicles.
The company booked extraordinary income of Rp124bn, boosted net margin to 27% compared with 21% in previous year, meanwhile operating margin and pre-tax margin relatively constant. Consequently, net income was Rp993bn (+40%yoy), above our estimate and consensus.
Therefore, with traffic growth targeted 7.0%yoy, JSMR targets revenue FY10F may reach Rp4.3tn (+16.2%).
Currently, JSMR is trading at P/E10F of 9.0x and P/B10F of 1.5x. Maintain Buy.
The company booked extraordinary income of Rp124bn, boosted net margin to 27% compared with 21% in previous year, meanwhile operating margin and pre-tax margin relatively constant. Consequently, net income was Rp993bn (+40%yoy), above our estimate and consensus.
Therefore, with traffic growth targeted 7.0%yoy, JSMR targets revenue FY10F may reach Rp4.3tn (+16.2%).
Currently, JSMR is trading at P/E10F of 9.0x and P/B10F of 1.5x. Maintain Buy.
Mandiri Sekuritas Gudang Garam: FY09F net income was in line with our estimate, but 13% above consensus (GGRM, Rp25,500, Buy, TP: Rp30,000/share)
Gudang Garam posted revenues of Rp33tn (+9.0%yoy, +11.5%qoq), this translates to net income of Rp3.5tn (+83.8%yoy, -5.9%qoq).
Despite of qoq growth in sales, 4Q09 gross profit was relatively flat while 4Q09 operating profit declined by 17.5%qoq. As the company increased 4Q09 selling expense by 148%qoq, we think the company was aggressively promoting their products through advertising and sales discounts. We will confirm it later after analyst meeting.
We still maintain Buy recommendation on GGRM which is trading at PER10-11F of 11.6-10.2x.
Despite of qoq growth in sales, 4Q09 gross profit was relatively flat while 4Q09 operating profit declined by 17.5%qoq. As the company increased 4Q09 selling expense by 148%qoq, we think the company was aggressively promoting their products through advertising and sales discounts. We will confirm it later after analyst meeting.
We still maintain Buy recommendation on GGRM which is trading at PER10-11F of 11.6-10.2x.
Mandiri Sekuritas AKR Corporindo: FY09F net income was in line with our estimate, but 7% below consensus (AKRA, Rp950, Buy, TP: Rp1,300/share)
AKRA posted FY09 revenues of Rp8.96tn (-5.4%yoy, +11.9%qoq). This translates to net income of Rp275bn (+30.8%yoy, +1.9%qoq)
Revenues increase was due to strong 2H09 sales supported by fuel sales volume that up by 53% due to strong demand from coal companies in Kalimantan. This positive result is slightly negated by weakening performance in chemical distribution division.
The company posted forex loss reversal from Rp149bn loss to be Rp50bn gain due to strengthening Rp. As we expect strengthening Rp in 2010F, we expect this forex gain will be booked again in 2010F. Starting in 2010, the company will also start to enjoy tax reduction benefit of 5% due to higher floating shares as a results of last right issue.
We still maintain Buy recommendation on AKRA which is trading at PER10-11F of 9.5-7.5x.
Revenues increase was due to strong 2H09 sales supported by fuel sales volume that up by 53% due to strong demand from coal companies in Kalimantan. This positive result is slightly negated by weakening performance in chemical distribution division.
The company posted forex loss reversal from Rp149bn loss to be Rp50bn gain due to strengthening Rp. As we expect strengthening Rp in 2010F, we expect this forex gain will be booked again in 2010F. Starting in 2010, the company will also start to enjoy tax reduction benefit of 5% due to higher floating shares as a results of last right issue.
We still maintain Buy recommendation on AKRA which is trading at PER10-11F of 9.5-7.5x.
Mandiri Sekuritas Medco Energi: FY09 net profit fell 48.0% yoy, lower than consensus estimates (MEDC, Rp2,600, Neutral, TP: Rp2,650)
MEDC’s FY09 revenue drop 48.0% yoy to US$668mn. This is inline with ours yet below consensus estimates, as it only represents 83.6% from consensus’ FY09F estimates. Lower top line is due to significantly lower net oil and gas sales (-
44.1% yoy), chemical and other petroleum products (-77.9% yoy) since there was no more income from drilling operation. The company reported that hydrocarbon lifting falls 16.7% yoy to 52.8 mboepd, as well as average realized selling price of crude oil by 36.6% yoy to US$64/bbl and gas price by 26.1% yoy to US$3.1/mmbtu.
Gross margin was slightly down to 34.3% in FY09 compare with FY08 of 38.8%. Down to operating, the company was not able to lower its expenses (+1.6%), thus margin is less half of FY08. The company reported net profit of US$19mn, which is above ours yet below consensus estimates of some US$38mn. It is higher than our estimates as we did not factored in several irregular items in our forecast, namely net gain on disposal of subsidiaries of US$30.6mn, gain on short term investment of US$24.1mn, and gain from derivative transaction of US$6.7mn. MEDC is currently trading at EV/2P of US$3.4/boe, as it transfers some of its contingent reserves to 2P (+45% yoy).
44.1% yoy), chemical and other petroleum products (-77.9% yoy) since there was no more income from drilling operation. The company reported that hydrocarbon lifting falls 16.7% yoy to 52.8 mboepd, as well as average realized selling price of crude oil by 36.6% yoy to US$64/bbl and gas price by 26.1% yoy to US$3.1/mmbtu.
Gross margin was slightly down to 34.3% in FY09 compare with FY08 of 38.8%. Down to operating, the company was not able to lower its expenses (+1.6%), thus margin is less half of FY08. The company reported net profit of US$19mn, which is above ours yet below consensus estimates of some US$38mn. It is higher than our estimates as we did not factored in several irregular items in our forecast, namely net gain on disposal of subsidiaries of US$30.6mn, gain on short term investment of US$24.1mn, and gain from derivative transaction of US$6.7mn. MEDC is currently trading at EV/2P of US$3.4/boe, as it transfers some of its contingent reserves to 2P (+45% yoy).
Mandiri Sekuritas Bakrie Telecom: Lower than expected FY09 net earnings (BTEL, Rp144, Neutral, TP: Rp128)
BTEL booked net revenue FY09 of Rp2.7tn (+25%yoy) in line with our estimates but lower than consensus. Gross revenues from telecommunication went up by 24.5%yoy, supported by Esia-prepaid service, which grew by 29.2%yoy. Net revenues from interconnection service amounted to Rp77bn (+348%yoy).
Operating expenses went up by 34.6%yoy, due to high depreciation expense, which up by 126.5% amounted to Rp979.2bn. The high expense was triggered from changes in accounting methodology of fixed assets. Hence, net fixed asset went up by 75.6%yoy.
Consequently, net income fell to Rp98bn (-28%yoy) and lower margin compared with previous year.
Subscribers at end 2009 were 10.6mn (+45.2%yoy) and targeted to become 14mn at end of 2010. BTEL plans to issue dollar denominated bonds worth up to US$250mn in 1H10. The fund will be used to finance capex 2010, which has allocated of US$200mn, and the remaining will be used to finance the operation.
BTEL trades at PER10F of 26.0x and EV/EBITDA10F of 6.3x, pricey for a stock which has underperformed and missed expectations widely.
Operating expenses went up by 34.6%yoy, due to high depreciation expense, which up by 126.5% amounted to Rp979.2bn. The high expense was triggered from changes in accounting methodology of fixed assets. Hence, net fixed asset went up by 75.6%yoy.
Consequently, net income fell to Rp98bn (-28%yoy) and lower margin compared with previous year.
Subscribers at end 2009 were 10.6mn (+45.2%yoy) and targeted to become 14mn at end of 2010. BTEL plans to issue dollar denominated bonds worth up to US$250mn in 1H10. The fund will be used to finance capex 2010, which has allocated of US$200mn, and the remaining will be used to finance the operation.
BTEL trades at PER10F of 26.0x and EV/EBITDA10F of 6.3x, pricey for a stock which has underperformed and missed expectations widely.
Mandiri Sekuritas Perusahaan Gas : Tariff will increase 15% from April 1, 2010, will input price follow (PGAS, Rp4,225, Neutral, TP:Rp4,650)
In a mediation facilitated by Ministry of Industry, PGAS stood on its plan to raise its gas tariff by an average of 15%. PGAS applied a different pricing to different industry e.g. food and beverage industry tariff was US$3.8/MMBTU now US$4.1/MMBTU, while steel industry now is US$6.7/MMBTU. PGAS reasoned that its input cost now is US$5/MMBTU. PGAS will also apply a surcharge of 300% for gas consumed exceeding the quota, and PGAS required two months upfront payment (Investor Daily)
As has been written in our note yesterday, we are confidence of PGAS ability to raise its tariff. However, now our concerns have moved on to the supply availability and potential threat of input price increase. Conoco Phillips 400 MMSCFD supply to PGAS was priced at US$1.85/MMBTU signed in 2007. PGAS would be the least priority for Conoco to supply as their price is the cheapest. PGAS can not demand the agreed supply as the agreement is based on the gas availability. We have a Neutral recommendation for PGAS. At Rp4,225/share, PGAS is traded at 19.8x, and 18.7x PER10F and PER11F, respectively
As has been written in our note yesterday, we are confidence of PGAS ability to raise its tariff. However, now our concerns have moved on to the supply availability and potential threat of input price increase. Conoco Phillips 400 MMSCFD supply to PGAS was priced at US$1.85/MMBTU signed in 2007. PGAS would be the least priority for Conoco to supply as their price is the cheapest. PGAS can not demand the agreed supply as the agreement is based on the gas availability. We have a Neutral recommendation for PGAS. At Rp4,225/share, PGAS is traded at 19.8x, and 18.7x PER10F and PER11F, respectively
JP Morgan - Delta Dunia: a stab in the dark, only for the brave
A what-if analysis: what-if DOID enters into a 1:1 non-cash share swap deal for a 90% stake in Berau Coal, currently held by Recapital.
The outcome: The market could be looking at a bigger company with a forecast net income of Rp1900bn for FY10 and Rp2400bn for FY11. On 2x the number of shares in DOID at Rp980, the market cap would be equal to Rp13.3trn, implying potential P/E ratio of 7.0x and 5.6x FY10-11.
The forecast: Most conservative consensus forecast on DOID calls for Rp851bn and Rp948bn net profit for FY10-11. When we met with the management recently, they are still endorsing such forecast.
Stevanus Juanda (analyst) has performed back-of-the-envelope analysis on Berau Coal, thinking that the company could deliver Rp1050bn and Rp1435bn net profit for FY10-11, assuming a US$300mn debt on the balance sheet. This forecast is driven by an EBITDA forecast of around Rp1.5trn and Rp1.9trn for FY10-11, based on US$90 and US$95 coal price for JFY11-12; 15.4mn and 17.0mn ton coal production in FY10-11. Steve’s estimate appears conservative compared to the comment made by Recapital CEO Mr.Rosan in January 2010, when he said EBITDA estimate should reach US$340mn on 17mn ton coal production.
The swap ratio: I always wonder why DOID presentation material contains a page where the management explained about Recapital’s deal on Berau Coal (attached); now I am starting to understand. One of the bullet point on page 5 confirmed a reported transation value of US$1.4bn EV, financed with vendor support, mezzanine and senior debt. If we assume a US$300mn debt at Berau upon the day of the swap, the implied equity value will be about US$1100mn or Rp10,920bn.
DOID shares were placed at Rp1400, or a market cap of around Rp9,500bn. That is how I arrive at a hypothetical swap ratio of 1:1, between DOID and Berau Coal.
The sensitivity: What if the swap ratio is unfavorable to DOID shareholders? If we take an extreme ratio of two DOID shares equal to one Berau Coal, the enlarged number of shares for DOID will be around 20,370mn. At Rp980 and 20,370mn shares, the market cap for DOID will be around Rp19.9trn with the same net profit forecast of Rp1900bn for FY10 and Rp2400bn for FY11. The implied P/E for this “less-favorable-scenario” is 10.5x and 8.4x for FY10-11; still looks manageable for me.
The risk: (1) Sentimental sell-off: angry shareholders looking to unload at any price, (2) Seeking cash from the minority: my assumption is for a non-cash deal, where current minority holders need not top up any cash. (3) Very unfavorable swap ratio, valuing Berau Coal at a big premium compared to the pronounced EV value of US$1.4bn, and DOID at a big discount to recent placement price of Rp1400.
The outcome: The market could be looking at a bigger company with a forecast net income of Rp1900bn for FY10 and Rp2400bn for FY11. On 2x the number of shares in DOID at Rp980, the market cap would be equal to Rp13.3trn, implying potential P/E ratio of 7.0x and 5.6x FY10-11.
The forecast: Most conservative consensus forecast on DOID calls for Rp851bn and Rp948bn net profit for FY10-11. When we met with the management recently, they are still endorsing such forecast.
Stevanus Juanda (analyst) has performed back-of-the-envelope analysis on Berau Coal, thinking that the company could deliver Rp1050bn and Rp1435bn net profit for FY10-11, assuming a US$300mn debt on the balance sheet. This forecast is driven by an EBITDA forecast of around Rp1.5trn and Rp1.9trn for FY10-11, based on US$90 and US$95 coal price for JFY11-12; 15.4mn and 17.0mn ton coal production in FY10-11. Steve’s estimate appears conservative compared to the comment made by Recapital CEO Mr.Rosan in January 2010, when he said EBITDA estimate should reach US$340mn on 17mn ton coal production.
The swap ratio: I always wonder why DOID presentation material contains a page where the management explained about Recapital’s deal on Berau Coal (attached); now I am starting to understand. One of the bullet point on page 5 confirmed a reported transation value of US$1.4bn EV, financed with vendor support, mezzanine and senior debt. If we assume a US$300mn debt at Berau upon the day of the swap, the implied equity value will be about US$1100mn or Rp10,920bn.
DOID shares were placed at Rp1400, or a market cap of around Rp9,500bn. That is how I arrive at a hypothetical swap ratio of 1:1, between DOID and Berau Coal.
The sensitivity: What if the swap ratio is unfavorable to DOID shareholders? If we take an extreme ratio of two DOID shares equal to one Berau Coal, the enlarged number of shares for DOID will be around 20,370mn. At Rp980 and 20,370mn shares, the market cap for DOID will be around Rp19.9trn with the same net profit forecast of Rp1900bn for FY10 and Rp2400bn for FY11. The implied P/E for this “less-favorable-scenario” is 10.5x and 8.4x for FY10-11; still looks manageable for me.
The risk: (1) Sentimental sell-off: angry shareholders looking to unload at any price, (2) Seeking cash from the minority: my assumption is for a non-cash deal, where current minority holders need not top up any cash. (3) Very unfavorable swap ratio, valuing Berau Coal at a big premium compared to the pronounced EV value of US$1.4bn, and DOID at a big discount to recent placement price of Rp1400.
JP Morgan - US Coal Industry: Coking coal is cool; thermal coal is challenged by natural gas
US coal equity performance in Q1 has been driven by coking coal exposure; those with the highest exposure have outperformed the most. The rise in spot coking coal prices from the $180/t level late in 2009 to the current $230/t level has lifted expectations and the equities of coking coal miners. Operationally, the miners suffered a tough winter, which will hurt the Q1 results, but it did force supply discipline in the miners, and utility inventories seem to be falling faster than expected. Natural gas inventories have fallen, but only to average levels. Now with gas prices teetering above $4/mmBtu, coal-to-gas switching could be coming back to haunt the CAPP producers. Or maybe the gas threat will help encourage smaller CAPP miners to sell.
· he market is waiting for the annual coking coal contracts that are expected to exceed the already settled quarterly settlement. The announcements or discussion of these contracts are likely to dominate the performance of the coking coal leveraged coal equities through the quarterly reporting period.
· Massey has already highlighted that it lost sales in the first quarter, we’re assuming this was about 8% of planned production. Assuming the forward-looking commentary on pricing is positive, the weak first quarter is unlikely to disappoint too much.
· Natural gas prices are again threatening coal sales. We continue to highlight that there are practical limits to coal-to-gas switching due to the location of most gas plants on “backwaters” of the US power grid. However, this could add to utility coal inventories before the summer arrives. We do highlight that last fall it was primarily the higher priced CAPP coal that was substituted in the southeast and eastern regions.· The great CAPP coal carve-up. After several years of pressure, the smaller CAPP coal producers could be ready to sell. Massey is buying Cumberland and is immediately reloading its balance sheet with cash for the next deal. Although financially weaker, Patriot and Alpha are also likely to be seeking out synergistic tack on acquisitions.
· he market is waiting for the annual coking coal contracts that are expected to exceed the already settled quarterly settlement. The announcements or discussion of these contracts are likely to dominate the performance of the coking coal leveraged coal equities through the quarterly reporting period.
· Massey has already highlighted that it lost sales in the first quarter, we’re assuming this was about 8% of planned production. Assuming the forward-looking commentary on pricing is positive, the weak first quarter is unlikely to disappoint too much.
· Natural gas prices are again threatening coal sales. We continue to highlight that there are practical limits to coal-to-gas switching due to the location of most gas plants on “backwaters” of the US power grid. However, this could add to utility coal inventories before the summer arrives. We do highlight that last fall it was primarily the higher priced CAPP coal that was substituted in the southeast and eastern regions.· The great CAPP coal carve-up. After several years of pressure, the smaller CAPP coal producers could be ready to sell. Massey is buying Cumberland and is immediately reloading its balance sheet with cash for the next deal. Although financially weaker, Patriot and Alpha are also likely to be seeking out synergistic tack on acquisitions.
Senin, 29 Maret 2010
Laba Elnusa Melonjak 249 Persen
Jakarta (ANTARA News) - Perusahaan eksplorasi minyak dan gas, PT Elnusa Tbk (ELSA), membukukan laba bersih Rp466,2 miliar pada 2009, naik 249 persen dibanding tahun sebelumnya yang hanya Rp133,8 miliar.
Direktur Utama PT Elnusa Tbk, Eteng A. Salam dalam siaran pers Senin mengatakan, kenaikan laba bersih didorong oleh kuatnya kinerja operasi perseroan serta adanya laba hasil divestasi non core business perseroan, PT Infomedia Nusantara pada Juni 2009 lalu.
Sementara itu pendapatan usaha perseroan tercatat mengalami kenaikan 44 persen, menjadi Rp 3,66 triliun pada 2009 dibandingkan sebelumnya hanya Rp 2,54 triliun.
Eteng mengatakan segmen jasa hulu migas perseroan mencatat pertumbuhan pendapatan usaha dan laba bersih yang impresif, dengan menyumbangkan pendapatan Rp 2,26 triliun, atau 62 persen terhadap pendapatan usaha konsolidasi.
Sementara untuk segmen jasa hilir migas, mencatat pendapatan usaha Rp 1,09 triliun, segmen supporting and competency based menyumbangkan Rp 281 miliar dan jasa penunjang hulu migas menyumbangkan Rp 90,74 miliar.
Direktur Utama PT Elnusa Tbk, Eteng A. Salam dalam siaran pers Senin mengatakan, kenaikan laba bersih didorong oleh kuatnya kinerja operasi perseroan serta adanya laba hasil divestasi non core business perseroan, PT Infomedia Nusantara pada Juni 2009 lalu.
Sementara itu pendapatan usaha perseroan tercatat mengalami kenaikan 44 persen, menjadi Rp 3,66 triliun pada 2009 dibandingkan sebelumnya hanya Rp 2,54 triliun.
Eteng mengatakan segmen jasa hulu migas perseroan mencatat pertumbuhan pendapatan usaha dan laba bersih yang impresif, dengan menyumbangkan pendapatan Rp 2,26 triliun, atau 62 persen terhadap pendapatan usaha konsolidasi.
Sementara untuk segmen jasa hilir migas, mencatat pendapatan usaha Rp 1,09 triliun, segmen supporting and competency based menyumbangkan Rp 281 miliar dan jasa penunjang hulu migas menyumbangkan Rp 90,74 miliar.
Laba Bersih Medco Energi Turun 93,1%
JAKARTA - PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC) membukukan laba bersih 2009 sebesar USD19,2 Juta bila dibandingkan 2008 yang tercatat USD280,2 Juta.
Angka ini akibat keuntungan yang diperoleh dari penjualan seluruh saham PT Apexindo Pratama Duta. Hal ini berarti Medco merugi 93,1 persen tahun lalu atau laba bersih turun USD261 Juta.
"Laba bersih Perseroan tahun lalu sudah termasuk penerimaan dari pelepasan anak perusahaan-bersih setelah pajak, sebesar USD62,5 Juta. Pelepasan anak perusahaan ini merupakan realisasi dari program Optimalisasi aset perseroan yang dicanagkan sejak awal 2008," ungkap Direktur Keuangan MEDC Cyril Noerhadi usai Analyst Meeting di kantornya Jakarta, Senin (29/03/2010).
Penjualan dan pendapatan usaha lain perseroan di tahun lalu menurun menjadi USD667,8 Juta atau sebesar 48,6 persen dari USD1,3 miliar di 2008. "Penyebab utama dari turunnya penjualan dan pendapatan usaha lain adalah rendahnya harga rata-rata minyak dan gas yang terealisasi," kata Cyril.
Sementara untuk harga minyak 2008, Medco USD101 per barel, turun menjadi USD64 per barel di 2009. Sedangkan harga gas, harga 2008 USD4,2 per mmbtu, menjadi USD3,1 per mmbtu di 2009.
"Jumlah rata-rata penjualan minyak dan gas menjadi 52,8 MBOEPD dari 63,5MBOEPD. Namun di tengah krisis finansial, Medco bisa menekan beban pokok penjualan dan biaya lngsung lain di 2009 menjadi USD438,8 juta, dibandingkan USD7855,7 juta di 2008," pungkasnya.(Desy Aritonang/Trijaya/ade)
Angka ini akibat keuntungan yang diperoleh dari penjualan seluruh saham PT Apexindo Pratama Duta. Hal ini berarti Medco merugi 93,1 persen tahun lalu atau laba bersih turun USD261 Juta.
"Laba bersih Perseroan tahun lalu sudah termasuk penerimaan dari pelepasan anak perusahaan-bersih setelah pajak, sebesar USD62,5 Juta. Pelepasan anak perusahaan ini merupakan realisasi dari program Optimalisasi aset perseroan yang dicanagkan sejak awal 2008," ungkap Direktur Keuangan MEDC Cyril Noerhadi usai Analyst Meeting di kantornya Jakarta, Senin (29/03/2010).
Penjualan dan pendapatan usaha lain perseroan di tahun lalu menurun menjadi USD667,8 Juta atau sebesar 48,6 persen dari USD1,3 miliar di 2008. "Penyebab utama dari turunnya penjualan dan pendapatan usaha lain adalah rendahnya harga rata-rata minyak dan gas yang terealisasi," kata Cyril.
Sementara untuk harga minyak 2008, Medco USD101 per barel, turun menjadi USD64 per barel di 2009. Sedangkan harga gas, harga 2008 USD4,2 per mmbtu, menjadi USD3,1 per mmbtu di 2009.
"Jumlah rata-rata penjualan minyak dan gas menjadi 52,8 MBOEPD dari 63,5MBOEPD. Namun di tengah krisis finansial, Medco bisa menekan beban pokok penjualan dan biaya lngsung lain di 2009 menjadi USD438,8 juta, dibandingkan USD7855,7 juta di 2008," pungkasnya.(Desy Aritonang/Trijaya/ade)
Barito Pacific Raup Laba Rp 547,2 Miliar
Laba tersebut naik 116 persen dibanding rugi bersih pada 2008 sebesar Rp 3,3 triliun.
VIVAnews - PT Barito Pacific Tbk (BRPT) sepanjang 2009 mencatat laba bersih Rp 547,26 miliar atau naik 116 persen dibanding rugi bersih pada 2008 sebesar Rp 3,3 triliun.
Siaran pers Barito yang diterima VIVAnews di Jakarta, Senin 29 Maret 2010 menyebutkan, kenaikan laba bersih disebabkan oleh turunnya beban pokok penjualan menjadi Rp 12,64 triliun dibanding periode sebelumnya sebesar Rp 19,38 triliun.
Akibatnya, laba kotor perseroan naik menjadi Rp 1,75 triliun atau tumbuh sebesar 266,16 persen dari rugi kotor pada periode sama tahun lalu sebesar Rp 1,05 triliun.
Turunnya beban pokok yang signifikan tersebut disebabkan oleh semakin membaik dan stabilnya harga nafta, bahan baku industri petrokimia perseroan.
Harga rata-rata nafta sepanjang 2009 berada di posisi US$ 540 per metrik ton. Sedangkan pada 2008, harga rata-rata nafta sebesar US$ 832 per metrik ton.
Selama 2009, harga nafta rata-rata bulanan tertinggi mencapai sekitar US$ 706 per metrik ton dan harga nafta rata-rata bulanan terendah US$ 393 per metrik ton.
Sedangkan sepanjang 2008 harga nafta rata-rata bulanan tertinggi sempat menyentuh US$ 1.168 per metrik ton dan harga nafta rata-rata bulanan terendah US$ 293 per metrik ton.
Hingga Desember 2009, perseroan memiliki kas dan setara kas Rp 1,86 triliun atau naik 19 persen dibanding 2008 sebesar Rp 1,57 triliun.
Dengan laba bersih yang meningkat signifikan serta posisi kas dan setara kas yang besar menunjukkan perseroan merupakan perusahaan yang sangat sehat dan kuat.
Senior Vice President Barito Pacific Agustino Sudjono mengatakan, perseroan tetap optimistis dalam bisnis petrokimia di masa depan.
VIVAnews - PT Barito Pacific Tbk (BRPT) sepanjang 2009 mencatat laba bersih Rp 547,26 miliar atau naik 116 persen dibanding rugi bersih pada 2008 sebesar Rp 3,3 triliun.
Siaran pers Barito yang diterima VIVAnews di Jakarta, Senin 29 Maret 2010 menyebutkan, kenaikan laba bersih disebabkan oleh turunnya beban pokok penjualan menjadi Rp 12,64 triliun dibanding periode sebelumnya sebesar Rp 19,38 triliun.
Akibatnya, laba kotor perseroan naik menjadi Rp 1,75 triliun atau tumbuh sebesar 266,16 persen dari rugi kotor pada periode sama tahun lalu sebesar Rp 1,05 triliun.
Turunnya beban pokok yang signifikan tersebut disebabkan oleh semakin membaik dan stabilnya harga nafta, bahan baku industri petrokimia perseroan.
Harga rata-rata nafta sepanjang 2009 berada di posisi US$ 540 per metrik ton. Sedangkan pada 2008, harga rata-rata nafta sebesar US$ 832 per metrik ton.
Selama 2009, harga nafta rata-rata bulanan tertinggi mencapai sekitar US$ 706 per metrik ton dan harga nafta rata-rata bulanan terendah US$ 393 per metrik ton.
Sedangkan sepanjang 2008 harga nafta rata-rata bulanan tertinggi sempat menyentuh US$ 1.168 per metrik ton dan harga nafta rata-rata bulanan terendah US$ 293 per metrik ton.
Hingga Desember 2009, perseroan memiliki kas dan setara kas Rp 1,86 triliun atau naik 19 persen dibanding 2008 sebesar Rp 1,57 triliun.
Dengan laba bersih yang meningkat signifikan serta posisi kas dan setara kas yang besar menunjukkan perseroan merupakan perusahaan yang sangat sehat dan kuat.
Senior Vice President Barito Pacific Agustino Sudjono mengatakan, perseroan tetap optimistis dalam bisnis petrokimia di masa depan.
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