Jasa Marga reported its February 2010 traffic volume at 70.9m vehicles, or 8% lower MoM but 3% higher YoY. The lower monthly volume was due to the fewer number of days. Hence, on a daily basis, traffic volume in February was 2% higher MoM to 2.53m vehicles. The company’s average monthly traffic volume in 2009 was at 76.3m vehicles (+4% YoY). YTD to February 2010, Jasa Marga’s traffic volume reached 147.6m vehicles, or 4% higher YoY. This is within our estimates, or equates to 15% of our FY10E (960m vehicles).
Highest growth continues to come from the Padalarang-Cileunyi section, where traffic grew 20% YoY to 8.8m vehicles, and contributes 6% of the company’s total volume.
Highest volume contribution came from the inner-city Jakarta section, 20% of total volume, and posted 3% higher growth YoY to 29.4m vehicles. Second highest volume contributor was the Jakarta-Cikampek section (14%), posting 6% higher growth YoY to 20.7m vehicles.
Meanwhile, the traffic volume decline in the Prof. DR. Sedyatmo section was of 31% YoY to 8.3m vehicles, due to change in the system from “closed” to “open”. Previously, under the “closed system”, a vehicle that passed through two gates would be calculated as two transactions. However, under the current “open system”, it is calculated as one transaction.
We continue to like the stock. The company has predictable earnings and a relatively well balanced assets portfolio, in our view. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with target price of Rp2,003/share, or 12.9x P/E10E with 11% earnings growth. Our estimates assume a 5% higher traffic volume this year with 11% average tariff increase (the last tariff adjustment was in September 2009 on Jasa Marga’s 11 out of 14 toll roads by 10-19% higher). Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR.JK; Rp1,760; 1L)
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