Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG) FY08 earnings rose by 321.1% yoy to US$235mn, outpacing ours (+10.3%) and consensus estimates (+16.5%). FY08 revenue went up to US$1.3bn (+70.6% yoy), below our expectation but in-line with consensus estimates. FY08 coal sales were 17.7mn tons (- 2.2% yoy), above our expectation, with average selling price (ASP) of US$74/ton (+74.7% yoy), below expectation. On qoq basis, 4Q08 coal sales were 4.8mn tons (+8.2% qoq) which result in US$420mn revenue and US$105mn net profit.
In FY09F, ITMG plans to beef up coal output to 20.5mn tons (+15.8% yoy) with 57% fixed price, 14% based on index, 14% under negotiation, and the remaining 15% still unpriced. FY09F capital expenditure is planned at US$126mn. Meanwhile, we estimated ITMG FY09F coal output at 17mn tons with ASP of US$63/ton, translating into FY09F earnings of US$231mn (-1.7% yoy). Based on our estimates, ITMG is trading at PER09F of 4.0x.
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