United Tractors - Taking market share - Lifting EPS
For investors who look for mid-term beneficiaries of this global crisis, UNTR is an abvious candidate given its mining contracting exposure that accounts for 40% of gross profit for '09. Major foreign competitors, Leighton and Thiess, are cutting back staffs at the moment (business development division most affected), while at the same time limiting working capital allocation from HQ. For them, Indonesian business has been more resilient than that of the other countries, but they are fully aware that too big exposure to any single emerging country can lead to bond rating downgrade.
Smaller domestic competitors are having financing difficulties at the same time, which is key for importation of heavy equipment in this tight USD environment. On this finding, MacQ analyst Albert Saputro and Adam Worthington lift EPS forecasts by 2% in FY09 and 9% in FY10. DCF and PxT raised to Rp 8,400 from Rp7,200 as mining contracting mid-term market share being increased from 29% to 34%. BUY.
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