June 22 (Bloomberg) -- Oil prices moved out of a so-called ascending channel that started in April, signaling crude’s rally may falter. Crude oil for July delivery fell 2.6 percent to $69.55 a barrel on June 19, the biggest drop for the front-month contract in two weeks. It was the first close outside a channel that’s bounded intraday highs and lows during the last two months, Zug, Switzerland-based consultant Petromatrix GmbH said today.
“The ascending channel was invalidated for the first time and this clearly need to be taken as a negative,” Petromatrix managing director Olivier Jakob said in a note to clients. “The correction on Friday was very severe.”
Prices gained 60 percent from a low of $43.63 on April 21 to reach a seven-month high of $73.23 on June 11. Oil for July fell as much as 1.7 percent to $68.89 a barrel today, the last day of trading for the contract.
Traders will watch today’s close on the more-actively traded August contract to gauge whether prices are set to fall further, Jakob said. A settlement below $70 a barrel would be a bearish signal, he said. It traded at $68.68 a barrel at 11:14 a.m. London time.
Last week, analysts at FuturesTechs.com said a “high- wave” pattern on crude oil’s price chart, where daily opening and closing price are almost the same, signaled prices may fall.
The moving average convergence-divergence, a measure of price momentum, also suggested a reversal in direction, Swiss energy trader Elektrizitaets-Gesellschaft Laufenburg AG said on June 17.
To contact the reporter on this story: Will Kennedy in London at wkennedy3@bloomberg.net.
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