The International Energy Agency predicts global oil demand will rebound next year, recovering from the fastest drop since the early 1980s as the world economy emerges from its slump.
Worldwide consumption of crude oil will increase by 1.4 million barrels a day, or 1.7 percent, to 85.2 million barrels a day next year, the adviser said in its first monthly report to include a forecast for 2010. The growth will be concentrated in emerging economies outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Oil prices have advanced 34 percent this year on optimism that government stimulus will lift countries out of the worst global recession in six decades. Crude traded at less than $60 a barrel today in New York, a day before the July 11 anniversary when prices reached a record $147.27 last year.
“We expect demand to rebound based on the forecasts of major institutions,” David Fyfe, head of the IEA’s oil industry and markets division, said in an interview from Paris. “There’s still a strong note of caution. Demand data coming in for 2009 is still weak on a trend basis.”
The International Monetary Fund, in a forecast before the IEA prepared its outlook, estimated that the world economy will expand by 2.5 percent in 2010. The IEA said its 2010 view may remain “broadly unchanged” once it includes the revised IMF forecast, whose changes mainly reflected developed economies, where crude use is less intense. more...
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