>>MSCI – Two additions to MSCI Indonesia: Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (CPIN) and Kalbe Farma (KLBF). Estimated buying volume for CPIN is 43.5mn shares, for KLBF is 133mn shares.>>>
"إِنَّا مَكَّنَّا لَهُۥ فِى ٱلْأَرْضِ وَءَاتَيْنَهُ مِن كُلِّ شَىْءٍۢ سَبَبًۭا فَأَتْبَعَ سَبَبًا Sesungguhnya Kami telah memberi kekuasaan kepadanya di (muka) bumi, dan Kami telah memberikan kepadanya jalan (untuk mencapai) segala sesuatu, maka diapun menempuh suatu jalan." (QS. AL KAHFI:84-85)
>> Saham Agung Podomoro Dilepas Rp365 per Unit >>> INDY: After mkt close the major shareholders placed out a USD 200m block of stock, or about 10% of cap at 3675 (range 3600-3725) at a 5.7% discount. The placement was said to be 3X subscribed to.

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Rabu, 24 Maret 2010

JP Morgan - PT Bank Mandiri Tbk.: Better-than-expected results; rerating driver remains in place: buy on dip

· 4Q profit 43% higher than consensus; buy on dip: BMRI’s FY09 net profit was higher than the most optimistic forecast on the street, at Rp7.15T. 4Q FY09 profit was 43% higher than our and consensus estimates. The stock fell 3.8% in trading ahead of results; we see the decline as misplaced and recommend that investors accumulate BMRI.

· 25% ROE target reiterated – re-rating driver remains in place: Management reiterated a medium-term target of a 25% ROE. We see an upward ROE trajectory as a continued re-rating driver, and maintain our OW rating. Our revised Rp5,700 (up from Rp5,425) Dec 2010 PT envisages BMRI trading at an unchanged 2.5x 12M Forward P/BV at the end of FY10, and hence could be exposed to upside risk.

· Forecasts revised 10-13% higher than consensus: Our new FY10-11E EPS numbers are 10-13% higher than consensus, and we expect revisions to exert upward pressure on the stock in the near term.

· 4Q results: Margins and provisions key areas of surprise: 4Q FY09 margins rose 45bp sequentially, with both the rupiah NIM (up 34bp) and forex NIM (up 68bp) improving q/q. Asset quality improved, as NPLs declined to a better-than-expected 2.7% of loans. Loan loss coverage improved to 231%, despite no new net provisioning, and absolute NPLs declined 23% q/q in 4Q FY09. Broad NPLs declined, indicating little pressure from pipeline NPL formation.

· Continuity is a key company-level risk: Mandiri’s Board of Directors’ term expires at the upcoming AGM, and we see management and strategic continuity a potential risk to our PT. Over a period of time, lower interest rates in Indonesia could be a negative factor for margins. New accounting policies on asset quality may be a risk to forecasts, although BMRI management does not expect a detrimental impact.

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