The Statistics Agency will announce Apr10 inflation figure on Monday (3/5), which we think would remain under the influence of seasonal forces and stronger currency. We expect to see another round of deflation in Apr10 of 0.05% mom, with yoy inflation advancing to 3.70% from 3.43% in March.
Given tame inflation outlook and the rupiah’s appreciation against the US$, we think, there will be no change in Bank Indonesia’s monetary stances. BI rate likely will stay at 6.5% in the next BI’s governor-board meeting on Wednesday (5/5).
The statistics agency will announce Mar10 trade figure on the same day. We expect export growth to have increased by 59.0% yoy in Apr10 from 57.1% yoy a month earlier. Import growth may have accelerated to 63.0% yoy from 59.9% yoy in Feb10 on robust domestic demand. Overall, trade balance may widen to US$3.0bn in Mar10.
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar