We expect Jul10 inflation to reach 1.02%mom or increase 5.65%yoy in Jul10, lower than consensus estimate of 1.10%mom or 5.73%yoy.Besides the seasonally higher education costs during the beginning of schools season in Jul- Aug,the pass-through impact of electricity tariff hike in Jul10 and higher food prices as a result of climate anomaly would have driven inflation higher.
On trade data,we estimate total exports to be steady around US$12bn in Jun10, or increasing around 28%yoy from last year.Meanwhile,total imports likely continued to increase by 35%yoy supported by robust domestic demand, dragging the trade surplus to US$1.2bn from US$2.5bn in May10.
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