Ella Nusantoro’s Target Price for UNVR is based on DCF Rp14,650 (implying 22.5x 2011F PER, assuming a Target 15x 2011F market PER, only 50% premium, below historical 1.8x market multiple PER). At Rp17,150- UNVR is trading on Overvalued 32.2x-26.4x 2010F-11F PER, on the back of EPS Growth 33%-22% respectively. We recommend TAKE PROFIT UNVR and Switch into GGRM or ASII.
· Ella Nusantoro (Daily & Report attached): ULI posted weaker 2Q10 net profit (-18% QoQ) of Rp798 bn with revenue declining marginally. 1H10 results were below our estimates with Rp1.8 tn in net profit (+18% YoY), accounting for 44% of our FY10 estimate (1H09: 49% of FY09). 1H10 Revenue was up 11% YoY to Rp9.9 tn, accounting for 47% of our FY10 estimate, driven by an estimated 13% volume growth and 2% fall in ASP. The lower ASP was due to the stronger rupiah, as around 60% of its costs are US$-denominated. Opex was 25% higher YoY with operating profit rising 14% YoY.
· We maintain our UNDERPERFORM rating and target price of Rp14,650. The stock trades at a demanding valuation, double the valuation of JCI, much higher than its five-year average (80% premium to the JCI) and at the high end of its historical forward P/E band (20-25x). We continue to prefer Gudang Garam (GGRM.JK), which trades at a 45% discount to ULI.
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