The statistical agency scheduled to announce the Aug10 inflation and Jul10 trade figure on next Wednesday (1/9). We expect inflation to reach 1.14% mom or 6.84% yoy in Aug10, higher than consensus estimate of 6.65% yoy. The impact of electricity tariff hike, school-fees increase, and higher food prices during the fasting month would be the main drivers of the inflation.
On trade data, we estimate total exports to have grown 28.2% yoy in Jul10, while imports to remain strong, which are expected to grow 34% yoy in the same period. Accordingly, we expect trade surplus to hover around US$0.8bn, slightly higher compared with Jun10 figure of US$0.6bn
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