Investment Highlights:
MAPI Beats Our Forecast By 10.28%
A lower retail sales index, but the highest in the last 3 years
A double digit growth rate target despite unpredictable condition
Valuation and Recomendation
Supported with company existing strong brand equity and a wide network of stores throughout the archipelago, we believe that the company will demonstrate a significant growth and potentially achieved its double digit growth target. A lower purchasing power that might occur seems do not impacting a high class people as MAPI's business segmentation. Nevertheless, a potential loss of customers could be happened as the domestic economy condition getting worse, and it will give benefit to MAPI's rivals. We downgraded our target price from IDR 530 per share. We derived our valuation using discounted cash flow model and a terminal value of 5%. Our calculation has revealed that the fair value of MAPI share is between IDR 435.10 - IDR 466.88. Over the counter MAPI is traded with a P/E ratio of 4.20 x or far below the industry retail average P/E of 6.55 x. We still maintained our BUY recommendation with a 12 month target price of IDR 435.10 or 41.48% potential upside from its current price level of IDR 300 per share. as of february 6th, 2009.
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