General
With Geithner/Banking Package and Stimulus Package will announce next Monday we believe market regional had hit bottom and risk appetite Fund Manager up. CDS still wide but IDR looks stable. Inflation still under control by government. BI still have space to cut BI Rate on the next meeting. Liquidity still thin but start to improve Oil looks stable at $40 a barrel. CPO price looks stable at RM1,800 a ton, but on average will start climbing on January’09 after declining since June ’08. Nickel and Tin price looks stable, the industry still slow.Credit from bank remain flat even though the interest rate is down.
Sector
Bank; Credit flat, interest rate down, NIM will decrease, NPL under pressure, we believe Q1 result will be negative (YoY) on average banking sector. We put Neutral on BMRI, BBRI, BDMN and we put Sell on BBCA as a premium at the sector but we put buy on BBNI
Agro; January ’09 average price for CPO start climbing on the first time after declining since June ’08, stress production, El Nino and La Nina effect on production area for both Soybean (Argentina, Brazil, Midwest) and CPO (Malaysia, Indonesia), demand growth from India, China and European Union. We put medium bullish on this sector, accumulate for mid-term investment and we call buy AALI, LSIP and UNSP (for more risky)
Energy, we believe oil price had a limited downside, demand for oil and gasoline up 0.6% on average in fourth week. Coal price stable at average $80. Some producers had locked price for 2009 contract. Demand for energy is still strong especially from local. We put outperform on this sector. We recommended to accumulate PTBA, ITMG, UNTR and BUMI (for more risky) and Neutral for PGAS.
Another
Neutral ; Automotive, Telecommunication, Metal and cement we put Buy on Weakness
Underperform; Property, Infrastructure and Pharmaceutical
[Personal Opinion by Mod]
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar